LNG: TESLARATI

SpaceX has completed its 13th and final launch and landing of the year and decade, marked by a Falcon 9 booster’s successful return to Port Canaveral and subsequent processing to prepare it for another orbital-class mission.

Over the course of that recovery, SpaceX broke the record for the fastest Falcon 9 processing by several hours, a small but significant step towards the company’s ultimate goal of launching and landing the same Falcon 9 booster in less than 24 hours. Additionally, SpaceX appears to have finished processing booster B1056 on December 21st, the 4th anniversary of Falcon 9’s first successful landing after an orbital-class launch.

Since that first success on December 21st, 2015, SpaceX has rapidly moved through several distinct iterations of Falcon hardware, constantly improving components, systems, and the overall fit, finish, and reliability of the rocket. Over the last four years, SpaceX has landed an incredible 47 Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy boosters as part of 60 orbital-class launches, while the company recently launched Falcon 9 B1048 for the fourth time and flew the same two Falcon Heavy boosters in April and June. Ultimately, 2019 has been a spectacularly successful year for SpaceX, and – by the numbers – 2020 is set to be several times more ambitious, still.

On December 20th, less than a day after arriving in Port Canaveral, SpaceX technicians began the process of retracting Falcon 9 booster B1056’s four deployed landing legs. As it turns out, B1056 – returning to port for the second time after its third launch – became the first Falcon 9 booster to have all of its landing legs successfully (and semi-permanently) retracted in May 2019. To accomplish the feat, SpaceX designed a custom retraction mechanism that simultaneously serves as the crane jig used to lift the booster while vertical.

“The crux of the need for a relatively complex crane-and-jig method of leg retraction rests on SpaceX’s landing leg design. Put simply, after rapidly deploying with a combination of gravity and hydraulics, Falcon 9 landing legs have no built-in way to return to their stowed state. Each of the four legs are quite large, weighing around 600 kg (1300 lb) and stretching about 10m (33 ft) from hinge to tip. They use an intricate telescoping carbon fiber deployment mechanism to give them legs enough strength to stand up to the stresses of Falcon 9 booster landings.

Combined, the legs’ size and telescoping mechanism makes the addition of an onboard retraction mechanism impractical. All the needed hardware would struggle to find a good place for installation and would quite literally be dead weight during launches and landings, stealing from Falcon 9/Heavy payload capacity and generally serving no purpose until a booster has been lifted off the ground with a giant crane.”

Teslarati — May 7th, 2019

Impressively, SpaceX took less than an hour and a half to successfully retract all four of thrice-flown Falcon 9 B1056’s also thrice-flown landing legs. Less than three hours after the rocket’s legs were snugly retracted, SpaceX immediately attached a second crane and brought the booster horizontal. Altogether, this made Falcon 9 B1056’s third recovery the fastest SpaceX has ever performed by 3-6 hours – seemingly small progress but still no mean feat.

SpaceX’s fastest-ever Falcon 9 recovery – from the drone ship berthing to the booster departing the port on a transporter – occurred with B1049 after its third launch and landing, taking just 2.01 days (48.25 hours). Falcon 9 B1056’s third recovery appears to have beaten that record by at least several hours, brought horizontal and installed on a SpaceX transporter perhaps less than 1.75 days (42 hours) after arriving in port – more than 10% faster than B1049’s previous record.

Meanwhile, SpaceX lifted a fairing half recovered off the surface of the Atlantic Ocean by GO Ms. Tree, appearing unharmed after having potentially been dropped when the ship’s secondary (fairing) fishing net tore while moving the Falcon 9 hardware.

With any luck, that fairing half will be in good enough shape to be reused on a future Starlink mission, seemingly unlikely but proven to be well within the realm of possibility after SpaceX’s very first fairing reuse involved two halves recovered off the ocean surface after Falcon Heavy Block 5’s April 2019 debut. B1056, however, is all but guaranteed to fly again – this time on its fourth launch – in the near future. SpaceX has dozens of launches planned in 2020, so there will be plenty of opportunities.

Check out Teslarati’s newsletters for prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket launch and recovery processes.

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During the early morning hours of Friday, December 20th, at Space Launch Complex – 41 at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station United Launch Alliance successfully launched a uniquely configured, rated for human spaceflight Atlas V rocket topped with the Boeing Starliner crew capsule to complete its inaugural Orbital Flight Test to the International Space Station (ISS).

However, following the stunning sunrise launch and successful spacecraft separation, Starliner experienced an anomaly with an automated mission event timer which hindered a crucial orbital insertion burn from being completed.

The missed burn and the resulting domino effect of consequences cut Starliner’s journey short. In a joint media teleconference held Saturday, December 21st including NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine, Boeing senior vice president of Space and Launch Jim Chilton, and deputy manager of NASA Commercial Crew Steve Stich, it was confirmed that just 48 hours following launch Starliner is expected conclude the test flight and return for a controlled landing at White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico.

Initially, Starliner was expected to spend approximately 8 days docked on orbit with the ISS for a return journey tentatively scheduled to occur on December 28th. The lack of orbital insertion and consequential overuse of fuel consumed by smaller incremental burns performed throughout the day on Friday to place Starliner in a safe orbit all but guaranteed that the spacecraft would miss its opportunity to rendezvous and autonomously dock with the ISS, a pivotal objective of the orbital test flight. A fact that was later confirmed on Twitter by Bridenstine.

During the teleconference, Starliner was described as a healthy spacecraft that had in fact achieved circular safe orbit approximately 250km above sea level, lower than would have been achieved had the initial burn occurred as planned. As docking with the ISS was completely out of reach and Starliner remained under tight constraints of how long it could maintain free orbital flight, Boeing and NASA teams jointly decided to bring Starliner home as soon as possible.

While Starliner remained on orbit Friday and Saturday, flight controllers completed many OFT mission objectives. A number of the achievements were outlined in a statement posted to Boeing’s Starliner updates webpage.

“Entry, descent, and landing is not for the faint of heart.” – Jim Chilton

While many OFT mission objectives were successfully met during the dramatically cut short mission the entire goal of Starliner still remains. After all, Starliner is designed to ferry human astronauts safely to and from the ISS. A huge part of that is re-entering the Earth’s atmosphere and landing under survivable conditions.

Enough of Starliner’s fuel was preserved to afford multiple opportunities to safely land. Two opportunities to land at the planned site of White Sands Space Harbor on the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. This location may sound familiar as it is the same location where a different Starliner test capsule recently completed a pad abort test.

NASA and Boeing teams are targeting a landing attempt on Sunday 7:57 am EST (1257 GMT). Should it be needed a backup landing attempt at 3:48 pm EST (848 GMT) in the same location is also available. An anthropomorphic test dummy dressed in Boeing’s recognizable blue spacesuit inside the capsule nicknamed “Rosie the Rocketeer” is wired up with sensors to collect data reflecting the conditions a human astronaut would experience during descent.

NASA will livestream the landing attempt and recovery efforts on NASATV beginning at 5:45 am EST (1045 GMT).

Check out Teslarati’s newsletters for prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket launch and recovery processes.

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The Netherlands Supreme Court has ruled in favor of a radical initiative to reduce emissions by 25% by the end of 2020 in a groundbreaking lawsuit. It is the first time a federal government has found legal implications as a way to prevent climate change on behalf of a lawsuit filed by citizens.

The case dates back to 2013 when a Netherlands-based activist organization called Urgenda filed a lawsuit against the Dutch state. The organization’s director Marjan Minnesma said during an interview with The Correspondent’s Jelmer Mommers that the case was based on environmental awareness. “We are simply asking whether the state has the freedom to ignore what everyone knows is necessary,” Minnesma said.

A federal judge announced the verdict for the case in 2015 and stated that the climate policy in the Netherlands was not decisive or adequate enough to cause any sort of change. The judge then required emissions in the state to reduce by 25% by 2020. The basis behind the verdict was that it was the government’s job to protect is citizens from climate change and its dangerous and harmful consequences. The judge’s decision was appealed by the State, but their case was thrown out.

Today, the Netherlands Supreme Court voted on the case and Urgenda won again. This will require companies, banks, and investors alike to abide by new climate regulations, requiring them to reduce emissions by a quarter by the end of next year.

The Netherlands is one of thirteen countries in the world, and one of eight in Europe, to implement a phase-out plan of petrol-based vehicles. The ban was announced in 2017 and will affect gasoline or diesel vehicle sales. It requires all cars to be “emissions-free” by the end of 2030.

While Tesla has become a mainstay all over the world, its presence is certainly felt in the Netherlands. In fact, the Model 3 has become the most popular vehicle in the country after it surpassed the Volkswagen Polo earlier this year. The country is one of the Model 3’s most high volume markets. In the third quarter alone, the Netherlands registered over 6,000 Model 3 vehicles. With the climate plan in place, a greater degree of adoption for Model 3 in the Netherlands may happen next year as well.

A win for environmentalists everywhere, a federal government has stated that they will finally begin holding large companies accountable for the damage they do to the environment. In today’s climate, the Earth is at a dire need for change. Luckily, there are countries that are attempting to do their part to contribute to the reduction of global greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. The Netherlands is one of them. In September, the country announced they will halt gas production at a notorious onshore gas field by 2022 in favor of a clean energy alternative.

It is important to note that the world’s emissions issues and climate change problems will not go away overnight. Perhaps a government’s attempt to combat the release of dangerous gases into the atmosphere will spread to other countries. While that remains to be seen, the Netherlands deserves some recognition as they took a citizen’s request for the reduction of pollution as a sign that they needed to take the issue more seriously. The recognition of the case is a sign that the climate issues are being taken seriously. While some state governments in the United States have countered companies who are not contributing to emissions reduction, it remains to be seen whether the federal government will make moves toward a clean energy future.

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Rivian has submitted a patent aimed at protecting drivers and passengers from hazardous materials using its in-vehicle systems and autonomous driving technology. The patent invokes similarities to Tesla’s Bioweapon Defense Mode In terms of protecting vehicle occupants from harmful environments but on a more advanced level.

Rivian filed the patent on June 11 and named it “Systems and Methods for Operating an Autonomous Vehicle in a Presence of Hazardous Materials.” The new patent would allow its trucks to recognize when a hazardous material is present around and inside the vehicle. The vehicle’s system would then take the necessary steps to avoid exposing its passengers from said materials.

The patent states:

Current autonomous vehicle technology allows an autonomous vehicle to transport passengers between destinations without being directly controlled by a human driver. However, due to an absence of a driver, an autonomous vehicle may encounter unexpected or unusual circumstances that the autonomous vehicle may not be able to autonomously handle or mitigate. For example, the interior of the autonomous vehicle may become unpleasant or even unsafe due to presence of hazardous or biohazardous material. Current autonomous vehicles are unable to properly respond to such an occurrence, leading to an unpleasant or dangerous experience for an occupant.

According to the description of the patent, the vehicle would determine if there are hazardous materials inside the cabin using a gas sensor. Initially, simple steps like automatically opening windows or increasing air ventilation would be performed. If neither of these steps addresses the issue, the vehicle would then determine a modified route to a safer destination. This means the car would add emergency stops or replace the active destination and route with alternatives that would include first-responder or cleanup facilities.

Like many of Rivian’s other submitted patents, they include a diagram that demonstrates the vehicle’s decision-making process. This outlines the multiple scenarios that could take place if the car notices a hazardous material is present.

Rivian’s patent seems to echo some features of Tesla’s Bioweapon Defense Mode, which debuted on the Model X. Bioweapon Defense Mode does not operate autonomously like Rivian’s concept, but it also provides passengers with an air purification system that is practically hospital-grade. This came in handy for California Tesla owners in October when wildfires affected many within the state. Tesla’s system utilizes a large HEPA air filter that is responsible for removing at least 99.97% of fine particulate matter and gaseous pollutants that keeps drivers safe from contamination occurring outside of the vehicle.

A system that could detect some hazardous materials within the cabin of a vehicle could prove to be beneficial for any vehicle owner. The importance of this patent goes far beyond convenience, becoming a safety feature that could prevent accidents and exposure to harmful materials in the air.

Rivian’s full discussion of its patent could be accessed here.

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Tesla is approaching the 2019 holidays with a victory in Germany, with the electric car maker and the state of Brandenburg reaching an agreement for the purchase of land in the municipality of Grünheide, where Gigafactory 4 will be built. An approval application for the upcoming facility has also been submitted by Tesla on Friday. 

With the purchase agreement in place, both Tesla and the state would now have the opportunity to review the specifics of the contract. It should be noted that the contract in itself is still subject for approval by Tesla’s Board of Directors and Brandenburg’s Finance Committee. As noted by news outlet rbb24, the specifics of purchase agreement remain confidential for now. 

Economics Minister Jörg Steinbach expressed his optimism about the agreement in a statement to Bild, calling the agreement a “milestone” for the upcoming factory. “We reached two more milestones before Christmas. That makes me optimistic about the further progress of this spectacular settlement in the coming year,” he said. 

Environment Minister Axel Vogel, who will reportedly be reviewing at several folders’ worth of applications and documents for Tesla’s Gigafactory 4, assured the media that everything will be done to expedite the progress of Tesla’s GF4. “We will do everything we can to move the process forward quickly, taking legal requirements into account. If there are good chances for the approval, Tesla can start with the construction before the procedure is completed,” Vogel remarked. 

Brandenburg’s Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke highlighted that while the first important steps in Gigafactory 4’s construction may have been taken, there is still a substantial amount of work that needs to be done for the facility. “It is very good that the first two important steps have been taken. I am pleased that the agreements made in the Task Force on Tuesday were met by everyone involved. That makes me confident for the future. But there is still a lot to do,” the Prime Minister said. 

Tesla’s Gigafactory 4 is expected to start its electric car production activities in 2021. Unlike the company’s Fremont factory, which started with the Model S, and Gigafactory 3, which started with the Model 3, Gigafactory 4 will start its operations with the production of the Model Y crossover. Tesla CEO Elon Musk has stated that the Model Y will likely outsell the Model S, Model X, and Model 3 combined, hinting that the all-electric crossover will be the company’s highest-volume vehicle yet. Filings related to the facility’s water supply seem to highlight this point, with references hinting at Gigafactory 4 eventually reaching an output of up to 750,000 vehicles per year.

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Roughly 30 minutes after lifting off for the first time on a United Launch Alliance (ULA) Atlas V rocket, Boeing’s Starliner crew capsule suffered a major failure when it attempted to raise its orbit with onboard engines.

A few hours after the failure came to light, NASA and Boeing held a press conference to update members of the media on the situation, with the space agency offering some candid – if a bit odd – insight into Starliner’s anomalous launch debut. Before the spacecraft’s software threw a wrench into the gears, the plan was for Starliner to separate from ULA’s Atlas V Centaur upper stage and use its own thrusters to reach orbit and begin the trek up Earth’s gravity well to the International Space Station (ISS).

While it will likely take weeks or even months for Boeing and NASA to determine exactly what went wrong during the mission, preliminary information has already begun to paint a fairly detailed picture.

Around 15 minutes after liftoff, Starliner separated from the rocket as intended but it appears that things began to go awry almost immediately afterward. Most notably, according to NASA administrator Jim Bridenstine’s tweets and later comments, a very early look at the telemetry suggests that Starliner’s internal clock was somehow tricked into believing that the time was either earlier or later than it actually was.

Thinking that it was in the midst of a lengthy thruster firing meant to raise its orbit and send the spacecraft on its way to the space station, Starliner was thus focused on ensuring that it was pointed as accurately as possible. Although the space station is the size of a football field, in the vastness of space, rendezvousing with it is a bit like threading a needle. While firing thrusters to do so, spacecraft thus need to point themselves as accurately as possible.

While coasting before or after one of those orbit-boosting thruster firings, Starliner thought it was actually burning towards the space station and was thus very carefully controlling its orientation with a dozen or so smaller thrusters. In short, those unintentional thruster firings burned through a ton of Starliner’s limited propellant supply – enough to make it impossible (or nearly so) for the spacecraft to rendezvous and dock the ISS, a central purpose of this particular launch.

This ultimately means that Starliner is leaning heavily on the “test” aspect of this Orbital Flight Test (OFT), uncovering failure modes and bugs that Boeing was clearly unable to tease out with ground testing and simulation. While in a totally different ballpark, SpaceX similar Crew Dragon spacecraft suffered its own major failure earlier this year, although that capsule explosion occurred during intentional ground testing, whereas Starliner’s software failed during its high-profile launch debut and has severely curtailed the scope of the spacecraft’s first orbital flight test.

In fact, Bridenstine was unable to rule out the possibility that Boeing will have to attempt a second uncrewed orbital flight test (OFT) before Starliner will be qualified to launch the space agency’s astronauts. Although early signs suggest that Boeing will still be able to attempt to deorbit and recover the spacecraft a day or two from now, the fact that Starliner will not be able to perform critical demonstrations of its ISS rendezvous and docking capabilities will make it far harder for NASA to rationally certify the spacecraft for astronaut launches.

SpaceX’s Crew Dragon, for reference, completed a more or less flawless launch, orbit raise, and rendezvous before docking with the ISS. It’s almost impossible to imagine NASA giving SpaceX permission to proceed immediately into its first astronaut launch if Crew Dragon had failed to reach the proper orbit or dock with the space station.

Regardless, it’s far too early to tell whether Boeing will have to repeat Starliner’s OFT. If Starliner performs absolutely perfectly between now and its planned soft-landing in New Mexico, there might be a chance that NASA will still allow Boeing to effectively cut corners to its astronaut launch debut, but only time will tell.

Check out Teslarati’s newsletters for prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket launch and recovery processes.

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Gary Black, a private investor who was once considered as one of Wall Street’s most prominent analysts in the tobacco industry, believes he has found the reason why Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) continues to climb. According to the finance veteran, a lot of it has to do with the company’s battery technology that just so happens to be head and shoulders above the competition.

On Thursday, Tesla’s stock ended the day at $404.04 a share, giving the company a $73 billion market value. Both of these are records for the electric car maker, and there may be more upside if the company meets its delivery and production targets this fourth quarter. That being said, Black noted in a statement to Barron’s that a lot of Tesla’s momentum is due to the company’s batteries, which give its vehicles like the Model S their industry-leading range.

“When you talk to dealers and non-EV users, the biggest obstacle to buying an EV is battery charge. People want the most range,” Black said.

Recent electric car releases from veteran automakers have only emphasized Tesla’s lead in efficiency and range. A Model 3 Standard Range Plus, for example, starts at $39,990 and offers 250 miles of emission-free driving. On the other hand, a Porsche Taycan Turbo, which costs about $150,000, will only offer 201 miles of range as per estimates from the EPA. That’s 20% less range for the Taycan at over three times the cost of the Model 3 Standard Range Plus.

While a longtime short thesis against Tesla argues that the young company will be buried by electric cars from more experienced rivals, Black remains confident that Tesla will continue to thrive. The veteran noted that Mercedes has delayed the release of its electric car, the EQC, in the United States. Meanwhile, Jaguar and Audi’s battery-powered vehicles have lagged in sales. Part of this is likely due to the vehicles’ range, as well as their lack of a dedicated charging infrastructure like Tesla’s Supercharger Network.

Considering its lead in battery tech, Black believes that Tesla’s sales could hit 1.8 million units annually by 2024. This would equate to around 10% of the United States car market and $8 billion in earnings before interest, taxes or depreciation. This also means that TSLA stock could double to about $800 per share in 2024. “I’m a value investor but I like to buy growth companies at a discount to intrinsic value,” Black said.

This becomes particularly feasible when Tesla’s constant improvements to its battery tech are taken into account. President of Automotive Jerome Guillen previously stated that Tesla’s batteries are never static, as they are always in a constant state of improvement. The company has been pretty secretive about the details of its latest battery tech innovations, but the unveiling of vehicles like the Cybertruck, whose top-tier variant goes over 500 miles of range for a price that’s less than $70,000, suggests that these improvements are significant.

Tesla currently holds 78% of the electric vehicle market in the United States. Black believes that with competition steadily increasing, the company must be prepared to see its overall presence in the market drop to around 40%. He thinks that drivers who currently utilize electric cars will eventually grow from 3% to 25% of the market, equivalent to 1.8 million battery-powered vehicles on the road. Nevertheless, if competition continues to be as anemic as it has been so far, Tesla may end up holding on to its dominant market share in the US’ EV industry longer than expected.

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

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