SpaceX President and Chief Operating Officer Gwynne Shotwell has announced that the company’s upgraded Falcon 9 Block 5 rocket – debuted in May 2018 – is making its way through peak-stress launches, reentries, and landings in “much better shape than anticipated”, ultimately meaning that Falcon 9 booster refurbishment can now take as little as four weeks between flights.
At the same time, Shotwell’s industry peers and competitors continue to betray some level of real anxiety about SpaceX’s meteoric rise and technological step up with displays of hyperbolic overconfidence.
Shotwell: Falcon 9 first stages come back in much better shape than anticipated. Have refurbishment time down to four weeks; goal is still a one-day turnaround next year. #WSBW
— Jeff Foust (@jeff_foust) September 11, 2018
Speaking on a panel of launch providers at 2018’s Paris-based World Satellite Business Week conference, the discussion was rich with banter and comparatively heated comments from leaders of companies like Arianespace, ILS (International Launch Services, a commercial arm of Roscosmos), ULA, and Blue Origin, as well as SpaceX’s own Gwynne Shotwell. As effortlessly confident as ever, Shotwell’s presence and, perhaps, the general state of the industry appeared to trigger some rather brash and thoroughly entertaining fireworks from other executives.
United Launch Alliance’s Tory Bruno, CEO of a company that has literally never recovered or reused any flown hardware from one of its launches, noted that ULA’s wholly-unproven and untested strategy for reuse – unlikely to begin flight tests before the mid-2020s – would likely be superior to SpaceX’s own approach, apparently owing to the fact that the company has yet to reuse their Falcon 9 boosters dozens of times. ULA has yet to so much as announce the rocket engines it will use on its next-generation expendable rocket, known as Vulcan, expected to conduct its first-ever launch no earlier than the second half of 2020. Their current Atlas 5, Delta II, and Delta IV launch vehicles are and will remain 100% expendable up to the end of their careers.
ULA’s Tory Bruno talks up component (engine) recovery the company is planning; notes that despite SpaceX technical successes with landing and reuse, haven’t yet demonstrated ability to reuse stages large number (10-20) times. #WSBW
— Jeff Foust (@jeff_foust) September 11, 2018
Nevertheless, ILS President Kirk Pysher didn’t let Bruno steal all of the allotted braggadocio, making the humorous claim that “our customers don’t care about reusability” so long as “their launch is on time, reliable, and at the right price point”. Indeed, if one could actually launch a fully expendable rocket at a price point competitive with an organically-priced reusable rocket (i.e. no artificial inflation to recoup $1 billion of investment in the tech, which SpaceX is choosing to do), Pysher’s statement would be 100% accurate. Instead, ILS can lay claim to no more than a tiny fraction of commercial launch contracts today, dramatically hobbled by the fact that development of the company’s only potential competitive advantage – Proton Medium – has been indefinitely frozen, likely killing the rocket.
Reusability: “…our customers don’t care about reusability as far as their launch is on time, reliable and at the right price point…” Kirk Pysher #ILS #WSBW
— Francesca De Florio (@FDF) September 11, 2018
All things considered, Shotwell remains a breath of fresh air in an increasingly stale group, stoic, factual, and straightforward in the face of cantankerous and withering titans of the rocket industry. Speaking last week to a Masters of Business Administration class in Madrid, Spain, Shotwell bluntly and rather accurately stated that “with the advent of SpaceX, I think everyone in the industry is happy except other launch providers.” Much like other similar sessions at conferences earlier this year and otherwise, today’s conference panel of launch provider executives certainly serves to drive home just how correct the SpaceX President is.
“I believe #Space presents huge opportunities. It would be great if this panel would double the size in 10 years time.” #GwynneShotwell #SpaceX #WSBW pic.twitter.com/IRC3IGziB7
— Francesca De Florio (@FDF) September 11, 2018
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1 likes 5 days ago
You should be striving to actually beat your customer, and naming something you think you can actually do before your competitor does.
0 likes 5 days ago
Gwynne Shotwell has announced that the company’s upgraded Falcon 9 Block 5 rocket – debuted in May 2018 – is making its way through peak-stress launches, reentries, and landings in “much better shape than anticipated”, ultimately meaning that Falcon 9 booster refurbishment can now take as little as four weeks between flights.
Considering the goal is gas-and-go, I would take “better than anticipated” as meaning no refurbishment required at all. The author’s interpretation of four weeks refurbishment required has no basis. That is just the demonstrated time between re-use flights and no indication that this would have been much shorter if the rocket could have been turned around quicker.
0 likes 4 days ago
