LNG: TESLARATI

SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell says that the Starlink satellite internet business is in no rush to become a separate company and pursue an IPO, and that relaxed demeanor should terrify competitor constellations and ISPs like OneWeb and Comcast.

Announced in January 2015, SpaceX has been developing a massive constellation of satellites capable of delivering high-quality broadband internet anywhere on Earth for half a decade. Known as Starlink, SpaceX launched its first dedicated satellite prototypes – known as Tintin A and B – in February 2018, serving as a very successful alpha test for the myriad technologies the company would need to master to realize the constellation’s goals. 15 months later, SpaceX launched its first batch of 60 radically-redesigned Starlink satellites – packed flat to fit in an unmodified Falcon 9 payload fairing.

Less than nine months after that first ‘v0.9’ mission, SpaceX has completed another three dedicated launches and made Starlink – now some 235 operational satellites strong – the world’s largest private satellite constellation by a huge margin. Now just two days away from its fifth Starlink launch, SpaceX’s second-in-command has revealed that the company will likely split Starlink off into its own separate company, enabling an IPO without sacrificing SpaceX’s broader freedom. However, Shotwell also made it clear that SpaceX is in no rush to do so, and that fact should strike fear into the hearts of Starlink’s many potential competitors.

Bloomberg first broke the news with a snippet revealing that SpaceX COO and President Gwynne Shotwell had told a private investor event that Starlink could eventually IPO as an independent company. While undeniably important, a SpaceX source – after confirming the news – also told Reuters reporter Joey Roulette that it would be “several years” before the company might kick off the process of a Starlink IPO.

While a seemingly small piece of information at face value, the fact that SpaceX is years away from a potential Starlink IPO implies that the company is incredibly confident in where it stands today. Given that SpaceX only started ramping up its Starlink production rates and launch cadence a handful of months ago, that apparent confidence – assuming SpaceX’s respected President and COO isn’t lying to the faces of prospective investors – is no small feat.

Thanks to that production and launch cadence ramp, SpaceX is likely in the midst of one of the most capital-straining periods its Starlink program will ever experience. As a private company, SpaceX’s balance sheets are a black box to the public, but it’s safe to say that the it’s going through – or has already gone through – a phase of “production hell” similar to what Tesla experienced when it began building Roadsters, Model S/Xs, and Model 3s.

Building satellites like cars

In less than 12 months, SpaceX has effectively gone from manufacturing zero satellites to mass-producing something like 2-4 Starlink spacecraft every single day, almost without a doubt smashing any records previously held in the industry. It’s possible that companies like Planet (now the owner of the second-largest private constellation) or Spire have built more spacecraft in a given period, but SpaceX’s satellites are at least an order of magnitude larger, on average.

Around 260 kg (570 lb) apiece, SpaceX has built and launched a total of 240 spacecraft – together weighing more than 60 metric tons (135,000 lb) – in less than nine months. Furthermore, the company not only intends to crush that average but wants (if not needs) to do so for several years without interruption.

Back in May 2019, CEO Elon Musk confidently stated that he believes SpaceX already has all the capital it needs “to build an operational [Starlink] constellation”, likely referring to at least ~1500 operational communications satellites – launches included. This is why competitors should be moderately terrified that SpaceX isn’t even privately pushing for an IPO sooner than later. Perhaps the single biggest reason modern companies pursue IPOs is to raise substantial capital – usually far more than can be practically (or quickly) raised while private when executed successfully.

A step further, “several years” should mean titanic changes for SpaceX’s Starlink constellation if everything goes as planned. In 2020, SpaceX has publicly stated that it will attempt as many as 20-24 dedicated Starlink launches, an achievement that would translate to a constellation more than 1600 satellites strong by the end of the year. SpaceX says that 24 launches (20 if the first four missions are subtracted) is enough to offer global coverage and plans to begin serving customers in the northern US and Canada as early as this summer.

As of now, SpaceX has performed three 60-satellite Starlink launches total in the last three months – two in January 2020 alone – and Starlink V1 L4 (the fourth v1.0 launch and fifth launch overall) is scheduled to lift off just two days from now on February 15th. If Musk and Shotwell are correct and SpaceX can launch at least one or two thousand satellites without raising any additional capital, the constellation – potentially reaching those numbers by early to mid-2021 – may already have hundreds of thousands of customers by the time more funding is needed. 2000 Starlink v1.0 satellites, for reference, would theoretically offer enough collective bandwidth for more than 500,000 users to simultaneously stream Netflix content in 1080p.

As of early 2019, SpaceX had raised a total of $2B in venture capital, investments, and debt. Thus, even in the unlikely event that 100% of that funding goes to Starlink, the company would ultimately have to spend $500-700M annually from 2018 to the end of 2021 to run that large pool of capital dry by the time 1000-2000 satellites are in orbit.

500,000 customers paying $50-100 per month by the end of 2021 would conservatively allow Starlink to generate $300-600M in annual revenue, excluding the likely possibility of even more lucrative government or commercial contracts. In other words, if SpaceX can accumulate an average of 20,000 paying subscribers per month between now and the end of 2021, Starlink could very well become self-sustaining at its current rate of growth – or close to it – by the time SpaceX is hurting for more funding. In a worst-case scenario, it thus appears all but certain that “several years” from now, SpaceX’s Starlink program will have at least a few thousand high-performance satellites in orbit, an extensive network of ground stations, and a large swath of alpha or beta customers by the time IPO proceedings begin.

Given that all that potential infrastructure would easily be worth at least $1-2B purely from a capital investment standpoint, Starlink’s ultimate IPO valuation – under Shotwell’s patient “maybe one day” approach – could be stratospheric.

Check out Teslarati’s newsletters for prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket launch and recovery processes.

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Tesla takes a step closer to begin construction of Giga Berlin in Grunheide as Brandenburg authorities announce initial plans to spend 100 million euros on infrastructure development around the facility. Additionally, the Agriculture and Environment Minister Axel Vogel confirmed during a parliamentary committee on Wednesday that there’s a secure water supply for the entire region, thereby eliminating one of the biggest risks that would have delayed construction of Tesla’s first European factory.

Local residents, business owners, and environmental groups initially sounded the alarm about water, in fear that the California-based electric carmaker’s plans for a large production facility will dry up their local water supply. Tesla plans to initially produce 150,000 electric vehicles annually at Giga Berlin and will eventually ramp up to 500,000 units per year.

Responsible water association Strausberg / Erkner (WSE) addressed the community in a meeting last week, noting that they can meet the water supply needs of the Gigafactory in Grunheide but need additional funding. According to Vogel, WSE supplied about  10.8 million cubic meters of water in 2018 and the government can stretch that to the approved framework of 16 million cubic meters. Tesla’s Giga Berlin will only need about 1.77 million cubic meters of water per year.

“The evaluations will be completed this week and then the approval notice will be issued,  there is no reason to be worried that Tesla cannot be supplied with sufficient drinking water,” Vogel said.

In January, Tesla CEO and co-founder Elon Musk also chimed in on the water supply issue and clarified that Giga Berlin is designed with sustainability and the environment in mind.

Giga Berlin / GF4 will absolutely be designed with sustainability and the environment in mind

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 25, 2020

With Water Issues Solved, Government Thinks of Infrastructure

As Tesla Giga Berlin gains momentum with the assurance of the Brandenburg government that there’s enough water supply for the factory and for the rest of the community, authorities have announced plans to spend 10 million euros this year on roads and railway connections. Another 90 million euros will be allocated next year for various infrastructure projects around the car factory and a total of one billion euros would be spent by 2030.

Minister of Transport Guido Beermann disclosed plans for the electrification of the railway siding and an extension or relocation of the Fangschleuse train station.

There are also talks about the expansion of state roads, bus line networks that will serve commuters to Grunheide, and the extension of the S-Bahn, the city’s rapid railway system, to Grunheide.

Tesla enthusiast Emil Senkel has provided a clear illustration of these plans:

being examined:
– electrification of the railway siding
– possible extension of the S-Bahn to Grünheide
– bus lines networks

planned:
– new link parallel to the railway line between the motorway and L23
– extension or relocation of the existing train station
– 4-lane extension pic.twitter.com/R5ElDHJUzY

— Emil Senkel (@EmilSenkel) February 13, 2020

With the influx of people expected when Giga Berlin goes online, the government is also planning to spend 30 million euros for new dormitories in nearby areas, 50  million euros for the renovation of dormitories, and 52 million euros for the rehabilitation of municipal bridges and bike lanes.

Environmental Protection Measures

As Tesla completes the necessary requirements to move forward with the construction of its facility in Brandenburg, the carmaker announced the steps it’s taking to ensure all measures are taken to protect the environment. Tesla will put up around 400 nesting boxes for birds breeding in the area and relocate several nests of forest ants. As planned, the carmaker will also search the forest for hibernating bats, forest lizards, and other creatures that need to be moved.

Tesla plans to start production of vehicles at Giga Berlin by July 2021. The factory is expected to employ around 8,000 to 12,000 workers to help with the production of the Model 3 sedan, the Model Y crossover.

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A Tesla fan and electric vehicle enthusiast reached out to Elon Musk to raise the issue of the Model 3’s price in Australia, which is significantly higher compared to territories like the United States.

David McCann, who goes by the Twitter handle @EVHQ2, asked the Tesla CEO if there’s a way to cut the cost of the Model 3 in Australia. McCann posted a screenshot showing a Tesla Model 3 Dual Motor AWD with a price of AUD 110,747 ($74,636) and a price of AUD 105,147 (USD 70,864) after estimated savings.

The inquiry caught the attention of Musk, who replied in agreement, “This does seem high.”

In the United States, a Tesla Model 3 RWD Standard Range Plus starts at $39,900 before incentives. The AWD Long Range version goes for $48,990 and the Performance Model 3 goes for $56,990.

This does seem high

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 12, 2020

The higher price of Model 3 in Australia is primarily due to the falling value of the Australian currency against the US dollar. Other factors also come into play, such as the country’s Goods and Services tax, luxury car tax, and stamp duty. The cost of shipping the vehicles from the United States is also priced in.

Tesla aims to provide consumers with electric cars that are as affordable as the company can muster while sticking to the mission of accelerating the world’s transition to sustainable energy. This is the primary reason why Tesla offers a $35,000 Model 3, despite the version being off-menu.

David McCann’s issue with the Model 3 price in Australia may represent the dilemma of other Australian consumers who want to shift to greener vehicles but hesitate because of the hefty price tag of EVs. This is quite ironic, since the country hosts one of the most notable Tesla Energy projects to date, such as the Hornsdale Power Reserve.

While Elon Musk did not detail how Tesla would eventually address Australia’s high prices, the electric carmaker does have a way to drastically reduce its operating costs. A Tesla Gigafactory in Australia or in a nearby country, for example, can lower the company’s expenses in shipping the Model 3 to the country.

“The biggest problem we have to solve right now is having production on each continent, because it’s insane to be making cars in California [and] shipping them to Europe and Asia,” Musk remarked in an interview on the Third Row podcast.

With Gigafactories all over, Tesla can meet the demand for its vehicles in different markets more efficiently without having to worry about high tariffs, carrying costs, or damage costs. This is what Tesla did in China where the price of Model 3 went down from $63,000 when imported to around $46,000 when locally produced. The same is true for Giga Berlin where Tesla can get a grant of up to as much as 100 million euros for its first factory in Europe. It may also get subsidies for a battery cell production in the country.

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Set to become the first commercial spacecraft ever to launch NASA astronauts, SpaceX has revealed that its newest Crew Dragon spaceship is in the midst of its final major factory tests, meaning that it could be just a matter of days before it ships to Florida.

Originally built to support SpaceX’s first operational NASA astronaut launch (PCM-1), an explosion that destroyed capsule C201 forced the company to shuffle its fleet and reassign that spacecraft (capsule C206) to an inaugural crewed test flight known as Demo-2. Thankfully, although C201 did explode during post-recovery static fire testing, the spacecraft had flawlessly completed an uncrewed test flight (Demo-1) the month prior, demonstrating a nominal Falcon 9 launch, space station rendezvous, docking, orbital reentry, and splashdown without a single visible hiccup. In short, Crew Dragon’s Demo-1 launch debut could not have gone better.

Around nine months later, having overcome the biggest hurdles posed by capsule C201’s explosion and unrelated parachute failures, SpaceX successfully launched its second finished Crew Dragon capsule – C205 – on a Falcon 9 rocket. That January 19th In-Flight Abort (IFA) test proved that SpaceX’s first human-rated spacecraft can safely whisk astronauts away from Falcon 9 even if it were to fail at the most stressful point of launch. Now, less than a month later, SpaceX’s third finished Crew Dragon spacecraft is nearly ready to head to Florida to begin preparing for the company’s historic astronaut launch debut.

On February 11th, SpaceX released a video showing a 360-degree view of the Demo-2 Crew Dragon spacecraft (C206) inside its Hawthorne, CA factory’s built-in anechoic chamber – used to perform routine electromagnetic interference (EMI) tests. Meant to verify that Crew Dragon is protected from interference that can be caused by internal and external sources of electromagnetic radiation, EMI testing implies that all of the spacecraft’s systems are installed and operational.

Positive EMI test results should mean that Crew Dragon C206 is (more or less) ready to be transported to SpaceX’s Florida processing facilities.

Comprised of a recoverable, reusable crew capsule and an expendable trunk section, the latter part of the Demo-2 Crew Dragon spacecraft is somewhat conspicuously absent in C206’s EMI test video. This seems to imply that its trunk was either tested independently and shipped to Florida beforehand or still needs to be completed, given that EMI testing is generally more effective when performed with a truly complete vehicle.

Crew Dragon’s Demo-2 trunk did appear to be well on its way to completion more than four months ago, so the former explanation is arguably more plausible.

Ultimately, Crew Dragon C206, its Demo-2 trunk section, and Falcon 9’s booster and upper stage are all expected to be at SpaceX’s Florida processing and launch facilities by the end of the month. According to Ars Technica reporter Eric Berger, NASA and SpaceX are working towards a Crew Dragon astronaut launch debut sometime in late-April to late-May and are maintaining a tentative placeholder date on May 7th, 2020.

Looking at past trends, the Crew Dragon spacecraft assigned to SpaceX’s In-Flight Abort test arrived in Florida around the start of October 2019 and was vertical on Falcon 9 and ready for launch by mid-January 2020 — a delta of about 15 weeks. In the interim, SpaceX had to prepare Crew Dragon capsule C205 for an unusual abort thruster static fire test to verify that the fault that destroyed capsule C201 was solved. That test was completed by mid-November. In other words, all things considered equal, SpaceX could technically be ready to launch its first astronauts as few as 6-9 weeks from now – early to late April – if Crew Dragon C206 ships to Cape Canaveral within a week or two.

At the same time, compared to Crew Dragon’s Demo-1 and IFA test flights, Demo-2 will have many more moving parts and much higher consequences at stake. Still, barring any unforeseen problems, it’s starting to look all but certain that Crew Dragon will perform its inaugural astronaut launch before the first half of 2020 is out.

Check out Teslarati’s newsletters for prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket launch and recovery processes.

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Hyundai’s new, star-studded “Smart Park” advertisement introduced a feature that has been familiar to Tesla owners for years. The commercial shows John Krasinski utilizing Smart Park to pull his Sonata into a tight parking space without having to be behind the wheel.

As per Hyundai, Smart Park is used by holding one of two buttons on a vehicle’s key fob that moves the vehicle either forward or backward, a feature that’s very reminiscent of Tesla’s earliest iteration of Summon from 2016. According to a test from Car and Driver, Hyundai Smart Park can detect some objects and manage to steer away from some obstacles in front of the car, but the feature is limited to forward and backward motion only.

View this post on Instagram

Controlling car using watch! So cool right! Video by @nrgluxcars

A post shared by Tesla Motors Club (@teslaforlife) on Feb 11, 2020 at 6:38am PST

Tesla’s Summon was rolled out nearly four years ago and has since improved significantly. The company rolled out its newest “Smart Summon” iteration in their latest Version 10 over-the-air software update that gives owners the ability to remote control their vehicles through a roundabout, a fast food drive-thru, and even snow-covered parking lots via Tesla’s mobile app. Some owners have gone as far as conducting independent tests to showcase the software’s ability to recognize and avoid obstacles in the vehicle’s way.

Considering that automakers such as Hyundai are only now releasing features similar to Tesla’s basic Summon capabilities, it may take a few years before vehicles from established players in the car industry can roll out capabilities that are on par with Tesla’s flagship features.

If veteran automakers like Hyundai look to play in the fast-paced and ever-changing world of high-tech cars, rest assured that “Smaht-er Pahk” features will most certainly be coming to

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A Tesla Model 3 Performance with street-legal tires and a series of Unplugged Performance bolt-on modifications registered a nearly identical lap time as the McLaren F1 supercar at the famed Tsukuba Circuit in Japan.

The upgraded but street-driven Unplugged Performance Model 3 owned by Erik Strait of the YouTube channel DӔrik did the Tsukuba Circuit time attack on Jan. 22 and registered a lap time of 1:04.7, only one-tenth of a second away from besting the fastest lap time of 1:04.6 by the iconic McLaren F1.

The lap time set by Unplugged Performance’s Model 3 Ascension-R also bested the times set by other notable high-performance cars at the famed time attack circuit in Japan.

• McLaren F1: 1:04.6
• Tesla Model 3 Ascension-R by Unplugged Performance: 1:04.7
• Porsche 911 GT3 997: 1:04.8
• Ferrari F40: 1:04.8
• Audi R8 V10 5.2 FSI: 1:04.9
• Lamborghini Gallardo:  1:05.0
• Porsche 911 Turbo 997: 1:05.2

The fastest recorded lap time at Tsukuba is a 1:00.3 by a Nissan Nismo GT-R.

The US-spec Tesla Model 3 Performance began its overseas journey from Los Angeles to Tokyo where it made its grand International debut at the Tokyo Auto Salon show in early January. After wooing the crowds at the world-famous motoring show in Japan, the car was then displayed at a Tesla Service Center in Shinome in Tokyo, before ultimately making its way to the Tsukuba race circuit.

Tesla Model 3 Ascension-R at Tsukuba Circuit, Japan (Source: Unplugged Performance)

Tesla Model 3 Ascension-R at Tsukuba Circuit, Japan (Source: Unplugged Performance)

Tesla Model 3 Ascension-R rear spoiler, Japan (Source: Unplugged Performance)

Tesla Model 3 Ascension-R 2 at Tsukuba Circuit, Japan (Source: Unplugged Performance)

Tesla Model 3 Ascension-R 2 at Tsukuba Circuit, Japan (Source: Unplugged Performance)

Tesla Model 3 Ascension-R at Tokyo Auto Salon, Japan (Source: Unplugged Performance)

Unplugged Performance upgraded Tesla Model 3 fastest lap time at Tsukuba Circuit in Japan (Source: Unplugged Performance)

The tuned Tesla Model 3 Ascension-R hit the track at less than ideal conditions on a 38 degree Fahrenheit winter day on January 22. Driven by Unplugged Performance’s trusted Japanese driver Ken Negoro, who is not a full-time racecar driver and has never driven a Tesla before, Negoro familiarized himself with the car by doing 20 laps on the 1.29-mile circuit. During his test runs, Negoro managed to put down a very respectable 1:04 lap time while contending with a field of other cars and learning the characteristics of the California-made all-electric luxury sedan.

Negoro stated that the Unplugged Performance Tesla Model 3 would be capable of running in the mid to low 1:03s without any changes to the car if more laps were possible under better conditions. Negoro also stated that if DOT legal semi-slick tires were used, the car would likely be capable of 1:01 to 1:02 lap time, and come close to the fastest ever factory spec car’s lap time of 1:00.3 set by a Nissan Nismo GT-R.

Considering the driving conditions, the Tesla Model 3’s fastest lap time at the famed Japanese Circuit is a great achievement for Tesla, Elon Musk, Unplugged Performance, and the electric vehicle community in general. With the performance at Tsukuba, Model 3 adds another feather in its cap proving that it can perform side by side, or even better, than world-class supercars.

Check out the video below of the Tesla Model 3 attacking the Tsukuba race circuit in Japan:

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January was a big month for Tesla’s Giga Shanghai, with Made-in-China Model 3 production hitting its stride following trial manufacturing runs at the end of 2019. Reports indicate that Giga Shanghai was able to build over 2,600 units of the Made-in-China Model 3 in January, despite the company stopping operations for the Chinese New Year, and later, the coronavirus outbreak. This resulted in Tesla manufacturing the 5th-largest number of battery electric vehicles in China in January 2020.

With a rate of 2,625 Made-in-China (MIC) Model 3s produced before the Lunar New Year holiday on January 25th, it appears that Tesla was indeed producing about 1,000 units of the all-electric sedan per week when the year started. This is quite impressive, as Giga Shanghai’s new production lines that are not fully optimized yet. With its lines not running at max capacity, one can only imagine how many more vehicles the facility could produce.

TESLA GF3 MODEL 3 PRODUCTION – 2020 JANUARY

GF3 produced 2,625 MIC Model 3s in January before the shutdown for Lunar New Year

This confirms the approximate rate of 1,000 per week on a single shift pic.twitter.com/io7Gra42KJ

— JPR007 (@jpr007) February 12, 2020

Tesla has stated that the run-rate of Model 3 production at Giga Shanghai has reached about 3,000 vehicles a week. Before the end of 2019, the electric car maker stated that it had been producing 280 vehicles per 10-hour shift, but it planned to raise this number significantly to reach its 3,000-per-week-target. This would require just below 430 vehicles per shift.

On February 5, Tesla decided to temporarily shut down operations in Shanghai following the outbreak of the coronavirus. The announcement came from Tesla China’s Vice President for External Affairs Tao Lin, who suggested the safest option was to temporarily halt deliveries to preserve the safety and health of the company’s employees and customers. Tesla also offered a lending hand to Chinese citizens by giving free Supercharging to owners living in affected areas.

The company resumed production and deliveries on February 10. While recognizing that the short-term delay in production would set back rates, it was the smartest option. But while the production facility is still not running at full-capacity as China is still dealing with the virus, Giga Shanghai is operational once more.

Tesla’s battery supplier LG Chem, along with Daimler and Ford, announced they would be resuming operations of February 10 as well. BMW will wait another week and will resume production on February 17.

Affected by a large-scale virus and expected off-days due to holiday celebrations, Gigafactory Shanghai was still able to show notable production numbers in January. Surely, Tesla has plans to ramp up this production to 150,000 vehicles a year and beyond, an attainable goal in the foreseeable future as all employees return and all production lines become fully optimized.

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