LNG: TESLARATI

A Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) bear’s arguments about the impending arrival of competitors in the electric car market was boldly shut down in a recent segment on CNBC’s Squawk Box. During the exchange, veteran journalist Phil LeBeau aired what could only be described as a longtime sentiment from Tesla investors: After all those predictions, where are Tesla’s supposed competitors?

The Squawk Box segment featured Tasha Keeney of Ark Invest and Craig Irwin of Roth Capital Partners, each one representing the bull and bear side for TSLA stock. While Keeney reiterated ARK’s optimistic stance on Tesla and its potential in the full self-driving market, Irwin instead focused on what he alleged was the electric car maker’s disadvantage in battery technology. The Tesla bear insisted that Tesla is currently paying $240/kWh for its cells from Japan while Porsche and Volkswagen are paying $250/kWh. This was a point that Phil LeBeau directly addressed, citing the findings of Sam Jaffe from Cairn Energy Research, who estimated that Tesla has reached costs of around $116 per kWh for its battery cells.

The Roth Capital Partners analyst added that he is taking a bearish stance against Tesla now due to the incoming wave of competitors that are coming to the market. Irwin specifically pointed to the Porsche Taycan as one of these vehicles.

“It’s starting this year. That’s why I chose to initiate with a bearish perspective. Porsche is going to come on with the Taycan, you’ve got Kia, you’ve got the I-PACE… You got to look at the history, so the Cayenne, the first thing they said 10, then they said 20, then it became 40. So it ramped very very quickly. They set expectations low, make a lot of money on the front end, and ramp. Porsche, their business is making money. They’re not about, you know, fluffing numbers. So if they think they can sell 30,000 cars into the market over the next 18 months and make a great profit on it, they’ll do it. But they’re not gonna flood the market to a point you know, it compresses margins,” Irwin claimed.  

Irwin’s thesis was immediately met by a rebuttal from LeBeau, who noted that the argument for Tesla competitors has been going on for a long time. The CNBC journalist argued that it is better for other carmakers to start showing (not just telling) how they can actually compete with Tesla by releasing a real, compelling electric vehicle.

“I think it poses a problem for Tesla from the standpoint of ‘Let’s finally see this vehicle.’ I honestly believe based on Tesla owners that I’ve talked with as well as those who track the company, we’re tired of hearing ‘the competitors are coming, the competitors are coming.’ Bring it out. Bring it out, and if Porsche’s Taycan is as impressive as the initial indications are, then it will be a threat to Tesla, but until then, this is a little bit like The Boy (Who) Cried Wolf. We hear it all the time. ‘There’s a wave of vehicles coming.’ Well, that wave of vehicles isn’t here yet. It was supposed to be here by 2019. It’s not here yet. When does it get here? If I’m a Tesla investor, I’m not too worried about this argument until we start to see these vehicles,” LeBeau retorted.

Phil LeBeau was actually being quite generous when he noted that the Porsche Taycan will be a threat to Tesla. Porsche is a niche carmaker, and it is a company that prioritizes the exclusivity of its vehicles. At most, the Taycan will eat into the Model S’ sales since they compete in the same segment. The German-made all-electric car from Porsche will not compete in the same mass-market segment as the Model 3, or the Model Y for that matter.

One thing that Tesla skeptics always seem to forget is that electric vehicles from other carmakers will not kill or overwhelm Tesla. Instead, they are vehicles that contribute to the mission of the electric car maker, which is to encourage the world to shift away from the internal combustion engine. Thus, every Taycan and I-PACE that is sold is not a lost sale for Tesla; it is a lost sale for gas and diesel-powered vehicles.

Watch the recent TSLA bull vs. bear debate in CNBC’s Squawk Box in the video below. 

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

An announcement from the Norwegian Road Federation (NRF) has revealed that nearly 60% of all vehicles sold in Norway last month were all-electric, setting a new record for EV sales in the country. Behind this historic milestone is the arrival of a sedan that was designed to disrupt the auto industry: the Tesla Model 3.

Norway registered 10,316 electric vehicles in March, comprising 58.4% of all car sales in the month. This was the first time that EVs accounted for more than 50% of all auto sales in the country. The market share of all-electric cars in the first quarter was also the highest recorded at 48.4%.

What is rather remarkable about Norway’s EV sales record was that it was largely driven by the Tesla Model 3, which set a new benchmark for competing electric car makers by selling 5,315 vehicles in March. That’s far above the previous record held by the Nissan Leaf, which sold 2,172 units in one month last year.

More than 18,000 cars were registered in Norway on March, over 10,000 of which were electric vehicles. From this number, 5,822 were Tesla Model S, Model 3, and Model X. This means that in March, Tesla accounted for over 31% of Norway’s car sales, or one in every three vehicles. For a 15-year-old carmaker, such a feat is incredibly impressive.

Granted, Norway is but a small country, and its sales will likely pale in comparison to the numbers that will be produced by territories like China. Nevertheless, Tesla’s Model 3-driven milestone carries a lot of significance, as it all but proves that demand for the electric sedan is significant in territories beyond the United States.

Among the most prominent bear thesis against Tesla this first quarter was the assumption that demand for its vehicles has weakened significantly. Last week alone, RBC analyst Joseph Spak reduced his price target on Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) by $35 to $210 over what be cited as “meager demand” for the Model 3. Norway’s March figures are a direct rebuttal of this assumption, as it shows that it is far too early to discount the demand for the Model 3, at least until the vehicle gets a chance to compete in the international market.

Norway’s EV sales records in March also proved that it is possible to quickly and aggressively adopt electric transportation. Secretary-General Christina Bu of the Norwegian EV Association highlighted this point in a statement to news agency Elbil.no.

“Norway has every reason to be proud of breaking more BEV records. The BEV policy is working so well that the larger part of consumers opts for a BEV when buying a new car. Norway shows the whole world that fully electric cars can replace petrol and diesel cars and become an important contribution to combat CO2 emissions, as well as relieving local air from other harmful gases caused by burning fossil fuels,” Bu said.

Norway’s milestone is a victory for Tesla, whose parimary mission as frequently noted by Elon Musk is to accelerate the transition of the world to sustainable energy. Encouraging the transportation sector to adopt electric cars is a valuable component of this goal, and with Norway’s March sales numbers, the country and the carmaker have proved such a goal is not too far-fetched. All it takes is open support for EVs and an electric car that is better than its gasoline counterparts in every way.

Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) is getting a vote of confidence from Wall St. following its massive delivery push during the end of the first quarter. In a recent note, Canaccord Genuity analyst Jed Dorsheimer pointed out that the Model 3, particularly its most affordable variants, could become one of the best-value vehicles available in the market today.

Dorsheimer’s note was published following a visit to Tesla’s Fremont factory, where he was given the opportunity to drive the Standard Plus Model 3. Presently starting at $37,500 before savings, the Standard Plus Model 3 is one step up from the $35,000 version, offering an improved interior, 240 miles of range, a 140 mph top speed, and a 0-60 mph time of 5.3 seconds. Dorsheimer was impressed with the vehicle during his test drive.

“This introduction and the consumer response to the quantum leap forward in performance will capture the lion-share of current EV offerings. With the performance of a 911 and the price of an Audi A4 or BMW 3 series, we see the Model 3 as the best value proposition currently on the market today,” the analyst wrote.

Following his visit to the Fremont factory, Dorsheimer maintained a “Buy” rating for Tesla stock, as well as a price target of $450 per share.

Apart from the Canaccord analyst, Tesla shares have also received a vote of optimism from Wedbush Securities managing director Dan Ives. In a recent appearance in Bloomberg Technology, the analyst noted that while the first quarter could present some white-knuckle moments for Tesla due to Model 3 delivery delays in Europe and China, the company could see stronger demand for its vehicles in the near future.

“Production continues to be, as we’ve talked about our visits to Giga and Fremont, I think production is obviously ramping to a point we feel very comfortable with. It’s now more of a demand story… We continue to think (in the) second half of the year, demand looks a lot stronger, but this is sort of a white-knuckle period going into this 1Q” Ives said.

All eyes are now on Tesla as it prepares to release its first-quarter vehicle production and delivery report. Signs from Elon Musk seems to hint at the company doing better than expected, with the CEO proving lighthearted and generally relaxed over the final weekend of March. In between fun, self-deprecating, goofy tweets, Musk made it a point to highlight the efforts of the Tesla team in Europe and China, both of which continued vehicle deliveries all the way until the end of the quarter. Musk also tweeted specifically about the Tesla Semi’s production, stating that he is excited to bring the all-electric long-hauler to market.

As of writing, Tesla stock is trading -0.85% at $286.72.

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

Tesla has just completed the first quarter of 2019, and all eyes are now on the company as it prepares to release its first quarter vehicle production and deliveries report. As the electric car maker’s supporters and critics brace for the release of Tesla’s official numbers, Elon Musk appears to be maintaining a very pleasant disposition, hinting at a possible Model 3 surprise for Q1.

Musk seemed notably relaxed during the last two days of March. Over the weekend, Musk tweeted about ducks, released a heavily autotuned rap song titled RIP Harambe, and lamented the fall of his record label (named Emo G Records), just to name a few. The tweets exhibited Musk’s classic witty, self-deprecating humor, but most of all, they were notably (and given the time of the tweets, surprisingly) lighthearted. These seemingly random, goofy tweets were interspersed with messages of thanks to the Tesla team, which continued to push vehicle deliveries all the way until the end of March 31.

“Amazing work by Tesla Delivery teams, especially in Europe & China! Most insane logistics challenge I’ve ever seen. Thanks also to many country & city officials for your help this weekend! Super appreciated,” Musk wrote on Twitter.

Musk’s sunny disposition and quirky, off-topic tweets at the end of the quarter could be interpreted in several ways, one of these being that Tesla has met or even exceeded the CEO’s expectations for Q1 2019. Musk has been conservative about Tesla’s performance in the first quarter, even noting that Tesla might not be profitable in Q1. Despite these, Musk has set ambitious goals for the Tesla team, noting in an email midway through March that the company should aim to deliver 30,000 more vehicles by the end of the quarter.

What then, could be the reason behind Elon Musk’s tweet-filled weekend? A potential clue might lie in the Q1 estimates of Bloomberg‘s Model 3 tracker, which has become amazingly accurate over the past quarters. The tracker only overestimated Tesla’s Model 3 numbers once in the past, with the tool’s prediction being 0.4% over the electric car maker’s actual production figures. This accuracy was on display once more in Q4 2018, with the tracker being just 0.5% off Tesla’s actual numbers. By the end of Q1 2019, Bloomberg‘s Model 3 tracker was estimating a production of 79,856 Model 3, far above the average analyst estimate of 64,000 units listed by research firm Visible Alpha.

Whether Bloomberg‘s Model 3 tracker will prove to be as accurate as before or uncharacteristically inaccurate this time around remains to be seen. Considering reports from countries such as China, where deliveries were conducted until the midnight of March 31, there is a pretty fair chance that Elon Musk’s pleasant mood might bode well for Tesla after all.