LNG: TESLARATI

There are many criticisms of electric vehicles like Teslas, and one of them involves the notion that EVs require massive amounts of water to produce the lithium in their batteries. This idea, according to Dr. Maximilian Fichtner, who serves as the Director at the Helmholtz Institute for Electrochemical Energy Storage in Germany, is not accurate at all. 

In a recent conversation with Tagesspiegel Background, the battery researcher stated that the production of electric car batteries is not as extreme as what EV critics would suggest. To produce the lithium needed for a 64 kWh battery pack, for example, Fichtner stated that about 3840 liters of water are evaporated according to usual calculation methods. This is roughly comparable to the production of 250 grams of beef, 30 cups of coffee, or half a pair of jeans, according to the researcher. 

Explaining further, Fichtner stated that even before electric cars like Teslas became popular, lithium was already being used in large quantities in many industrial and chemical processes. Lithium-ion batteries are also widely used in mobile devices, which are universally accepted today. “I’m always surprised that the public never talks about lithium in laptops or mobile phones – but suddenly it’s a problem with the e-car,” the battery researcher said. 

But the water consumption involved in the production of lithium for electric car batteries is just the tip of the iceberg. Fichtner estimates that a 64 kWh pack is likely in the middle of various variants of the Tesla Model 3 sedan, whose long-range versions can easily go beyond 450 km (280 miles) of range per charge. If one were to infer that an electric car battery pack can remain optimal with 2,000 full charging cycles, this could equate to a total distance of about 900,000 km. And that’s with estimates on existing battery technology. 

With this in mind, it appears that Tesla’s lithium-ion batteries are actually less polluting than otherwise everyday items such as steak or the aforementioned 30 cups of coffee, since they have the potential to remain in service for a very long time. About 2,000 charging cycles, after all, would likely equate to years of average EV use.

Companies like Tesla are hard at work in improving their battery cells. This much is hinted at by Tesla executives such as CEO Elon Musk and President of Automotive Jerome Guillen, both of whom have noted that Tesla’s batteries are always evolving. Fichtner expects electric car batteries to have an average lifespan of 3,000 cycles by 2025, which would make EV batteries even more environmentally-friendly. 

In his recent conversation with the publication, the researcher discussed one of the most sensitive topics surrounding battery production: cobalt. Cobalt has developed a very negative reputation due to the abhorrent conditions in cobalt mines in areas such as Congo. Fortunately, many automakers have since pledged to source the cobalt used in their EVs from areas that meet stringent standards. Tesla does this and more, with the electric car maker attempting to develop cobalt-free batteries in the near future. 

For now, electric car makers are in a game of cobalt reduction, and in this sense, Tesla has a notable lead. The batteries used in Volkswagen’s well-received ID.3 hatchback, for example, contain about 12-14% cobalt. The Tesla Model 3, on the other hand, only contains about 2.9% cobalt as of 2018. Fichtner predicts that if things go well, cobalt-free batteries could enter the market as early as 2025. 

Maximilian Fichtner received his Ph.D. in Chemistry/Surface Science with distinction and the Hermann Billing Award for his thesis in 1992. He currently serves as the professor for Solid State Chemistry at the Ulm University and Executive Director of the Helmholtz Institute Ulm for Electrochemical Energy Storage (HIU). He has also worked in collaboration with the German ministries of Economy and Research and Education, and has served as the Chair of the 1st International Symposium on Magnesium Batteries in 2016.

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The Taycan is one of Porsche’s biggest announcements in recent years, and the company’s first crack at an all-electric performance car recently received top marks in terms of crash-test safety ratings from the European New Car Assessment Programme (Euro NCAP). The announcement comes shortly after news that the Tesla Model X was given the same 5-stars with a stellar 98 rating on adult occupant safety.  The tests for the Taycan were performed in December 2019.

Euro NCAP noted that Taycan’s safety score, while only performed on the 4s variant of the Taycan, would apply to the 4s Plus, the Turbo, and Turbo S trims.

In terms of the Adult Occupant, Euro NCAP noted: “The passenger compartment of the Taycan remained stable in the frontal offset test. Dummy readings indicated good protection of the knees and femurs of the driver and passenger. Porsche showed that a similar level of protection would be provided to occupants of different sizes and to those sitting in different positions. In the full-width rigid barrier test, protection of all critical body areas was good or adequate for both occupants, with the exception of the rear passenger’s chest, for which dummy readings of compression indicated a marginal level of protection.

“In the side barrier impact, protection of all critical body areas was good and the car scored full points in this tests. In the more severe side pole test, protection of the chest was adequate and that of other body areas was good. Tests on the front seats and head restraints demonstrated marginal protection against whiplash injuries in the event of a rear-end collision. A geometric assessment of the rear seats also indicated marginal whiplash protection. The standard-fit autonomous emergency braking (AEB) system performed well in tests of its functionality at the low speeds at which many whiplash injuries occur. However, the Taycan was not awarded the points for these tests as good dynamic performance in the front seats is a prerequisite for AEB scoring.”

In the past, Porsche’s vehicles have received positive ratings from Euro NCAP. In 2014, the Porsche Maycan received a five-star rating, and in 2017, the Cayenne received the same top score. Quite interestingly, the Porsche Taycan’s 5-star rating also matches the stellar scores earned by the Model 3, Tesla’s more affordable sedan.

The Taycan was unveiled by the German automaker in early September in three simultaneous events in Canada, Germany, and China. Porsche’s first attempt at an electric sports car was introduced at the Toronto, Canada event by Porsche Executive Board Member for Sales and Marketing Detlev von Platen, who was adamant that the Taycan would help the automaker transition into the electric vehicle market. “The Taycan links our heritage to the future. It carries forward the success story of our brand – a brand that has fascinated and thrilled people the world over for more than 70 years. This day marks the start of a new era,” von Platen said.

Watch Euro NCAP’s crash tests on the Taycan below. A full report can be obtained here.

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SpaceX’s workhorse Falcon 9 rocket is ready for the company’s 12th launch this year, set to send a reused Cargo Dragon spacecraft on its way to the International Space Station (ISS) and conclude with a surprise drone ship landing attempt.

SpaceX is about eight hours out from launching CRS-19, set to become Cargo Dragon’s 20th orbital mission and 19th space station rendezvous and resupply. It will also be the second time a single Cargo Dragon capsule flies its third orbital mission and the eight Dragon reuse overall, continuing proof that SpaceX is by far the leading global expert in launch vehicle and orbital spacecraft recovery and reuse.

Set to lift off no earlier than 12:51 pm ET (16:51 UTC), December 4th, CRS-19 will see flight-proven Cargo Dragon capsule C106 launch atop a new expendable trunk and upper stage, as well as a new Falcon 9 booster – an increasingly unusual sight. After a Falcon Heavy Block 5 launch completed earlier this year, SpaceX passed a threshold where it had recovered more boosters after launch than it had expended, equating to 40+ successful landings. Since Falcon 9 Block 5 – a reusability and reliability-focused upgrade – debuted in May 2018, sooty (i.e. flight-proven) boosters have become an increasingly common sight.

Between Falcon Heavy’s two 2019 launches, four new boosters marked their flight debut, while Falcon 9 missions have only debuted two new boosters – soon to be three after CRS-19. In other words, as of today, 7 of Falcon 9’s 9 2019 launches have involved flight-proven boosters – more than 75%. In fact, Block 5 is proving so robust that SpaceX has actually intentionally slowed down booster production at its Hawthorne, CA factory, hoping to instead treat its currently flightworthy rockets as a true fleet, cycling through them to launch dozens of missions.

Cargo Dragon with a (rare) side of drone ship

Beyond the rarity of a new booster’s launch debut and Cargo Dragon’s increasingly impressive history of reusability, CRS-19 – as discussed at length in earlier articles – will also see Falcon 9 booster B1058 attempt to land aboard drone ship Of Course I Still Love You (OCISLY) some 350 km (200 mi) downrange. Aside from CRS-17’s Crew Dragon explosion-related drone ship landing in May 2019, all CRS mission booster recoveries since April 2016 have landed (or at least attempted to land) at SpaceX’s Cape Canaveral-based LZ-1 or LZ-2 landing pads.

Close to shore by average drone ship landing standards but a cross-country jaunt compared to CRS-17’s unusual May 2019 booster landing aboard OCISLY, SpaceX explained the odd booster recovery plans in a routine prelaunch press conference yesterday afternoon.

“[After Dragon is deployed and CRS-19’s launch concludes], SpaceX is going to perform an…ambitious coast test, requiring larger propellant margins that must be withdrawn from Falcon 9’s own landing propellant budget.”

Teslarati — December 3rd, 2019

In short, SpaceX needs to leave more propellant for the upper stage, thus limiting B1058’s ability to boost all the way back to the Florida coast. Instead, it will only partially slow its Eastbound velocity, still leaving enough margin for drone ship OCISLY to station relatively close to the Florida coast compared to more common (and more demanding) booster recovery profiles.

All told, SpaceX says Falcon 9’s upper stage will attempt to perform a six-hour coast (“thermal test”) after CRS-19, concluding with a final Merlin Vacuum engine reignition and deorbit burn, similar to a test performed after CRS-18’s recent July 2019 launch. These tests are meant to satisfy what SpaceX described as the requirements of “other customers”, of which the USAF is by far the best known for its long-duration coast demands. For an upper stage powered by cryogenic liquid fuel, remaining fully functional for hours in orbit is one of the single greatest technical challenges that face modern rocketry.

Tune in around 12:30 pm ET (16:30 UTC) at the webcast below to watch Falcon 9’s CRS-19 launch and landing live.

Check out Teslarati’s newsletters for prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket launch and recovery processes.

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The Porsche Taycan may be seeing some delays in its production schedule, but the all-electric vehicle from Stuttgart’s premier sports car maker continues to attract a lot of interest nonetheless. And if a recent statement from Klaus Zellmer, president and CEO of Porsche Cars North America, is any indication, it appears that the Taycan is starting to attract veteran EV adopters, particularly those who are existing Tesla owners. 

In a statement to CNBC during the LA Auto Show, Zellmer stated that out of “thousands” of potential US customers who have shown a “sincere interest” in the Taycan, Tesla owners are among the largest groups among non-Porsche owners. The Porsche North America CEO stated that this was a surprise, but it is a very pleasant one considering the loyalty of Tesla’s customer base. 

“They currently drive a Tesla, they’re open to experiencing something new now. We’re very happy about that. We were actually surprised right from the get-go to see Tesla be so much in the foreground as a potential source of business,” Zellmer said. 

This statement has been interpreted by Tesla critics as a sign that the Taycan is starting to eat into the Silicon Valley-based electric car maker’s customer base. While this may be the case in some cases, there is a good chance that there is a completely different reason behind Tesla owners’ interest in the Taycan. A lot of it has to do with the price of the Taycan itself, as well as its target demographic. 

It should be noted that before the Model 3, Tesla exclusively produced premium electric cars that competed in the luxury market. This means that before the Model 3, Tesla’s customers were comprised mostly of upper-tier households that can afford the premium price commanded by the flagship Model S sedan and Model X SUV. This particular demographic also tends to be fully capable of keeping two or more vehicles in their garages. 

Considering that the most affordable Taycan, the Taycan 4S, is more expensive than the top-tier Model S Performance, there is a good chance that Porsche’s all-electric sports car is attracting the interest of customers who can afford a thoroughbred sports EV and a Tesla if needed. This is especially true considering that Tesla is focusing most of its efforts in the Model 3, a vehicle that is roughly half the price of the cheapest Taycan, and about a third of the price of the mid-tier Taycan Turbo.  

In conclusion, the interest in the Taycan coming from existing Tesla owners bodes well for the electric car movement as a whole. In Porsche’s part, this means that its first foray into the modern all-electric car is seeing interest from some of the most experienced EV owners in the market. This also bodes well for Tesla, as it shows that the company has conditioned its customers to explore other options, but only those that are also all-electric. This is very encouraging, as Tesla is now attempting to disrupt the mid-tier market with the Model 3, a vehicle that is accessible to far more customers than the Model S and X. 

As for the bearish thesis that the Porsche Taycan is “stealing” sales from Tesla, this might not hold water at all. Experienced EV buyers, especially those that have owned Teslas in the past, are aware that the Taycan is priced above the Model S despite having far less range and less driver-assist systems like Autopilot. Thus, these customers are likely not “leaving” Tesla because Porsche’s EV is “far superior.” Instead, they are likely purchasing the Taycan for what it truly excels at: a driving experience that echoes the best that Porsche can offer.

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Speaking in a press briefing prior to NASA’s next Cargo Dragon launch, a SpaceX official shed some light on a surprise Falcon 9 drone ship landing planned for Wednesday, revealing the circumstances behind the unique decision.

A few days ago, it became clear that SpaceX and NASA and decided to perform a drone ship booster landing attempt after Cargo Dragon’s CRS-19 launch, an unusual trajectory compared to the more typical return-to-launch-site (RTLS) Landing Zone recoveries. Teslarati discussed this quandary earlier today.

“As it turns out, this Falcon 9 landing is a bit of mystery: it’s unclear why exactly SpaceX has decided to land the booster at sea instead of the usual Landing Zone recoveries that have followed most recent Cargo Dragon launches. Typically, the low insertion orbit (~200 km x ~390 km) and relatively low mass of Cargo Dragon (less than 10 tons or 22,000 lb) means that Falcon 9 has (literally) tons of propellant left over, giving it the margins needed to flip around, cancel out a huge amount of horizontal velocity, and boost 100+ km (62+ mi) back to shore.

Instead, new Falcon 9 booster B1058 is scheduled to land aboard drone ship OCISLY some 350 km (220 mi) downrange, an unusual distance. For reference, SpaceX’s May 2019 CRS-17 mission is the only time Falcon 9 has landed at sea after a CRS launch since CRS-8, the rocket’s first successful drone ship recovery. That scenario was forced because LZ-1/2 had coincidently been showered in Crew Dragon debris after C201 exploded during testing. Even then, OCISLY was stationed just 20 or so kilometers offshore, meaning that Falcon 9 B1056 still performed a routine Return To Launch Site (RTLS) landing in spirit.”

Teslarati.com — December 3rd

According to Jessica Jensen, SpaceX’s director of Dragon mission management, the actual reason behind Falcon 9 B1058’s surprise drone ship landing is relatively simple and was more or less one of the possibilities posed earlier today at Teslarati.

“[It’s] also possible that CRS-19 will follow in the footsteps of CRS-18, which sported a prototype Falcon 9 upper stage designed to push the enveloped of its orbital longevity. Falcon 9 B1056 still managed to land at LZ-1 after CRS-18, but a more ambitious follow-on test could potentially require much more propellant, accounting for the drone ship’s position further downrange “

Much as predicted, SpaceX is essentially going to perform an even more ambitious coast test, requiring significantly larger propellant margins that took away from Falcon 9’s own landing propellant budget. For whatever reason, the gray coating covering the CRS-18 upper stage’s RP-1 (refined kerosene) tank is not present on Falcon 9. Based on a picture taken of the horizontal rocket by a NASA Social CRS-19 attendee, CRS-19’s upper stage looks no different than any other.

Jensen says that the coast test will be performed for unspecified “other” customers, presumably referring to the US Air Force (USAF) and other commercial customers interested in direct-to-geostationary (GEO) launch services. Direct GEO launches require rocket upper stages to perform extremely long coasts in orbit, all while fighting the hostile vacuum environment’s temperature swings and radiation belts and attempting to prevent cryogenic propellant from boiling off or freezing solid. In simple terms, it’s incredibly difficult to build a reliable, high-performance upper stage capable of remaining fully functional after 6-12+ hours in orbit.

Although SpaceX said that the test was for “other” customers, that may well have been a cryptic way to avoid indicating that one such customer might be NASA itself. NASA is in the midst of a political battle for the Europa Clipper spacecraft’s launch contract, which is currently legally obligated to launch on NASA’s SLS rocket. Said rocket will likely cost on the order of >$2 billion per launch, meaning that simply using Falcon Heavy or Delta IV Heavy could save no less than ~$1.5 billion. Incredibly, that means that simply using a commercial launch vehicle could save NASA enough money to fund an entire Curiosity-sized Mars rover or even a majority of the cost of building a dedicated Europa lander. Such a launch would demand every ounce of Falcon Heavy’s performance, including a very long orbital coast.

Regardless of the prospective beneficiaries of SpaceX’s planned Falcon 9 upper stage test, CRS-19 is scheduled to launch no earlier than 12:51 pm EST (16:51 UTC), December 4th. High upper-level winds may delay the mission 24 hours to December 5th but for now, it remains on track for Wednesday.

Check out Teslarati’s newsletters for prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket launch and recovery processes.

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Tesla has registered a wholly-owned subsidiary in the Middle Eastern territory of Israel, a move that will allow the company to sell electric cars and mobile energy storage systems in the country that borders the Mediterranean Sea.

Tesla registered “Tesla Motors Israel” around two weeks ago with the country’s Registry of Foreign Companies. The reason for the registered subsidiary appears to be Israel’s strict regulations on vehicle imports in the country. Israel’s governing body of transportation, The Motor Vehicle Division of Misrad Hatachbura, does not allow vehicles to be imported from countries that are not registered in Israel.

Tesla’s attempt to bring its successful fleet of electric cars and alternative energy sources to Israel comes just six months after the Ministry of Energy is planning the construction and installation of at least 2,500 battery-powered vehicle charging stations by mid-2020, according to YNetNews.com.

The company has stated that its operation in Israel will be “importation, distribution, sale, maintenance, and repair of electric vehicles and mobile energy storage systems, energy generation systems and equipment, including solar panels, solar energy systems, and/or other solar energy conversion systems,” on the Registry of Foreign Companies.

While the company has been successful in selling its electric vehicles in countries outside its home in the United States, it will also look to bring sustainable and alternative forms of energy by using its solar roof tiles and home battery storage systems in Israel, a country with a rich history in solar energy that dates back to the 1950s.

In the transportation sector, Tesla will be competing with the likes of BMW, Porsche, and Renault, who have supplied Israeli citizens with electric cars most recently. The most affordable electric vehicle in Israel is currently the Renault ZOE, available for 129,990 Israeli New Shekels, or $37,431 USD. Tesla will likely maintain the ability to challenge the ZOE with its Model 3, the affordable sedan it began delivering to U.S. owners in July 2017. The Model 3 Standard Range starts at about $35,000 but is only available for order in Tesla stores or through a phone call.

Israel is one of twelve countries in the world to propose a complete phase-out of fossil fuels by 2030 according to a report from the Times of Israel. The Energy Ministry says that it plans to completely halt the use of petrol-based products in favor of natural gas or electric power. Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz said, “We intend to reach a situation in which Israel’s industry will be based on natural gas, and most importantly, transportation in Israel will be based on natural gas or electricity,” during an energy conference in the most populated Israeli city of Tel Aviv. “From 2030 onwards, the State of Israel will create alternatives and will no longer allow the import of cars that run on gasoline and diesel fuel.” While they will still utilize natural gas, the overall goal is “zero pollutants,” according to Steinitz.

Tesla’s continuance of branching out to new countries and territories is an understanding that the sustainability goal will not come from simply fixing things in its home country of the United States. Musk’s goal of becoming environmentally-sustainable is a worldwide goal, and with the help of a government that seems to take the global climate change as a serious threat, Tesla and Israel can work together to fight emissions.

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Early reports of Tesla Model Y being equipped with a towbar and towing capabilities are all but confirmed based on several recent sightings of the all-electric crossover with a tow hitch.

During Model Y’s official unveiling in early 2019, keen-eyed observers took notice of a plastic cutout on the vehicle’s rear bumper that looked similar to the tow hitch cover plate found on the Model X. Tesla Chief Designer Franz von Holzhausen would later confirm that Model Y would be able to tow, in his brief encounter with a Swedish magazine.

In the recent Model Y sightings at Supercharger stations captured by @mattdgonzales, the vehicle’s tow hitch was clearly visible, further validating that the upcoming, mass-market crossover will be able to pull small trailers and campers. This feature, in addition to the optional 7-passenger interior, would be ideal for larger families that have a penchant for the outdoor lifestyle.

The Model Y’s trailer hitch. (Credit: Twitter/@mattdgonzalez

Credit: Twitter/@mattdgonzalez

The Model Y has been sighted on public roads in the past, starting in October 2019 when a prototype was captured on a road near Tesla’s headquarters in Palo Alto, California. In early November, a Red Multi-Coat Model Y with testing equipment was spotted on California’s Route 17 highway by a Tesla driver.

The Model Y will be available in four different variations, including single motor Standard Range and Long-Range, dual-motor All-Wheel Drive, and dual-motor Performance. Tesla is expecting the first deliveries to begin in the Summer of 2020. Model Y The car will range in price from $39,000 to $61,000, with initial production of US and European units to begin at Tesla’s Fremont, California factory. Tesla Model Y for the Asian market will be produced at Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai, China.

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Tesla may soon see more opportunities in China, as the country adopts a more aggressive target for EV sales by 2025. These targets could bode well for Tesla, whose Gigafactory 3 is expected to produce Made-in-China versions of the company’s mass-market vehicles, the Model 3 sedan and the Model Y crossover. 

China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology posted a draft policy on Tuesday stating that the country is aiming to have about 25% of new cars sold by 2025 to be electrified. This is more aggressive than its previous goal, which called for all-electric vehicles, fuel-cell cars, and plug-in hybrids to account for over 20% of new vehicle sales by 2025. 

Individuals familiar with the matter have informed Bloomberg that a previous version of the draft policy included an even more ambitious target, which called for electrified vehicles to account for 60% of new car sales by 2035. This portion of the draft policy was reportedly taken out, but the country is nonetheless pursuing its EV goals aggressively. Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of China Passenger Car Association, expressed his thoughts on these updated goals. 

“There are always uncertainties in technology breakthroughs and it is more prudent to set a target for a closer time frame like we see here. Demand for new energy vehicles may recover over the next two years and the 2025 target set in the policy seems reasonable,” Cui said. 

China’s more aggressive EV targets come at a time when the country is looking to reclaim its momentum in the electric car transition. Over the past years, China’s EV market has shown tremendous growth, but in recent months, the industry has slowed down, bogged by government subsidies that were scaled back. Being the world’s largest market for EVs, China’s slowdown in recent months has started affecting the global EV sector. 

Tesla, for its part, could play a key role in China’s efforts to push its EV sector further. Led by the Made-in-China Model 3, Tesla could provide some healthy competition to local EV producers while attracting new car buyers to a fully-electric form of transportation. The Model Y, a crossover vehicle that will compete in one of the auto sector’s most competitive markets, is also expected to see healthy demand in the Chinese market.

Both vehicles are expected to be produced at Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai, which is already operational. So far, Gigafactory 3 has been awarded a mass-production license and is only waiting for its final permits before deliveries to local customers could begin.

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SpaceX’s next Falcon 9 launch and landing is well into the late stages of preparation, leaving the company approximately 24-48 hours away from its next mission to orbit. To support the surprise ocean landing, a drone ship has already been dispatched and recently departed Port Canaveral.

After a frenetic week of preparation, tugboat Hawk departed with drone ship Of Course I Still Love You (OCISLY) on December 1st, preparing for its second recovery attempt in roughly three weeks and SpaceX’s second drone ship landing after a rare, six-month rocket landing lull. In the days leading up to the anticipated departure, workers could be seen performing a routine procedure often nicknamed a “FOD-walk” in which a given surface is scoured for Foreign Object Debris (FOD). This is most commonly performed on runways (including aircraft carriers) and attempts to mitigate or fully prevent damage from rocks and other small debris.

In the case of Falcon booster landings, the rocket’s Merlin 1D engine exhaust velocity is just shy of 3000 m/s (6700 mph), meaning that a tiny rock or leftover rocket piece could almost immediately become a high-subsonic or supersonic projectile in the seconds before touchdown. The drone ship itself is most at risk, but those theoretical projectiles could potentially bank off the platform’s exhaust shields and hit the booster itself, causing far costlier damage.

And hence the FOD-walk pictured above. Once complete, OCISLY was cleared for departure and has since made it about 75% of the way to its planned landing zone coordinates. SpaceX is currently scheduled to launch Cargo Dragon resupply mission CRS-19 on a Falcon 9 rocket no earlier than 12:51 pm EST (16:51 UTC) on December 4th, although a specific weather condition may delay the instantaneous window by 24 hours. Hawk and OCISLY should thus arrive on station one or two days before launch.

As it turns out, this Falcon 9 landing is a bit of mystery: it’s unclear why exactly SpaceX has decided to land the booster at sea instead of the usual Landing Zone recoveries that have followed most recent Cargo Dragon launches. Typically, the low insertion orbit (~200 km x ~390 km) and relatively low mass of Cargo Dragon (less than 10 tons or 22,000 lb) means that Falcon 9 has (literally) tons of propellant left over, giving it the margins needed to flip around, cancel out a huge amount of horizontal velocity, and boost 100+ km (62+ mi) back to shore.

Instead, new Falcon 9 booster B1058 is scheduled to land aboard drone ship OCISLY some 350 km (220 mi) downrange, an unusual distance. For reference, SpaceX’s May 2019 CRS-17 mission is the only time Falcon 9 has landed at sea after a CRS launch since CRS-8, the rocket’s first successful drone ship recovery. That scenario was forced because LZ-1/2 had coincidently been showered in Crew Dragon debris after C201 exploded during testing. Even then, OCISLY was stationed just 20 or so kilometers offshore, meaning that Falcon 9 B1056 still performed a routine Return To Launch Site (RTLS) landing in spirit.

In short, the ~350-km-downrange landing plan suggests that this Cargo Dragon launch may have a much smaller propellant margin than essentially every similar mission preceding it. This could be explained in a few ways. Maybe after Falcon 9 B1050’s surprise landing failure, SpaceX decided that all new Falcon 9 boosters will attempt drone ship landings after their first flight, minimizing the risk to Cape Canaveral in the event of a CRS-16 repeat. Another possibility, Crew Dragon capsule C205 – scheduled to support the spacecraft’s In-Flight Abort (IFA) test late this month or early next – may still be close to the Cape’s Landing Zones, another reason to avoid even the slightest chance of a catastrophic Falcon landing failure.

Finally, it’s also possible that CRS-19 will follow in the footsteps of CRS-18, which sported a prototype Falcon 9 upper stage designed to push the enveloped of its orbital longevity. Falcon 9 B1056 still managed to land at LZ-1 after CRS-18, but a more ambitious follow-on test could potentially require much more propellant, accounting for the drone ship’s position further downrange. With any luck, we’ll find out more later today during SpaceX, NASA, and the US Air Force’s routine pre-launch press conference – stay tuned!

Check out Teslarati’s newsletters for prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket launch and recovery processes.

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