News: Energy

In a rather ironic twist, Tesla and its Powerwall 2 battery have been added to the list of choices for South Australia’s Home Battery Scheme, which aims to provide subsidies to 40,000 homes. The inclusion of the Powerwall 2 battery to the subsidy scheme comes amidst the ongoing progress of Tesla’s ambitious Virtual Power Plant in the region.

The update, which was recently reported by One Step Off The Grid, noted that Tesla’s 13.5kWh lithium-ion home battery systems are now eligible for the full AU$6,000 (US$4,300) subsidy offered by the SA government. As an additional means to attract buyers, Tesla has set up a temporary stall at the Rundle Mall in Adelaide, to showcase its battery storage technology. As noted by the Australian-based publication, though, customers are being informed that the installation of Powerwall 2 batteries would likely involve a lot of waiting.

Solar Quotes’ Ronald Brakels, who visited the Tesla pop-up store, was reportedly informed that there is an estimated 12-week waiting period for Powerwall 2 batteries. Brakels further added that he was quoted AU$9,300 (US$6,600) for the Powerwall 2 and the installation after the AU$6,000 (US$4,300) subsidy is applied. That’s still a substantial amount, and would likely be out of reach for some homeowners who are in need of a system that can lower their power bills.

This was among the concerns that were raised last year when South Australia’s Home Battery Scheme was announced as a possible replacement for Tesla’s Virtual Power Plant project. Not long after he was elected, South Australia premier Steven Marshall expressed his opposition to Tesla’s proposal of establishing a 250 MW/650 MWh virtual power plant comprised of 50,000 residential homes and Powerwall 2 batteries. As an alternative, Marshall proposed a subsidy program instead, which would lower the price of battery storage units for 40,000 homes.

“(Former Premier Jay Weatherill) was doing (Tesla’s Virtual Power Plant) for Housing Trust homes in South Australia… That’s not part of our plan. What we are going to do is provide a subsidy to get (those with) solar rooftops systems with some storage capacity,” Marshall said before shortly before he was sworn in last year.

Marshall’s plan had stark differences with Tesla’s plan for a Virtual Power Plant. For one, the battery subsidy would be offered to homes that are already equipped with solar panels. Apart from this, homeowners would be required to purchase their own batteries, albeit at a discounted price. Tesla’s Virtual Power Plant, on the other hand, plans to provide solar panels and Powerwall 2 batteries to 25,000 Housing Trust households and 25,000 private low-income homes for free.

Seemingly after receiving flak for his lack of support for Tesla’s Virtual Power Plant, Marshall eventually took a softer stance on the project. By the end of May 2018, Energy Minister Dan van Holst Pellekaan announced that the South Australian government would be pursuing Tesla’s Virtual Power Plant and Marshall’s Home Battery Scheme side-by-side.

Since then, Tesla’s Virtual Power Plant has completed its first phase, which involves the installation of solar panels and batteries to the first 100 houses in the system. Marshall’s Home Battery Scheme, on the other hand, was launched last October, and is expected to add up to 400 MWh of storage to the state’s grid when complete. Ultimately, the 400 MWh from Marshall’s Home Battery Scheme would be a nice addition to the 650 MWh of energy storage that would be provided by Tesla’s Virtual Power Plant once all 50,000 residential units are connected and online.

Visionaries like Elon Musk, who are aiming for a world powered by sustainable energy, would be proud of the industry’s progress in 2018. Over the course of the year, investments flowed into research, the prices of batteries declined, governments across the globe supported clean energy solutions, and electric vehicles such as the Tesla Model 3 led the charge in transitioning the transportation sector away from fossil fuels.

A study from Bloomberg New Energy Finance has noted that in 2018, global annual energy storage more than doubled, reaching 9 GWh, and it is currently on pace to rise another 78% this year. In August 2018, the cumulative sales of electric cars passed the 4 million mark as well, and NEF analysts expect the EV industry to surpass 5 million in sales in the first quarter of 2019. Even in the United States, where companies like Tesla are struggling to meet the demand for their residential energy products, deployments on a rated-power basis across the country rose 57% to an estimated 338 KW after three years of flat to negative growth.

At the core of all this growth are the advancements in battery technology. Producers of batteries have ramped their operations to meet increasing demand, from China’s BYD Co. Ltd. to South Korea’s LG Chem to Japan’s Panasonic Corp. and its US partner Tesla. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence notes that by 2028, the combined manufacturing capacity of these battery producers would likely reach at least 1,330 GWh. That’s about ten times greater than the entire’s industry’s total capacity entering 2018.

In an email to S&P Global Market Intelligence, Simon Moores, managing director of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, mentioned that the scale of recent battery projects signifies a change in the market. Moores also pointed out that while the emergence of electric cars is notable, the rise of energy storage has been impressive as well.

“When you see projects now being planned at over 1 GWh in scale, when only 18 months ago a 300-MWh installation was something to behold, you know you have entered a new era. It has been quite interesting to watch the battery makers’ dilemma of where to send the lithium-ion cells. Of course, they have contracts to honor with automotive producers, but the order inquiries from [energy storage] producers have been incredible,” Moores said.

One thing that is working in favor of renewables today is the falling prices of batteries and clean energy as a whole. Tom Buttgenbach, president and CEO of developer 8minutenergy Renewables LLC, described this in a statement to S&P Global Market Intelligence.

“I can beat a gas peaker anywhere in the country today with a solar-plus-storage power plant. Who in their right mind today would build a new gas peaker? We are a factor of two cheaper,” he said.

Buttgenbach’s statements echo the words of Tesla Chief Technology Officer JB Straubel, who noted last year that the age of fossil fuel powered peaker plants is at an end. Speaking to the San Francisco Chronicle, Straubel stated that batteries, even at their current state, are already starting to prove themselves as superior to conventional energy solutions.

“I think what we’ll see is we won’t build many new peaker plants, if any. Already what we’re seeing happening is the number of new ones being commissioned is drastically lower, and batteries are already outcompeting natural gas peaker plants,” the Tesla CTO said.

While the progress of batteries has been impressive, though, Logan Goldie-Scot, head of energy storage at Bloomberg NEF, has stated that the past year exhibited uneven growth among different regions across the globe. South Korea, for one, saw a rise in energy deployments, while territories like the United Kingdom took a step back. In the United States, extreme demand such as those faced by Tesla Energy for products like the Powerwall 2 also caused delays in installations. Yet, despite these, Goldie-Scot stated that 2018 was a turning point for energy storage nonetheless.

“Even though progress was uneven, there was a much greater consensus in 2018 over the importance of energy storage, even in the near term, in major markets. In 2017, there were still a lot of people talking about how energy storage was not necessarily a competitive solution and was going to be limited. I hear those conversations much less now. Energy storage is now becoming more integrated into resource plans,” she said.

Amidst this transition, companies such as Tesla are taking the battle to heart. Last November, for example, Tesla opened the doors of Gigafactory 2 in Buffalo, NY to select members of the media. During the media visit, Tesla noted that it is aiming to ramp operations in the site with more hires, and that the 1.2-million sq ft facility is already running 24/7, with employees alternating 12-hour shifts. Tesla’s Gigafactory 2 is expected to play a huge role in the company’s energy business, considering that it is the site where the Solar Roof tiles, the company’s flagship solar product, are being manufactured.

As Cyclone Owen barreled towards north Queensland in Australia last week, Tesla decided to roll out the Powerwall 2’s “Storm Watch” feature, a function designed to help households prepare for possible power outages during severe weather disturbances. The update marked the first time that Tesla activated the special feature outside of the United States.

Storm Watch works by detecting incoming weather disturbances and prioritizing available power towards keeping backup functions. With the function enabled, the Powerwall 2 would automatically charge and attempt to maintain maximum capacity, allowing the battery to provide backup power when needed. The feature made its debut in the US last August, following an update on the Tesla mobile app.

Australian customers in the north town of Townsville received the update last weekend. Tesla, for its part, noted in a statement to local publication Renew Economy that the decision to activate the feature in the region was taken centrally by the company. Customers were notified of the Storm Watch feature through their mobile app, and they were informed that the function would be active until the weather event ends. Powerwall 2 owners were further notified that the battery system’s operations would revert back to their previously-selected mode after the cyclone.

Tesla’s release of Storm Watch for Powerwall 2 users in Australia seems to have been a strategic move for the company. Cyclone Owen, after all, proved to be severe, dumping what Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) dubbed as “incredible” and “very intense” rain over parts of Queensland’s north tropical coast. Some farmers in the area reported over 700 mm of rain, with 120 mm being dumped by the cyclone every hour. Ultimately, Owen was downgraded to a tropical low on Saturday, but the damages it caused were notable nonetheless. Speaking to ABC News, sugar cane grower Paul Mizzi noted that he had to tip out at least 60 mm of water every hour to prevent his land from being overwhelmed by the cyclone.

“We barely slept last night, checking the rain gauge and tipping out at least two inches [60mm] every hour. It’s a totally different flood, I’ve been out there this morning on the tractor checking paddocks and we’ve had paddocks wiped out,” he said.

Tesla’s Powerwall 2 might be among the more understated products from the electric car maker, but the home battery units are incredibly impressive nonetheless. Last October, for example, a Northern California man in PG&E’s electrical service territory ended up having his electricity cut off due to high risks of fire in his area. PG&E opted to shut off power for 42 hours, and the Powerwall 2 battery kept the lights on for the entire duration of the outage. By the time the power came back on almost two days later, the home battery unit still had 9% charge remaining.

The Powerwall 2 is also a central part of one of Tesla’s most ambitious energy projects to date — the South Australia Virtual Power Plant — which will involve 50,000 connected households equipped with solar panels and home battery storage units. Together, the system is expected to deliver 250 MW of solar energy and 650 MWh of battery storage capacity, dwarfing the highly-successful Hornsdale Power Reserve.

If humans had the ability to predict protein structure solely from DNA information, it would be a medical superpower against disease, and artificial intelligence is our best hope thus far to obtain it. Such a feat is now one step closer with the creation of “AlphaFold”, a neural network designed by Google’s AI company DeepMind, to do that very thing. After entering a biannual protein folding prediction contest called the Critical Assessment of Structure Prediction (CASP), AlphaFold was declared winner out of 98 AI competitors, specifically by most accurately predicting 25 of 43 protein shapes given using genetic sequences alone. The second place winner predicted only three.

In a nutshell (or smaller, really), proteins are key factors in every living thing’s physiological processes. Their structures are encoded in DNA, and they are responsible for contracting muscles, metabolizing food into energy, fighting disease, and transmitting signals, among a great many other things. The function of proteins depends on their unique 3D structure. The way they are shaped is directly related to what they do in the body. For example, antibodies have “hooks” that attach and tag viruses and bacteria, and ligament proteins are cord-shaped, enabling them to transmit tension.

The being said, the ability to predict protein shapes can enable scientists to learn more about how defects specifically affect the body, repair damaged ones with targeted therapies, and design new ones. Their specific structure is key – the 3D shape determines a protein’s function. To further illustrate this importance, misfolding proteins are linked to many health issues such as type 2 diabetes and Parkinson’s disease.

Some medical progress has been made to address protein folding issues such as drug therapies that bind to proteins and alter their function; however, the human body is able to generate around 2 million different types of proteins, and so far we can only identify about 100,000 of them. Out of those proteins, the variety of folded 3D structures possible is calculated to be a googol cubed – 10 to the power of 300. Clearly, this is not really a job for a human. As further described on DeepMind’s website, “[According to] Levinthal’s paradox, it would take longer than the age of the universe to enumerate all the possible configurations of a typical protein before reaching the right 3D structure.”

DeepMind is no stranger to achieving incredible things with its AI software. A program built by the company called “agent” learned to play 49 different retro computer games in 2015, making it the first computer program capable of independently learning a large variety of tasks. Two other programs named “AlphaZero” and “AlphaGo” were able to beat the world’s best human and computer players at chess and the ancient Chinese game “Go”, respectively. AlphaGo was later revised as “AlphaGo Zero” to play the same Go game without any prior human knowledge, i.e., it taught itself to play and subsequently win.

AlphaFold was trained with thousands of known proteins until it could accurately predict those proteins’ 3D shape. This was a significant improvement over other existing technology, not only in levels of accuracy, but in cost-effectiveness. Other protein identification techniques such as cryo-electron microscopy and nuclear magnetic resonance depend on a lot of trial and error, which involves years of work and several thousands of dollars per protein structure to achieve. Considering the complexity involved in this field, the AlphaFold’s achievement in the CASP contest is, to say the least, representative of the expanding possibilities for scientific research and discovery using artificial intelligence.

A Google X division company named Makani has designed a giant “kite” that can generate enough wind energy to power about 300 homes. Named the “M600” after the 600 kW of electricity produced by its movement, the craft resembles a sport glider with two levels of multiple propellers on the front, more generally described as an aerodynamic wing. After more than ten years of development and a prototype test flight in 2016, M600 has begun full size testing in Hawaii this year to continue its journey towards becoming a portable power solution that can be brought anywhere with sufficient wind to propel it.

The functionality of M600 is fairly straightforward. After being connected to a 1400 foot high-strength tether, it uses 8 onboard motors to climb from a 15-foot base station to its determined altitude (about 1000 ft) with a small amount of voltage power. Then, it transitions into crosswind where it flies in 800 foot wide loops lasting 10-25 seconds each to generate maximum power via onboard computers guided by data from sensors, GPS, and an inertial navigation system.

The rotation of the 85 foot wide kite’s rotors drives magnet motors/generators on board, producing electricity that transfers down the tether where it can be connected to an energy grid. The electricity comes down in DC (direct current), but is converted to AC (alternating current) at its base station.

The M600 wind power kite during testing in Hawaii. | Credit: Makani/X Development LLC

The M600 wind power kite during testing in Hawaii. | Credit: Makani/X Development LLC

The M600 wind power kite during testing in Hawaii. | Credit: Makani/X Development LLC

The M600 wind power kite during testing in Hawaii. | Credit: Makani/X Development LLC

The M600 wind power kite during testing in Hawaii. | Credit: Makani/X Development LLC

The M600 wind power kite during testing in Hawaii. | Credit: Makani/X Development LLC

One of the needs driving Makani’s kite is accessing wind sources that aren’t practical or cost-effective in today’s markets. Its mass is about 10% of a conventional wind turbine with similar output thanks to the carbon fiber materials it’s primarily made from. The lighter, portable design of the M600 could help bring wind energy to areas devastated by natural disasters and places where coastal waters are too deep for other wind systems to sit on the seabed.

Google’s X division (under the broader parent company Alphabet Inc.) is a secretive development factory dedicated to radical innovations that solve the world’s toughest problems. It provided the initial funding for Makani’s kite technology as part of its 2007 RE<C initiative and officially graduated the company into X in 2013. As part of X, the company is working towards the one of the division’s missions of promoting global adoption of renewable energy and developing airborne wind energy technology.

Makani is not the only company developing flying wind generators. The “airborne wind energy” (AWE) industry is full of competitors developing their own versions. As a new clean energy technology, though, AWE companies face an uphill battle in becoming commercially viable due to research and development costs that take years, a problem faced by many new industries overall. However, as the technology comes to market and matures, AWE could follow the path forged by traditional turbine wind power which is now competitive with fossil fuels. A recent report by IDTechEx projected AWE will become a multi-billion dollar industry within 20 years.

The Makani team is continuing to develop more advanced versions of its wind energy kite while discussing the technical and economic integration aspects of the technology with industry experts. Initial ground and hover tests of the kite begun in Hawaii in August this year. In the coming weeks, the full 85-foot commercial version of the M600 will finally be tested.

Watch the below video to see the M600 prototype in action:

Tesla’s ambitious plan to establish a 250 MW/650 MWh “Virtual Power Plant” in South Australia is moving to its second phase. In an announcement last week, Minister for Energy and Mining Dan van Holst Pellekaan stated that initiatives are now underway to install Powerwall 2 home battery units and solar panels to another 1,000 Housing SA properties.

The proposed Virtual Power Plant was conceived by Tesla and South Australia’s former Labor government earlier this year. The project is undoubtedly ambitious, involving 50,000 connected homes, each fitted with a 13.5 kWh Tesla Powerwall 2 battery and a 5 kW rooftop solar system. The 50,000 houses are expected to deliver 250 MW of solar energy and 650 MWh of battery storage capacity. Just like Tesla’s Powerpack farm in South Australia, the VPP will be capable of providing additional grid stability by shifting demand away from a stressed grid during peak hours.

The first phase of the project, which involved the installation of batteries and solar panels to the first 100 houses of the VPP, has been successful so far. Households that are part of the existing system have reported a 70% reduction in their grid consumption, leading to lower power bills. With the first trial phase done, Tesla and solar retail partner Energy Locals are now looking to add 1,000 more households to the system.

Tesla’s planned Virtual Power Plant passed through several challenges this year, particularly after the Labor Party was replaced by the Liberal Party after the elections last March. In an announcement after being elected, new South Australian Premier Steven Marshall suggested that his government would not be supporting Tesla’s VPP. Marshall’s government instead proposed an alternative, involving subsidies for 40,000 homes to purchase battery systems.

Unlike Tesla’s proposed Virtual Power Plant, Marshall’s plan would require homeowners to purchase battery packs (albeit at a lower price), making the system out of reach for low-income households. Marshall’s plan is also limited to houses that are already fitted with solar panels. Tesla’s VPP, on the other hand, aims to provide both solar systems and Powerwall 2 batteries to 50,000 low-income households for free. 

Marshall eventually took a more moderate stance on Tesla’s Virtual Power Plant amidst backlash over his lack of support for the project. By the end of May, Energy Minister Dan van Holst Pellekaan announced that the South Australian government would be supporting both Tesla’s proposal and Marshall’s alternative battery subsidy plan. In an announcement last week at the SA Department of Energy and Mining’s official website, van Holst Pellekaan expressed his optimism about the growing VPP.

“The VPP will deliver cheaper electricity to some of South Australia’s most disadvantaged households while increasing the reliability of the state’s electricity network. We have made South Australia the world capital of home batteries with our Home Battery Scheme attracting three battery manufacturers to South Australia and by driving forward with the VPP,” he said.

If the second phase of the Virtual Power Plant proves successful, the third, most ambitious phase of the project will commence. Provided that funding for the estimated AU$800 million ($628 million) project is secured, the system would grow to 50,000 homes over the next few years. When complete, the 50,000-strong Virtual Power Plant is expected to deliver 250 MW of solar energy and 650 MWh of battery storage capacity, dwarfing the highly successful Hornsdale Power Reserve near Jamestown, which has a 100MW/129MWh capacity.

Watch Tesla’s teaser for the South Australia Virtual Power Plant in the video below.

If recent announcements by Tesla are any indication, the Solar Roof tiles will see a production ramp next year. Unveiled in October 2016, the Solar Roofs, which are PV modules that have the appearance of traditional roofing materials, were received warmly, with Tesla noting that the product was sold out “well into 2018” within the first few weeks of reservations being opened.

One of these reservation holders was Amanda Tobler. After initially living in a rental house from 2002 to 2004, Amanda and her family moved to a CA townhousein 2004, where they stayed for 12 years. The Toblers attempted to get solar panels installed on their townhouse then, though they were unsuccessful due to the area’s homeowners association prohibiting rooftop solar systems. Things changed in 2016, when Amanda and her family moved to a two-story suburban home in the Bay Area. This time around, the Toblers was free to add a solar system for their house.

The home that the family acquired, which was built in 1965, had an aging stamped metal roof that was nearly ready for replacement. In an emailed statement to Teslarati, Amanda noted that when they heard about the Solar Roof tiles, her family immediately thought that the product would be a perfect fit for their new home. Within days of Tesla opening reservations for the shingles in May 2017, the Toblers put down their $1,000 deposit.

In July 2017, Tesla sent someone over the home to conduct a site survey. As a way to determine the size of the PV system which would best fit the Toblers’ needs, Tesla asked for copies of past utility bills. Amanda notes that her family actually consumes a fair amount of power every month, especially since they charge two plug-in vehicles — a Nissan Leaf and a Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid — on a consistent basis. Considering the family’s average energy consumption, Tesla opted to install a 9.9 kW Solar Roof system on the house, paired with one Powerwall 2 unit.

A Solar Roof tile installation on a residential unit. [Credit: Amanda Tobler]

A Solar Roof tile installation on a residential unit. [Credit: Amanda Tobler]

A Solar Roof tile installation on a residential unit. [Credit: Amanda Tobler]

The Toblers’ home fitted with Tesla’s “Textured” Solar Roof tiles. [Credit: Amanda Tobler]

Tesla only manufactures two variants of the Solar Roof tiles today — Textured and Smooth — though other options such as Tuscan and Slate are due to enter production in the near future. In Amanda’s case, she opted for the Textured Solar Roof variant. Just as luck would have it, the Toblers’ home ended up becoming the first residential Solar Roof installation in the country, partly due to the roof’s simple design and the house’s proximity to the Fremont factory.

“I was told that we were chosen because we live in the Bay Area, which is convenient to the Tesla factory in Fremont. Additionally, we have simple roof lines, and they wanted a straightforward install in the beginning,” Amanda stated.

The Solar Roof installation took place in early March 2018. The entire process took about three weeks to complete, partly due to rains and Tesla’s discovery of a cedar shake roof underneath the house’s metal roof. Despite her house being built in 1965, and despite Tesla having to haul away two roofs instead of one, Amanda notes that the installation process, including the setup of the Powerwall 2 unit, remained seamless nonetheless. Even the permits for the solar system, which are required for homeowners, were handled by the electric car maker.

“Tesla took care of all permitting and getting permission to operate the solar roof. We did e-signing for plenty of documents in this process, but I didn’t have to complete any of them outside of providing a signature and date,” Amanda noted.

The Toblers were permitted to activate their Solar Roof tiles two weeks after the project was complete. Considering that the roof covered around 2,000 square feet, and that 40% of the tiles were solar, Amanda notes that the $62,000 she paid for the 9.9 kW system was not too far from the cost of a new premium roof and conventional solar panels. That said, she did mention that if her house didn’t really need new roofing, she probably would have opted for traditional solar panels instead to save on costs. Nevertheless, the homeowner pointed out that the aesthetics and functionality of the Solar Roofs have been worth the investment so far.

The average stats for the Toblers’ Solar Roof over the past seven months. [Credit: Amanda Tobler]

The average stats for the Toblers’ Solar Roof over the past seven months. [Credit: Amanda Tobler]

A sample of the Solar Roof tiles’ daily stats. [Credit: Amanda Tobler]

A sample of the Solar Roof tiles’ daily stats. [Credit: Amanda Tobler]

At its peak, the Toblers’ Solar Roof tiles provided enough power for the family’s needs. [Credit: Amanda Tobler]

“The main value is that we got the new roof we needed and the solar we wanted in a slick package. Of course, the product is considerably more expensive than regular solar panels—you’re getting a roof and solar panels. If you consider the cost of purchasing a high-end roof with solar panels in the Bay Area, the cost wouldn’t be that far off from the cost of the Solar Roof.”

The Solar Roof tiles have held up well over the past seven months since the system was installed. The day after the Solar Roof tiles were activated, the homeowner woke up to her roof producing 4 kW of power, with 0.4 kW flowing straight into the house and the rest charging her Powerwall 2. At its peak during summer in June and July, the Solar Roof tiles were producing about 60 kWh in one day, which was more than enough to power the Toblers’ house and their two plug-in vehicles. As the days got shorter and more overcast amidst the approaching winter, though, the Solar Roof tiles generated less energy, now producing about 20 kWh a day.

Amanda’s observations with her Solar Roof tiles echo those of another Solar Roof early adopter, Tri Huynh from Northern CA. In an interview with Alex Guberman of E for Electric earlier this year, Tri noted that his Solar Roof installation, which covers his 1,000 square foot roof, produces about 3 kW during days when skies are overcast. While the generated power is not enough to charge his three Powerwall 2 batteries, Tri noted then that his Solar Roof helps him lower his electricity bill nonetheless.

When Elon Musk unveiled the Solar Roof tiles, he candidly remarked that the shingles, if they prove successful, could end up being a “Keeping up with the Joneses” situation. In Amanda’s case, her Solar Roof had attracted a notable amount of curiosity from her neighbors, especially when the system was being installed. Once it was operational, interested members of her community also paid a visit to Toblers’ home to learn about how the Solar Roof worked. That said, the homeowner notes that the attention her Solar Roof attracts has mellowed down since.

Tesla’s Solar Roof variants — Smooth, Textured, Tuscan, and Slate. [Credit: Tesla]

While the Solar Roof has performed well since it went online earlier this year, Amanda notes that the system still has some room for improvement. Her Powerwall 2, for one, faults about once a month, which makes the battery storage unit appear like it had lost connection with the system. So far, the Toblers have been manually resetting the Powerwall 2 to address the fault. In the event that the family is not home, Amanda states that the system eventually detects the error and automatically resets the Powerwall 2 after about four hours. Amanda describes these faults as a “minor annoyance,” particularly since the rest of the system has been consistently operating smoothly.

Tesla’s energy business, led by industrial-grade batteries like the Powerpack and novel residential products like the Solar Roof, is expected to see notable growth in the coming years. Billionaire investor Ron Baron, for one, estimates that Tesla Energy would likely be worth $500 billion on its own by 2030, equal to his estimates for the company’s more well-known electric car business. Considering that Tesla’s electric cars and energy products form an ecosystem of renewable solutions, the adoption of products like the Solar Roof would likely be as quick as the products’ production ramp.

During Tesla’s third-quarter earnings call, Elon Musk explained that the production of the Solar Roof is taking longer than expected due to the tiles’ long development cycle. The Tesla CEO did state, though, that Solar Roof production should see a production ramp in 2019. This was highlighted in a later announcement on Twitter, with Musk listing the solar tiles as one of Tesla’s high-priority products, directly after the Model Y. With Tesla focusing on both its electric car and energy business in 2019, the number of customers buying into the full Tesla ecosystem would likely increase. Amanda, for her part, notes that her family might do just that.

“The success of the vehicles played a big part of us choosing to trust Tesla in being a part of early solar roof adopters. It is very possible that we’ll become Tesla vehicle owners in the future,” she said.

Elon Musk recently noted on Twitter that Tesla would be prioritizing the production of its Solar Roof tiles this coming 2019. These updates were announced not long after the company invited local media from Buffalo, NY to tour Gigafactory 2, the company’s facility which is producing the unique solar shingles. As Tesla continues to prepare for the ramp of the Solar Roof tiles next year, a recent patent has been published outlining a design that would allow the company to offer colored variants of the solar shingles without compromising any functionality.

Tesla’s recent patent, titled “Uniformly and Directionally Colored Photovoltaic Modules,” was published last Thursday. In the document’s background, Tesla noted that PV modules are usually blue, dark blue, or black because these are the natural color of solar cells. Considering that homeowners have preferences in their roofing material’s color, though, there is a need for the Solar Roof tiles to have varying shades and textures. There are currently several conventional ways to colorize PV modules, such the utilization of tinted glass and/or encapsulation sheets. That said, such systems are prone to absorbing large amounts of sunlight, which results in PV power loss. The appearance of standard colored PV modules also tends to degrade over time.

“Shading, or absorption of incident sunlight, causes PV power loss, a consequential problem of existing coloring techniques. In addition, colored PV modules manufactured with these techniques, and colored glass more generally, commonly suffer from: sparkle, or glint; flop, or angle-dependent color appearance; and graininess. Note that sparkle refers to glint or localized bright spots. Flop, on the other hand, usually refers to angle-dependent color, i.e. an angular dependence of the peak reflected wavelength. The term flop, or light-dark flop, can also refer to angle-dependent brightness, i.e. an angular dependence of total reflectivity.”

An illustration of Tesla’s patent for its colored Solar Roof tiles. [Credit: US Patent Office]

An illustration of Tesla’s patent for its colored Solar Roof tiles. [Credit: US Patent Office]

An illustration of Tesla’s patent for its colored Solar Roof tiles. [Credit: US Patent Office]

Tesla’s system for its colored Solar Roof tiles utilizes a rather clever system to avoid the drawbacks of conventional PV module coloration methods. Instead of using traditional solutions like tinted glass, Tesla’s design employs a texturized surface of a glass cover that has a color filter layer, as well as a “transparent material with a predetermined refractive index.” Following is Tesla’s description of its colored Solar Roof tiles’ design.

“Embodiments of the present invention can produce PV roof tiles with a uniform color with little light absorption. As a result, a high proportion of the incident light (of colors other than the module’s intended color) is transmitted to the PV cells. To facilitate uniform coloring of PV modules and roof tiles, the inside surface of a top glass cover can be texturized, and a transparent material with a predetermined refractive index or combination of refractive indices can be deposited on the texturized surface. Such a micro-textured or frosted glass cover can display significantly less sparkle, flop, and graininess than conventional glass covers, thus improving color uniformity and appearance. Customizable directional coloring, and intentionally controlled angle-dependent color, can provide further aesthetic options, while still performing efficiently for solar conversion. It is also possible to produce a layer of sphere-shaped metal nanoparticles on the inside surface of the glass cover.

“These nanoparticles can produce colors efficiently while absorbing little light. Another feature described herein is directional coloring of PV modules or roof tiles. The texturized surface of a glass cover can have a color filter layer covering one or more facets of the texture. This color filter can include multiple thin film layers formed using a directional thin film deposition technique, such as chemical or physical vapor deposition (CVD or PVD), e.g. sputtering. The coating layer can be deposited by coating the textured glass surface in one or more directions. Such directional coating can reduce unwanted light absorption by the color filter, while still providing a uniform color appearance to viewers at a certain viewing angle.”

Tesla opted to design the colored Solar Roof tiles with textured “micro-structured” glass, which feature surface roughness on the order of 100 nm to 10 μιη. This allows the colored Solar Roof tiles to display a uniform color with little light absorption and less sparkle, flop, and graininess than conventional colored glass. The colored shingles’ design also provides customizable directional and multi-directional coating, improving the aesthetics of the Solar Roof tiles themselves while still being optimized for solar conversion.  

Following is a comparison of conventional colored PV modules (504 and 508) and Tesla’s coloration system (502 and 506), showing how the electric car maker’s micro-structured glass design addresses sparkle, or glare; flop, or angle-dependent coloring. 

The Solar Roof tiles are Tesla’s flagship residential solar product. Designed to mimic the appearance of conventional roofing materials while offering all the advantages of solar panels, the Solar Roofs are an excellent way for homeowners to utilize a PV system without compromising the aesthetics of their home. The shingles were warmly received when they were unveiled back in 2016, though the production and installation of Solar Roof tiles are yet to ramp. Elon Musk explained the delay in the shingles’ production ramp during the third quarter earnings call.

“We’ll also start going into volume production of the solar tile roof next year. That’s quite a long development cycle for — because anything that’s roof has got to last 30 years. So even if you do accelerate life testing as fast as possible, there’s still a minimum amount of time required to do that. And there’s a lot of engineering that goes into how do you put on the solar tile roof with a — and not be really labor-intensive in doing so. So there’s a lot of engineering not just in the tile but in the way it’s done,” Musk said.

Back in July, Tesla CTO JB Straubel noted that the company is “aggressively” ramping its capacity to produce and deliver its residential solar products, stating that “No one should see us as stepping back from solar. In fact, it’s the opposite. It’s like with Model 3. People have come flooding in and are waiting on the product. So now we’re aggressively ramping our capacity.”  

The full text of Tesla’s patent for its colored Solar Roof tiles could be accessed here.

Over the course of this year, Tesla’s executives such as CEO Elon Musk and CTO JB Straubel have remarked that the company’s energy business is growing at a rapid rate. Recent reports from Buffalo, NY indicate that this growth will soon be evident in the operations of Tesla’s Gigafactory 2, particularly since the production ramp of the company’s flagship solar product — the Solar Roof tiles — is now going through its initial phases. 

Tesla recently invited local news outlets on a guided tour of Gigafactory 2. The tour was the first time reporters were given access to the 1.2-million sq ft facility, and while the media were not allowed to film anything inside the factory itself, Tesla did provide a number of updates about Gigafactory 2 and the Solar Roof tiles. First off, Tesla noted that there are currently around 800 employees (comprised of Tesla and Panasonic workers) working on the site. This number is ahead of the facility’s targets, which require 500 workers to be employed on the site by April 2019. Gigafactory 2 is also running 24/7, with workers alternating 12-hour shifts.

The guided tour was led by director of operations Ryan Nungesser, who is in charge of Gigafactory 2. Nungesser, a former US marine platoon commander, was employed by the electric car and energy company after his tenure at Boston Scientific, where he worked several roles including Director of Production and Director of Materials Management. While Elon Musk himself has reportedly not visited the facility in person, the former marine and the CEO regularly keep in touch through weekly webcast meetings. Addressing the local media personnel on the tour, Nungesser remarked that the facility maintains a collaborative atmosphere, thanks to Tesla’s flat hierarchy.

Tesla reportedly had to work through notable bottlenecks in the development, testing, and production of the Solar Roof tiles, which are designed to be incredibly durable and last the lifetime of a house. Dan Miner, a reporter for Buffalo Business First, nevertheless noted that Tesla is confident that it currently has a “repeatable, efficient process” that would allow the company to begin the production of the Solar Roof tiles in greater volumes. Tesla declined to give details on the current output of the facility, though the company has stated that there is a long waiting list of Solar Roof customers that would likely keep the factory busy for years.

As the facility prepares to ramp the production of the Solar Roof tiles, Tesla managers in the facility are expecting the addition of new manufacturing lines. Another hiring ramp is also expected in the near future. Corey Leone, a facilities maintenance technician at Gigafactory 2 who previously worked at a coal-burning plant in Dunkirk, noted to Rochester First News that his experience over the past three years has been quite positive.

“To be able to come here and do green energy, to go from coal to this, it’s been an amazing journey. I’ve been here almost three years. It’s been a fantastic ride,” he said.

Tesla’s Solar Roof tiles are a pivotal part of the company’s plan to promote “sustainable energy independence.” While the cost of the Solar Roof tiles is far higher than conventional solar panels for now, Tesla noted in its Q2 2017 Update Letter that the shingles, which look like regular roofing materials but are capable of capturing power from the sun, would be far more affordable in the future.

“Adopting solar has historically required a degree of aesthetic compromise, but Solar Roof provides clean energy from a better-looking roof. Furthermore, Solar Roof is more affordable than conventional roofs because in most cases, it ultimately pays for itself by reducing or eliminating a home’s electricity bill,” Tesla noted.

As mentioned by Elon Musk during the third quarter earnings call, the production of the Solar Roof tiles is taking longer to ramp due to the shingles’ long development cycle. Musk did state, though, that the production of the Solar Roof tiles should hit its stride sometime next year.

“We’ll also start going into volume production of the solar tile roof next year. That’s quite a long development cycle for — because anything that’s roof has got to last 30 years. So even if you do accelerate life testing as fast as possible, there’s still a minimum amount of time required to do that. And there’s a lot of engineering that goes into how do you put on the solar tile roof with a — and not be really labor-intensive in doing so. So there’s a lot of engineering not just in the tile but in the way it’s done,” Musk said.

In the spirit of constant innovation, Tesla’s batteries and energy storage products continue to see improvements over time. From improving energy density to more efficiencies in manufacturing, Tesla’s energy products are evolving just as fast as the company’s electric cars. Such improvements were teased by Tesla President of Automotive Jerome Guillen. In a recent interview with CNBC, Guillen remarked that the company’s batteries are always dynamic, and are in a constant process of improvement.

“We are improving the design of the cell. The design of the cell is not frozen. It evolves, and we have a nice roadmap of technology improvements for the coming years,” said.

Tesla’s upcoming ramp of its energy products is coming at the perfect time. Amidst Tesla’s push to increase the production of its energy products, as well as the company’s efforts to achieve $100 per kWh in battery cell costs, the renewable energy market itself is also making huge strides.  

The results of a recent analysis from research firm Lazard has revealed that wind and solar energy costs in the United States have finally reached a point where they are becoming more and more competitive with traditional power sources, such as those derived from coal. And that’s without tax subsidies. With subsidies in the picture, the cost advantages of renewable energy over coal are even more notable.

Lazard’s levelized cost of energy (LCOE) analysis concluded that US onshore wind energy costs now average between $26/MWh and $56/MWh without subsidies. Solar energy, on the other hand, averages around $36/MWh and $44/MWh with no subsidies involved. In comparison, the average cost of US existing coal plants is between $27/MWh and $45/MWh.

With such competitive costs, renewable energy is currently challenging coal generation. And the movement is spreading — in the Upper Midwest, Xcel Energy’s utilities have revealed plans to retire about 50% of their coal-fired capacity in the coming years. To replace these facilities, Xcel is looking to wind energy. In a statement to Utility Drive, Xcel CEO Ben Fowke stated that the lowering price of sustainable energy is a large factor for the company’s push towards wind power.

“We’re looking at [wind energy prices] in the low teens to low 20s [in dollars/MWh] — not starting prices, but levelized across the 25-year life of the project. That beats gas, even at today’s prices,” he said.

Considering that wind and solar power are not ever-present, though, the key to a shift to sustainability lies in solutions such as industry-grade battery storage systems, which are capable of storing and distributing energy. This is where Tesla Energy comes in. In a statement to the San Francisco Chronicle back in September, Tesla CTO JB Straubel noted that grid-scale battery solutions such as Tesla’s Powerpacks, which are easily scaled and are reliable, are starting to become an ideal alternative to fossil fuel-powered solutions.

“I think what we’ll see is we won’t build many new peaker plants, if any. Already what we’re seeing happening is the number of new ones being commissioned is drastically lower, and batteries are already outcompeting natural gas peaker plants,” Straubel said.

Such changes are becoming more notable in the United States. Just recently, the state of California announced that it had approved PG&E’s proposal to build a record-breaking 2.2 GWh battery storage project to replace three gas-powered plants. In South Dakota, BP plc has also installed a Tesla battery storage system in at one of its wind energy farms. While BP’s 212 KW/840 kWh battery storage system is not as large-scale as the recently announced CA project, the company has noted that the installation could be expanded in the future.

Wood Mackenzie, a research firm, estimates that the world’s shift from fossil fuels to renewables could happen as early as 2035. At this time, the company expects electric cars, wind power, and solar power to be more prevalent than gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles, as well as fossil fuel-based electricity. Wood Mackenzie notes that the shift towards renewables will hit a tipping point when EVs and clean energy solutions achieve a 20% market share. With this in mind, Tesla’s ramp of its energy business could not come faster.