LNG: TESLARATI

There is a storm brewing in Volkswagen’s Wolfsburg plant, and it can very well make or break the career of CEO Herbert Diess, a strong proponent for the company’s transition to electric mobility. As problems continue to pile up for Volkswagen’s electric car program, the ID.3, a vehicle considered to be a rival to the Tesla Model 3, is starting to turn into a cautionary tale. 

An extensive report from German news outlet Manager Magazin provided an in-depth look at the current state of Volkswagen’s electric vehicle initiative. According to the esteemed magazine, experts and top managers from the automaker are now meeting every working day in a massive push to get the ID.3 ready for consumer deliveries. But despite their disciplined efforts, the affordable EV is proving stubborn, causing notable delays in its release. 

The Volkswagen ID.3 is an essential car for the German automaker, being a personal project for Diess, who has emerged as one of the most prominent voices in the auto industry pushing for electrification. More than a vehicle that can potentially beat the Tesla Model 3 in terms of pricing, the ID.3 is also the automaker’s key in avoiding €10 billion worth of emissions fines this year. Without the ID.3, the penalties cannot be avoided. Even with the vehicle on the market, VW would have to sell about 100,000 in 2020 to meet the company’s CO2 targets. 

But the Volkswagen ID.3 ramp has been rife with issues. While the vehicles can be produced efficiently using the company’s extensive experience in car manufacturing, the ID.3’s software has proven troublesome. Simply put, the software of the vehicle does not work as it should, and VW experts have pointed the finger at the company’s haste in rolling out the all-electric car for production. Volkswagen experts have noted that the ID.3’s underlying architecture was developed too hastily, as the car’s system parts often don’t understand each other, resulting in errors. 

Thus, every day, those involved with the ID.3 project meet and try to solve the car’s underlying issues. Manager Magazin‘s sources note that Volkswagen is now operating at an almost military level in its efforts to fix the ID.3’s software issues, but still, hundreds of test drivers report new faults in the vehicle nearly every day. One of the magazine’s sources, who claimed to be present in these meetings, noted that up to 300 faults could be reported in one day. 

Amidst these issues, Volkswagen has adjusted the ID.3’s target from 100,000 in 2020 to just 80,000. Fortunately for the German automaker, it is a big company, and it includes carmakers such as Audi and Porsche, both of whom have already released their respective electric cars. But even these two companies’ EVs are not exactly rolling out smoothly either. The e-tron recently halted its production due to battery constraints from LG Chem, prompting Audi to lower the premium SUV’s forecast from 70,000 to 40,000 this year. The Porsche Taycan, despite excellent reviews from car enthusiasts, is also getting its deliveries in Germany delayed. 

Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess has stated that the shift to electric mobility will be difficult, noting at a top management conference last month that the compliance with the limits for supplying, building, and selling battery electric vehicles was “perhaps the most difficult task Volkswagen has ever had to face.” Considering the ID.3 program’s progress so far, as well as reports that the Porsches and Piëchs, VW’s major owners, are growing restless, it appears that the company’s EV challenges may just be beginning. 

Ultimately, the ID.3’s issues are an unfortunate roadblock to the EV movement as a whole. The vehicle, after all, is a mass-market car, and it has the potential to be the second coming of the ubiquitous Beetle. The company just has to get its software settled and refined first–something that a small carmaker from Silicon Valley seems to have predicted when it started developing its first vehicles less than two decades ago.

H/T to JPR007.

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Dust devils are pretty common on Mars – the Red Planet is, after all, a very dusty and windy place. What’s a bit more rare is capturing one of the whirling devils on film. That’s because they fade away nearly as quickly as they appear.

But in October 2019, NASA’s Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter managed to snap a photo of a massive dust devil in action, courtesy of the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter’s High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE), a powerful camera that’s been snapping photos of the Martian surface since 2006.

NASA’s first glimpse of one of these dust storms came in 1971 when the Mariner 9 spacecraft — the first to orbit another planet — arrived at the red planet. Since then, we’ve seen quite a few of these dusty spectacles global storms: in 1977 (twice), 1982, 1994, 2001, 2007 and 2018.

In 2018, we lost the Opportunity rover to the strongest dust storm ever observed on Mars. It blotted out nearly all of the sun’s light for several weeks, turning day into night and preventing the rover from being able to charge its batteries. (Opportunity and its twin, Spirit, ran on solar power, as opposed to Curiosity and the Mars 2020 rover, which run on nuclear power.)

Martian dust storms are common, especially at specific times in the year, like during the southern hemisphere’s spring and summer. Localized storms tend to last a couple of days and can cover regions of the planet the size of the United States. But planet-encircling ones are a different story.

These massive, global storms are usually unpredictable, and can linger for months at a time. “We still don’t know what drives the variability, but the 2018 storm gives another data point,” says Scott Guzewich, an atmospheric scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, who’s a lead in NASA’s dust storm investigation.

Dust devils are rotating columns of air and dust that form when hot air from the surface rises. The current of air created forms a whirlwind, which can be useful for clearing off solar panels on spacecraft as they pass over.

As we move towards potential human missions we need to know how the dust will affect astronauts as well as their equipment. Understanding how often these phenomena occur will be extremely helpful for future missions.

During the dust storm of 2018, Curiosity was able to collect data about the storm, watching as its effects were felt half a world away from where Opportunity sat, hunkered down and hibernating.

Curiosity discovered that dust devils disappear during a dust storm, which happens to be when we need them the most. And they’re gone for several months afterwards as well. This is because the storm interrupts the wind-generating processes that spawn the dust devils.

According to Guzewich, understanding a global storm’s impact on dust devils is a crucial component in planning how to manage equipment during future Mars missions. “You need to be prepared to go a while before your next dust devil passes over and cleans you off,” he said.

Researchers at the University of Arizona recently published details on a newly photographed dust devil, which formed on the volcanic plains of Amazonis Planitia.

According to the HiRISE imaging team, the core of the dust devil is 164 feet (50 meters) wide, and probably about 2,32 feet (650 meters) tall. As massive as it sounds, there are even larger ones whirling around.

In March 2012, HiRISE took a photo of an active dust devil that was a whopping 12 miles (20 kilometers) tall. But was only slightly wider than the most recent one, at just over 229 feet (70 meters) wide.

For the first time, humanity has a fleet of spacecraft orbiting Mars as well as one rover roaming the surface right now (with two more to follow in the coming months). With their help, scientists will be able to better understand this puzzling phenomenon.

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Just like the upcoming all-electric Tesla Cybetruck, Hot Wheels and Mattel’s 1:10 scale model Cybertruck RC is sensational, selling out five hours after its website launched.

The toy for the big boys remote-controlled Cybertruck was unveiled during the Toy Fair 2020 at the Javits Convention Center in New York. The $400 scaled version of the Cybertruck instantly became the darling of the fair. Primarily designed for collectors, the RC Cybertruck comes with functioning headlamps and taillights, full suspension, all-wheel drive, and, of course, sports the eye-catching dystopian design of Elon Musk’s much-awaited pickup truck. The toy Cybertruck will also feature an operational tonneau, a telescoping tailgate and a loading ramp. It will even have a removable exterior so one can appreciate the interior design of the vehicle.

“The CyberTruck was unveiled November 21, 2019 and on the 22nd we went to work. We started looking at internet references and screen grabs and we mocked up our best stab for a prototype,” Director of Product Design at Mattel Gerry Cody said in an interview with Fatherly.

Mattel and Hot Wheels’ partnership with Tesla is not new by any means as the toymaker started with the Tesla Roadster. In fact, they have a toy Tesla Roadster on the dash of the electric sportscar that Musk sent into space. It has also created products based on the Model S, Model X, and Model 3.

The two companies know Tesla well to the point that they were allowed to produce a reusable broken window glass vinyl that toy collectors can put on their scaled-down Cybertruck.

“When we started building the prototypes, my team and I started asking: what are the features, what are the specs, and we thought about the glass. We weren’t sure what Tesla’s sensitivity was going to be regarding that moment,” Cody said. “We said ‘How about a reusable vinyl sticker?’ And they were into it. It’s not full-time, you users can take it on and off, but it’s something that’s just a great little detail.”

According to Cody, the Cybertruck RC is the fastest item for Mattel that zoomed past idea pitch to pre-sale in a matter of 90 days. They’re also amazed how the mini Cybertruck sold out so fast in a few hours.

Only serious toy collectors and Tesla fans would spend hundreds of dollars to get their hands on a scaled version of the Tesla Cybertruck and this further proves the dedicated following of the company within the electric vehicle community.

Elon Musk’s authenticity also reflects on how the company handles unexpected events such as the breaking of the Cybertruck’s windows during its unveiling. Tesla turned it to a marketing opportunity and even released a Cybertruck “bulletproof” t-shirt. A genius move.

Tesla’s collaboration with Mattel and Hot Wheels is a way to extend its showrooms to the rest of the globe. A child holding a 1:64 fast Cybertruck RC or a Tesla fan showcasing a 1:10 scaled model of the electric pickup truck can ultimately help spread the word about the vehicle and the company as a whole.

Of course, the limited-production Cybertruck Hotwheels RC went viral and built up more awareness about the real Cybertruck, which according to Elon Musk had 250,000 orders a few weeks after its unwrapping and roughly 500,000 preorders based on a recent take of an unofficial tracker created by Tesla fans.

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A new SpaceX Starlink job posting hints that the company is very interested in an established multi-billion dollar market for high-quality satellite internet – a use-case its Starlink constellation should be a perfect fit for.

One of the biggest sources for a recent boom in global demand for satellite broadband services, in-flight connectivity (IFC) is a rapidly growing market well on its way to multi-billion dollar annual revenues within the next few years. Almost anyone with any experience traveling by air is likely familiar with the promises and pitfalls offered by in-flight WiFi, which can often feel extremely convenient and futuristic while still bringing up old memories of DSL internet and flip-phones. Arguably, most – if not all – of the downsides of modern in-flight connectivity and the patchwork addition of onboard servers carrying limited offline entertainment options are caused by technical limitations in the existing IFC ‘pipeline’.

Meanwhile, SpaceX is just a few months into the years-long process of manufacturing and launching a vast constellation of thousands of Starlink internet satellites, designed to blanket every inch of the Earth with high-quality internet service. With internal goals stretching as high as ~40,000 satellites, Starlink could one day offer enough bandwidth to singlehandedly satisfy the internet needs of hundreds of millions – if not billions – of customers worldwide. In the interim, however, how and where SpaceX chooses to commercially deploy its nascent constellation will be critical in its first few years of operations, and in-flight connectivity is one such place where Starlink could theoretically crush existing options and come to dominate the growing market.

A few days ago, SpaceX published its first job posting exclusively dedicated to “aeronautical terminals”, referring to a type of Starlink user terminals (an antenna and associated hardware) optimized for installation on aircraft fuselages. Thanks to an almost $29 million Starlink contract awarded by the US Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) contract in 2018, SpaceX has already built and successfully tested aeronautical terminal prototypes on military aircraft, with even more ambitious tests soon to come. As such, it would be reasonable to assume than a new job posting for such terminals would be focused on SpaceX’s military work.

Instead, SpaceX’s February 21st listing explicitly refers to the new position as an opportunity to “[certify] Starlink aeronautical terminals [for] commercial and business jet aircraft…[and] play a critical role in deploying an industry-changing In-Flight Communications (IFC) service”, unequivocally confirming the company’s interest in entering the broader IFC market.

While SpaceX has already launched an incredible 240 Starlink v1.0 satellites in the last two months alone, the company has yet to reveal any specific information about the user terminals customers will use to connect to the orbiting network. Earlier this year, CEO Elon Musk did briefly mention that the terminal would look like a “thin, flat, round UFO on a stick”, while COO and President Gwynne Shotwell stated last year that the terminal would be “beautiful” at Musk’s request. Aside from those comments and a few even older ones, the no-less-critical Starlink component remains a bit of a mystery, although we do know that SpaceX intends to mass produce millions of the devices itself.

Still, SpaceX has made it clear that it’s already testing terminals with some success, noting late last year that it managed to deliver bandwidth of ~610 megabits per second (Mbps) to a US military aircraft through a single flight-optimized terminal. That testing was performed with 60 ‘v0.9’ satellites, meaning that all Starlink satellites launched after May 2019 should be able to offer even more bandwidth thanks to the addition of higher-capacity ‘Ka-band’ antennas.

While much is still unknown, the available details paint a fascinating picture of Starlink’s potential in the IFC market. Driven by unprecedentedly ambitious and strict cost targets, SpaceX already builds, owns, and operates its own Falcon rockets, Starlink satellites, and (soon) Starlink terminals – including variants optimized for consumer, aeronautical, and ground station use. In short, SpaceX is building the most vertically-integrated space-based service in the history of commercial space.

What can effectively be considered a very early pre-alpha of the Starlink satellites, terminals, and network has already demonstrated the ability to deliver bandwidth of more than 600 Mbps to a single in-flight aircraft, at least five times better than the best solutions currently available (~100 Mbps). Thanks to their location in low Earth orbit (LEO), Starlink satellites will also be able to offer latency (the gap between when you click and when something happens) as good as or better than what most people have access to on the ground.

By building and owning every critical aspect of the complex pipeline needed for its Starlink network, SpaceX has full control from start to finish. With Falcon 9 rockets and Starlink satellites, this has meant that SpaceX can reach cost targets that are up to several times cheaper than competing solutions and do so while meeting or beating their technical capabilities. With in-flight connectivity, the rockets, satellites, terminals, and ground infrastructure needed to create a functional network all factor heavily into the prices that can be offered to end-users and as of 2020, there simply isn’t an IFC provider on Earth in a position to compete with the level of vertical integration SpaceX may be able to offer.

If SpaceX can launch several thousand satellites and figure out how to affordably mass-produce unprecedentedly high-performance terminals (still up for debate), it’s safe to say that Starlink is going to run through existing IFC providers like a brick wall. Aside from potentially beating them on cost, Starlink – offering perhaps 600-1000+ Mbps per plane – could theoretically allow 100-200 airline passengers to simultaneously stream videos, browse the web, and even game in flight as if they were on the ground. Existing providers are physically incapable of competing with something like that without extensive infrastructure upgrades.

According to Satellite Markets & Research, the annual revenue of passenger aircraft IFC broke $1 billion for the first time in 2018 and the overall market is expected to be worth at least $36 billion (~$3.5B/year) from 2019 to 2029. Major provider Inmarsat estimates that the IFC market could be worth up to $15 billion annually by 2035. With a bit of luck, SpaceX could easily secure a major portion of that pot within just a handful of years.

Check out Teslarati’s newsletters for prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket launch and recovery processes.

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New footage of the Tesla Model Y has emerged showing the company’s first all-electric crossover at the test track outside of the Fremont production plant where it ran spirited laps and launches. The Model Y can be seen testing at the factory’s South Lot, performing through a series of banked turns at the company’s testing facility.

Twitter user Nicolae B. (@earthling_dream) spotted multiple Model Y vehicles roaming around Tesla’s test park on February 24. The video of the electric crossover driving through the turn and accelerating out into a straightaway gives viewers the impression that despite its Model X-like spacious design it can still perform as well as its smaller, best-in-class Model 3 sibling.

Exciting times! Tesla Model Y deliveries imminent. https://t.co/o5Vxcj7l1Q

— Team Teslarati (@TeslaratiApp) February 24, 2020

The second video shows two Model Ys that appear to be gearing up for launches on a drag strip. One vehicle appears to be making its way to the starting line, while the other seems to have just finished a run. Nicolae states that all of the Model Y vehicles being tested that day were Performance variants, and it would not be a surprise considering its impressive display of acceleration out of the turn.

Multiple Tesla Model Y testing at Fremont https://t.co/UDBRVtKeS1

— Team Teslarati (@TeslaratiApp) February 24, 2020

The sighting of the Model Y on the track hints that Tesla’s Model Y is developing as expected after the company announced that the Model Y would begin deliveries in March ahead of its initial originally planned Summer 2020 delivery date.

This is not the first time Tesla has uncorked the Model Y at the Fremont test track. It was spotted ripping through the track in mid-December 2019 by Global Equities Research analyst Trip Chowdhry. During a visit to Fremont for a factory check, Chowdhry spoke highly of the Model Y after watching it rip around the track, indicating that the vehicle’s performance was impressive considering its “super-high speeds during rain and heavy winds.”

The Model Y will initially be available in a Dual-Motor Long Range and Dual-Motor Performance variants. The Long Range variant will offer an EPA estimated 315 miles of range with a 135 MPH top speed, while the Performance variant will have a 280-mile range rating (when equipped with larger Uberturbine wheels) and a top speed of 145 MPH.

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The Audi factory in Belgium paused the production of the e-tron SUV citing production issues such as a battery supply bottleneck. The production of Audi Brussels was shut down Thursday last week and is expected to last until Tuesday.

According to Audi insiders, aside from battery supply issues, there are also shortages of other parts such as rear lights for the e-tron and even sun visors, reported Belgian publication L’Echo.

The spokesperson for Audi’s plant in Brussels clarified that the production issues are not because of the coronavirus outbreak in China where global car manufacturers’ factories for car parts are located.

The factory in Brussels produces the Audi e-tron and the e-tron Sportback, the first two electric vehicles of the German carmaker under the umbrella of Volkswagen. Audi sold about 26,400 e-trons in 2019 but the company declined to give an estimate on deliveries this year, according to Bloomberg.

The current halt in production shows how traditional carmakers struggle to keep up with the pace of Tesla, the undoubted leader in the electric vehicle industry today. Unlike traditional car manufacturers, a recent teardown of the Model 3 by Nikkei Business Publications revealed that Tesla does not depend on multiple other suppliers for its parts, allowing it to push itself to the limits in terms of technologies it wants to use for its vehicles.

In January, Volkswagen CEO Herbert Deiss emphasized during a global board meeting with the company’s senior managers that they need to act fast to avoid having a similar fate as Finnish phone maker Nokia that wasn’t able to keep up with the technology. This announcement came just a couple months after Audi announced that it plans to cut 9,500 jobs through 2025, which will save it 6 billion euros and help fund its push to make electric cars.

Audi Brussels’ halt in e-tron production paints a picture of how labeled “Tesla Killers” simply don’t match the current technologies and capabilities of the electric car maker, despite having the resources for the production of petrol-powered cars. Putting car parts together to make a vehicle is one thing but they still need to catch up in other aspects such as connectivity and driver-assist systems, among other things.

Oh, of course, the killer blow can also be seen when you look at the details, too. The image of an Audi e-tron’s cockpit reminding its owner to change oil is just difficult to look at just like this one below shared by Twitter user  Georg Konjovic.

Audi hat den Sprung ins elektrische Zeitalter noch nicht ganz verkraftet. Am Ölwechsel hängt man noch sehr. Im Bild: Auto e-tron Cockpit. pic.twitter.com/6ghNL2rFuW

— Georg Konjovic (@GeorgKonjovic) January 18, 2020

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Recent images of a Tesla Model Y release candidate with its rear hatch open has provided a small teaser of the upcoming all-electric crossover’s rear cargo space. Based on the photos, it appears that the Model Y’s primary luggage area is very generous, to the point where it almost seems comparable to that of the larger Tesla Model X. This is quite impressive, especially considering that the Model Y shares 75% of its parts with the Model 3 sedan, which is far smaller than the Model X. 

The new pictures were shared on the Tesla Model Y Enthusiasts Facebook page, with members Thomas Andre Davik and Josh Jones sharing a couple of new shots from a recent Model Y sighting. Fortunately, the two Tesla enthusiasts were able to capture a photo of the vehicle with its open rear hatch, showing how much cargo space is available when the second row seats are up. 

Tesla Model Y trunk (Source: Thomas Andre Davik | Model Y Enthusiast Facebook Page)

Tesla Model Y extra storage under main trunk(Source: Josh Jones | Model Y Enthusiast Facebook Page)

The Tesla Model Y with rear hatch open. (Credit: Thomas Andre Davik and Josh Jones/Facebook)

Immediately noticeable from the images was the fact that the Model Y’s luggage area is quite large. Surprisingly large, in fact, even without its additional storage space underneath the trunk itself. An image of this additional storage area shows that it is quite deep as well, possibly fitting a couple of extra bags during long drives. 

Reactions from the Tesla community show that the Model Y’s cargo space may end up being a key selling point for the upcoming vehicle. Tesla Model X 90D owner and r/TeslaMotors subreddit member u/kenriko noted that the Model Y’s luggage space looks comparable in utility as his vehicle’s cargo area with its third row folded. Fellow Tesla enthusiast Christopher Pichner also remarked that the Model Y’s design makes for a cargo area that looks more usable than his 2018 Subaru Forester, which lists a 76 cu ft of luggage space versus the Model Y’s 66 cu ft.

These observations, while only based on a couple of new photos of the Model Y, bodes well for the upcoming all-electric crossover, as it suggests that Tesla is pretty much optimizing the vehicle’s utility as much as possible, making it more attractive to the mainstream crossover market. The comparisons to the Model X’s cargo space are quite impressive too, considering that the Model Y shares most of its parts with Tesla’s smallest vehicle today, the Model 3. 

As the Model Y nears its first deliveries, it is becoming more and more evident that the vehicle is designed to disrupt an established auto market. Apart from its competitive price, the Model Y has the performance to match, with its top-tier version being capable of sprinting from 0-60 mph in 3.5 seconds. The Model Y also has a middle row pass-through feature that will allow owners to transport long items like skis without any issues. Together with a seemingly very generous trunk space, these little details may very well prove to be among the reasons why the Model Y may eventually start eating into the market of mainstream vehicles like the Honda CR-V and the Toyota RAV-4, much like the Model 3 and more affordable cars like the Toyota Corolla and the Honda Accord. 

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Tesla is urging the German government to lift a ban on Sundays and holidays for electric trucks, according to a report.

Recent reports from Germany indicated that a delegation from the electric vehicle manufacturer recently met with Steffen Bilger, the Parliamentary State Secretary in the Federal Ministry of Transport (BMVI) to discuss the abolition of the ban that has been in effect since May 1956, among other topics.

The truck ban prohibits commercial trucks weighing 7.5 tons from 12 midnight to 10 p.m on Sundays and holidays with the primary purpose of protecting citizens from noise and pollution. A similar law is also in effect in most countries in Europe.

Following the conversation with the electric car maker, German authorities reportedly pledged to look into the matter. “During a conversation at the BMVI with Mr. Bilger and representatives from Tesla, options for strengthening sustainable modern mobility were discussed, especially with regard to the logistics area,” a Ministry of Transport spokesperson said.

While Tesla has not commented on the matter yet, the move bodes well if the electric vehicle maker plans to introduce the Tesla Semi in Europe in the near future. With clearer regulations in Europe, Tesla can better position the Tesla Semi as an industry disruptor that can operate in areas and days when petrol-powered trucks aren’t even allowed on the roads. If the electric truck will be allowed on the roads of Germany and the rest of Europe seven days a week, logistics companies in Europe may turn their sight into a greener cargo hauler such as the Tesla Semi.

The Tesla Semi was unveiled in November 2017 and is expected to start limited production this year. Tesla notes that the Semi will give owners about $200,000 in fuel savings compared to its diesel counterparts within the first few years of its service. It’s also capable of hitting 0 to 60 mph in just 20 seconds even while fully-loaded.

The base price of the truck is listed at $150,000 for its 300-mile range version and $180,000 for the 500-mile range iteration. There’s also a Founders Series with a sticker price of $200,000.

Tesla has been closely coordinating with German authorities as it works closer to begin construction of its Giga Berlin in Grunheide. The first factory of Tesla in Europe is expected to focus on the production of the Model Y during its initial phase and has a target capacity of 10,000 vehicles per week.

It is not yet clear if Giga Berlin will also be tooled to produce the Tesla Semi but it will not be a surprise if the Silicon Valley electric vehicle manufacturer sees the big potential of the electric cargo hauler in Europe especially with adjustments of regulations going in its favor.

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NASA has revealed that the astronauts assigned to SpaceX’s Crew Dragon astronaut launch debut are training for a space station mission many times longer than initially planned.

Scheduled to deliver two NASA astronauts to and from the International Space Station (ISS) no earlier than (NET) late-April or May 2020, Crew Dragon’s Demo-2 mission will be the first crewed launch in SpaceX’s 18-year history. As previously noted on Teslarati (and by NASA itself, briefly), Demo-2 will also mark the first time in history that a privately-built spacecraft attempts to launch humans into orbit.

Still, NASA has funded the development of Crew Dragon (and competitor Boeing’s Starliner) not to achieve firsts but to restore the United States’ ability to launch its own astronauts to the ISS. Along those lines, both Crew Dragon (Demo-2) and Starliner’s (CFT) astronaut test flights were nominally designed to last about a week or two before returning NASA’s astronauts to Earth – a full end-to-end test for both extraordinarily complex vehicles. Two weeks, however, is simply not long enough for those astronauts to practically serve as full members of space station crew, something the ISS generally requires. In response, NASA has been seriously considering extending Boeing’s crewed test flight and has just recently suggested that SpaceX’s own Demo-2 test flight will be similarly upgraded.

About a month ago, SpaceX and NASA talked openly about the possibility of a longer-duration Crew Dragon astronaut launch debut for the first time, potentially extending the amount of time those astronauts are able to spend at the space station from about one week up to 1.5-3 months. This would allow Crew Dragon’s Demo-2 NASA astronauts – Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley – to serve as full members of the ISS crew, expanding the US presence from one to three astronauts.

Ars Technica’s Eric Berger offered some additional details about what exactly NASA might task Behnken and Hurley with on an extended flight earlier this month. Most importantly, the space agency wants the former astronaut – a Space Shuttle and extra-vehicular activity (EVA) veteran – to be (re)trained for spacewalks, allowing him to support an ever-growing to-do list of critical space station repairs and upgrades.

In effect, extending Crew Dragon’s astronaut flight test will make it almost identical to an “operational” flight where Crew Dragon ferries astronauts to the space station, docks for about six months, and finally returns the same astronauts to Earth at the end of its mission. More importantly, though, NASA’s decision to extend Commercial Crew Program (CCP) test flights – kickstarted with Boeing’s beleaguered Starliner spacecraft – is motivated by a desire to prevent the United States’ presence on the space station from dwindling or even regressing to zero in the near future.

Triggered by years of SpaceX and Boeing delays, NASA will now likely have to purchase more seats on Russian Soyuz launches if it wishes to maintain an full, uninterrupted presence on ISS for the next 12-24 months. After suffering numerous deeply concerning software failures on its first and only orbital launch, Boeing’s Starliner is unlikely to be ready to launch crew anytime soon. At the same time, although SpaceX is closer to its astronaut launch debut than ever before, it’s highly unlikely that Crew Dragon can singlehandedly support a full ISS complement of three NASA astronauts while Starliner works out its issues.

As such, NASA is looking everywhere it can to squeeze a bit more on-orbit time out of existing astronaut missions scheduled in the next year or so, and both Starliner and Crew Dragon’s test flights – barring showstoppers – are excellent opportunities. With NASA Johnson Space Center’s confirmation that both Behnken and Hurley are already deep into the extra training needed for an extended flight, chances are good that both astronauts will be ready for a one- or several-month mission by the time that NASA and SpaceX are ready and willing to launch.

Check out Teslarati’s newsletters for prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket launch and recovery processes.

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