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Tesla analysts weigh in as TSLA falls 8% following production and delivery report

Simon Alvarez

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Posted on April 4, 2019


Tesla shares (NASDAQ:TSLA) experienced a steep drop on Thursday in the wake of the release of its Q1 2019 vehicle production and delivery report, which showed a roughly 30% decline in deliveries and a 12% drop in production. These declines were especially prominent in the Model S and Model X.

The electric car maker’s stock has always been polarizing, and this became even more prominent following the release of Tesla’s Q1 numbers. Analysts from both the bull and bear side have weighed in on Tesla’s results for the first quarter. Here are some of their takes:

RBC analysts took particular notice to the company’s Model S and Model X delivery numbers, which they called “very disappointing.” The analysts also estimated that the flagship vehicles’ numbers will translate to an over $1 billion shortfall in revenue for the company.

Cowen and Co analysts expressed their reservations about the company’s funds, stating that the delivery and transit details released by the electric car maker suggested that “cash was likely dangerously low” following Tesla’s payment of a $920 million convertible bond obligation in cash at the beginning of March.

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Analysts from JP Morgan gave Tesla an Underweight rating while lowering their price target to $200 from $215. The analysts noted that “Tesla’s 1Q19 vehicle production & deliveries report was substantially worse than expected.” The analysts also took note of the Model S and X’s decline in sales, stating the drop could be “implying a deceleration in underlying demand unrelated to temporary delivery difficulties (maybe due to tax credit expiration?).”

Canaccord Genuity analysts have taken a more optimistic stance, reiterating their Buy rating while adjusting their price target from $450 to $391. The analysts points out that while they were “disappointed in the shortfall of deliveries in Q1 versus expectations,” they “continue to believe that the new lower-priced Model 3 variant will spur additional demand.”

Loup Ventures remained quite optimistic about Tesla as well, despite admitting that the magnitude of the Model S and X miss was a surprise. The firm noted that it was “focused on underlying demand,” highlighting Tesla’s statement that it has “sufficient cash on hand.” The firm added that while it is “unlikely that Tesla will have to raise money in the Jun-19 quarter, (but) we believe raising money would be the right strategic move long-term.”

While Tesla stock is getting beaten down on Thursday, there have been no notable downgrades by any brokerages so far. Tesla shares are currently rated “Buy” or higher by 12 of the 30 brokerages covering the company, 7 rated the company with a “Hold,” and 11 kept a “Sell” or lower rating. Part of this could be due to Elon Musk already setting expectations early in March, when he stated that Tesla might not be profitable this quarter.

Tesla’s production and delivery figures for the first quarter highlights the company’s growing pains as it starts pushing the Model 3 to international markets. In Q1 2019, Tesla produced a total of 77,100 vehicles, consisting of 62,950 Model 3 and 14,150 Model S and X. Total deliveries declined to 63,000 vehicles, which is comprised of approximately 50,900 Model 3 and 12,100 Model S and X.

As of writing, Tesla shares are trading -7.75% at $269.19.

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

Tesla analysts weigh in as TSLA falls 8% following production and delivery report


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Tesla’s Q1 delivery results highlight the need for a Model S and Model X update

Simon Alvarez

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Posted on April 4, 2019


One of the most notable takeaways from Tesla’s Q1 2019 vehicle production and deliveries report was the steep decline in Model S and Model X sales. Over the course of the quarter, Tesla produced 14,150 Model S and X, a drastic drop from the 25,000 units that were manufactured last quarter. Deliveries of the flagship sedan and SUV also fell to 12,100 units. Under these circumstances, it appears that the time is now right for Tesla to start preparing for the release of an updated Model S and Model X.

A steep decline

Tesla did not provide a commentary behind the decline in Model S and X sales. This does not mean that the lower production and delivery figures of the vehicles were a complete surprise, as Tesla did shift a lot of its efforts in producing the Model S in favor of the Model 3 in Q1. The vehicles’ entry-level trim, the 75D variant, was also discontinued. Thus, the signs of a decline were already there. What was really surprising was the scope and gravity of the decline.

A possible explanation behind the Model S and Model X’s numbers in the first quarter may lie in the simple fact that the vehicles, particularly the full-size premium sedan, are getting long in the tooth. Tesla started producing the Model S in 2012, and the vehicle has pretty much stayed the same since then, save for a facelift when the Model X was released. Granted, improvements were rolled out to the Model S as soon as they were available, as noted by Elon Musk in a tweet, but design-wise, Tesla’s flagship sedan is still practically competing in the market with a nearly 7-year-old interior and exterior.

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The Model 3’s immense success did not help the Model S’ case either. It should be noted that Tesla anti-sold the Model 3 after it was unveiled, with the company and Elon Musk asserting that the Model S was a superior vehicle. Now that the Model 3 is making a mark in several markets across the globe, it is becoming evident that the electric sedan is simply Tesla’s best bang-for-your-buck car. With Tesla’s latest hardware and batteries, the Model 3 is a solid choice. Other Model 3-specific features, such as Track Mode for the Performance variant, add to the vehicle’s attractiveness to car buyers.

The Model 3 is such a solid vehicle that it is starting to make the Model S a harder sell, at least in its present iteration. Granted, the Model S is larger, and it has more bells and whistles such as Smart Air Suspension and a second display, but these are luxuries that a significant number of car buyers will likely be willing to forego in exchange for savings associated with a Model 3 purchase. The Tesla Model Y appears set to do the same to the Model X as well, as the vehicle presents much of the premium SUV’s advantages in a smaller package, at a far more affordable price.

A better Model S and X in the Model 3 era

If Tesla wishes to rekindle the interest and justify the higher prices of its flagship sedan and SUV, it would be a good idea to introduce updated versions of the vehicles as soon as the company is able. These improvements can come in various forms, such as better range, significantly better performance, and a far more exquisite exterior and interior design. With these improvements in place, the Model S and X will not only have the advantage of larger cabin space and a handful of unique features over their more affordable stablemates. They will be vehicles that are truly, without a doubt, a class above the Model 3 (and the Model Y for that matter).

It’s not like Tesla does not seem to be preparing for a potential Model S and Model X update either. Last year, a patent application emerged depicting a Model S/X dashboard equipped with the Model 3’s clever and acclaimed HVAC system. Panasonic, Tesla’s battery partner, also announced last November that it is doubling down on its partnership with the electric car maker by bringing some of its Japan-based battery cell production activities to the United States.

In a statement to the Nikkei Asian Review, Panasonic stated that it will be bringing its operations that build the Model S and Model X’s 18650 cells over to a “US-based unit starting (next) April (2019).” Elon Musk noted during the Q4 earnings call that there are no plans to change the Model S and Model X’s batteries to 2170 cells. Perhaps improved 18650 cells are in order with Panasonic’s move to the US? One can hope.

At this point in Tesla’s history, it would probably be wise to temper expectations with regards to the Model S and Model X’s quarterly sales. Tesla is now at a point where it is pursuing the mass market, and the company is accomplishing this with the Model 3 (and later, the Model Y). The Model S and Model X will definitely still be the company’s flagships, but they will likely just see a sustained demand of perhaps 25,000 per quarter, and that’s completely fine. Both vehicles were brought to market to prove that electric cars can be better than their gasoline-powered counterparts. Both vehicles already accomplished their mission. The Model 3 and Model Y is proof of that.

Tesla’s Q1 delivery results highlight the need for a Model S and Model X update


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Elon Musk recognizes hackers who altered Tesla Autopilot behavior

Simon Alvarez

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Posted on April 2, 2019


Tesla CEO Elon Musk has praised the efforts of Chinese security research firm Tencent Keen Security Lab, which was able to hack into a Tesla Model S with Autopilot. Musk approved of the group’s efforts on Twitter, describing the hackers’ latest research as “solid work.”

“Solid work by Keen, as usual,” Musk wrote on Twitter.

Tencent Keen Security Lab outlined their findings in a blog post on Monday, stating that it was able to activate the Model S’ automatic windshield wipers using a special computer generated image. The group was also able to trick Autopilot’s lane-keeping capabilities by putting specific markings on a road. Lastly, the group successfully controlled the steering wheel of the vehicle using a wireless game controller.

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Elon Musk’s reception of the security lab’s work highlights Tesla’s tech-focused strategy and its efforts to make its vehicles as secure as possible. The company has been very open to the white hat hacking community, as shown by its willingness to give generous rewards for its ongoing Bug Bounty program, which covers the company’s electric cars and energy products, to name a few. Tesla even gave away a (now rare) Mid Range Model 3 RWD to security researchers who were able to hack into the electric sedan at the recently-held Pwn2Own 2019 event.  

This was not the first time that Keen Labs has found potential issues with the security of Tesla’s electric cars. Back in 2016, the group successfully hacked into a Model S to remotely control the vehicle’s brakes. Tesla promptly addressed the security weaknesses that the China-based researchers discovered.

Similar to its response then, Tesla has also addressed the security issues that allowed Keen Labs to hack into the Model S in its latest study. The company noted that the vulnerabilities which allowed Keen Labs to control the vehicle through a gamepad had already been addressed. A company spokesperson also stated that the vulnerabilities related to the Model S’ automatic wipers and Autopilot’s lane detection did not represent real-world scenarios.

“The rest of the findings are all based on scenarios in which the physical environment around the vehicle is artificially altered to make the automatic windshield wipers or Autopilot system behave differently, which is not a realistic concern given that a driver can easily override Autopilot at any time by using the steering wheel or brakes and should always be prepared to do so, and can manually operate the windshield wiper settings at all times,” Tesla noted.

The full results of Tencent Keen Security Lab’s study could be accessed here.

Elon Musk recognizes hackers who altered Tesla Autopilot behavior


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Porsche Taycan Turbo regen braking and sound details teased in first ride

Simon Alvarez

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Posted on April 4, 2019


The Porsche Taycan is nearing its official reveal, and the German carmaker is currently conducting the all-electric car’s final tests. As the vehicle’s last details get ironed out, auto publication CNET Roadshow was able to get an opportunity to ride shotgun in one of Porsche’s Taycan prototypes in Sweden, to experience the company’s next-generation vehicle firsthand.

The publication was able to take a ride in a test mule of the Taycan’s top-tier variant, a version speculated to be dubbed as the “Taycan Turbo.” Just as revealed in previous sightings, the Taycan Turbo boasts 600 horsepower with an all-wheel-drive powertrain that enables 0-60 mph times of less than 3.5 seconds. Over the course of the drive, several aspects of the vehicle became quite noticeable.

The Porsche Taycan will utilize a regenerative braking system that is quite different from those used by popular electric cars like the Tesla Model S, which engage their regen braking when the driver releases the accelerator. The Taycan does not do this, as the vehicle only coasts when the accelerator is released. The Taycan’s regenerative braking only happens when drivers press lightly on the brake pedal. When the brakes are pressed harder, the Taycan’s hydraulic brakes are engaged.

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Bernd Propfe, director of the Taycan’s platform product line, described the process to the publication. “Coasting is the most energy-efficient way to do it, because braking always goes along with a loss of energy, because no engine has a 100 percent ratio. We strongly believe that the customer, if he wants to brake, he should hit the brake,” he said.

While such a strategy will make one pedal driving impossible with the Taycan, the vehicle’s regenerative braking process is distinctly on-brand. Porsche prides itself as a maker of drivers’ cars, and requiring its customers to actively use both the accelerator and brake pedal while operating the Taycan could be considered part of the all-electric sedan’s genuine driving experience.

Also unique in the Taycan is the vehicle’s two-speed transmission at the rear. Electric cars like the Model S utilize a single gear transmission, partly due to the power generated by the vehicle’s electric motors. Tesla attempted a two-speed transmission in the original Roadster back in 2008, only to abandon the design after the transmission units showed a tendency to self-destruct just a fraction into the all-electric sports car’s lifespan. If Porsche’s design with the Taycan is any indication, it appears that the German carmaker is confident that it can use a two-speed transmission for the all-electric four-door sedan without compromising anything.

Propfe proved quite secretive when it came to the Taycan’s sound, only stating that it will be digitally created and it will change depending on the specific mode of the all-electric car. The platform line director added that the Taycan’s sound is still very much in development. Fortunately, this sound was captured recently in a sighting of a Taycan test mule in Copenhagen, Denmark. While taking off on a parking lot ramp, the Taycan gave off a truly unique noise that invoked a mix between a traditional high-performance sports car and a spaceship.

The Taycan’s sound is best heard firsthand. Make sure to keep the volume up.

And here’s CNET Roadshow‘s segment on its first ride with the Taycan.

Porsche Taycan Turbo regen braking and sound details teased in first ride


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Tesla Semi, all-electric trucks get scathing criticism from auto tech expert

Simon Alvarez

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Posted on April 4, 2019


The Tesla Semi might be receiving a lot of interest from companies and the electric vehicle community as a whole, but an automotive technology expert from Germany is not that impressed. In a statement, Chair of Automotive Engineering at the Technical University of Munich Markus Lienkamp criticized all-electric trucks like the Tesla Semi, stating that such vehicles are pretty much pointless in the economic and ecological sense.

“The battery for a Tesla Semi must have a capacity of about 1000 kWh, per 100 kilometers about 130 kilowatt-hours. This is technically not easily feasible and it’s also pointless both economically and ecologically,” he said.

Lienkamp’s scathing criticism comes on the heels of a study from Transport and Environment, a consortium of European environmental organizations that conducted a study comparing the energy consumption and environmental costs of conventional diesel trucks and their all-electric counterparts. Two diesel trucks were used for the study: one with an average consumption of 33 liters per 100 kilometers (around 7 mpg) and a more aerodynamic truck with a consumption of 22 liters per 100 km (10.69 mpg).

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The results of Transport and Environment’s study found that diesel trucks consume between 2.2-3.3 kilowatt-hours per kilometer, far above the consumption of an average electric truck, which requires 1.44 kWh per km. Electric vehicles that are designed from the ground up for maximum efficiency such as the Tesla Semi require just 1.15 kWh per km. The study’s authors concluded that overall, using all-electric trucks reduces energy consumption by a factor of 1.5-2.9.

All-electric trucks surpass diesel trucks in terms of efficiency as well. The study revealed that a diesel truck engine has an efficiency of 20-45% on long-haul routes and a measly 10% in city traffic. In comparison, electric trucks have a 90% efficiency for long routes and 75% in urban traffic. Lienkamp is not convinced, arguing that the source of the electricity used by vehicles like the Tesla Semi affects efficiency.

“The efficiency of the electricity mix used for the truck battery is important. If the energy comes from a gas-fired power plant, for example, the overall efficiency quickly drops back to 40%. If, on the other hand, 80% to 90% of the electricity comes from renewable sources, as planned in the EU for 2040, long-distance trucks would be attractive from an ecological point of view,” he said.

Tesla Semi hauling Tesla Model 3 and X. | Credit: Tesla

The authors of the study maintained that electric trucks are cheaper to repair and maintain simply because they have fewer moving parts. Even brakes will rarely need replacing, thanks to systems like regenerative braking. While these are compelling advantages, Lienkamp stated that “for distances of 500 kilometers and beyond, battery-powered trucks simply won’t make any economic sense until 2030,” adding “with electric vehicles, the cost of trying to reduce CO2 levels is simply too high.”

It should be noted that the Tesla Semi, at least in its upcoming iteration, is not designed to enter the long-haul market that is dominated by trucks that can go over 1,000 miles in one full tank. Rather, the Tesla Semi is designed to compete in short-range routes that range from 300-500 miles. From this perspective, it becomes difficult to argue against the Tesla Semi.

The Tesla Semi is a Class 8 truck, and with its four Model 3-derived electric motors, the all-electric long-hauler is capable of sprinting from 0-60 mph in just 5 seconds without a trailer. With a full load, the Semi can reach highway speeds in 20 seconds, far quicker than conventional diesel trucks. The Tesla Semi is currently undergoing real-world tests, in preparation for its production, which is expected to start either this year or sometime in 2020.

Tesla Semi, all-electric trucks get scathing criticism from auto tech expert


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Tesla slips on Q1 production and deliveries amid global growing pains, Model 3 remains market leader

Simon Alvarez

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Posted on April 3, 2019


Tesla has released its production and delivery figures for the first quarter of 2019, and closing out a quarter that clearly highlights the company’s growing pains amid its push for global expansion. In Q1 2019, Tesla produced a total of 77,100 vehicles, or down roughly 12% from the last quarter. Total deliveries declined to 63,000 vehicles, roughly 30% less than Q4 2018’s all-time-high of 90,700. Analysts were targeting 76,000 deliveries for the first quarter.

Tesla’s Q1 production numbers are comprised of 62,950 Model 3 vehicles, in line with the company’s guidance. Tesla also produced a total of 14,150 Model S and X, a pretty drastic drop from the more than 25,000 vehicles in Q4. Tesla did not provide commentary around the drop of Model S and X deliveries.

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By the end of the quarter, Tesla had 10,600 vehicles in transit to customers, which are expected to be delivered in early Q2 2019. Tesla stated that the company had delivered roughly half of the quarter’s deliveries in the last 10 days, largely due to the time it took to ship Model 3’s to Europe and China.

Despite the quarter falling below expectations, the company is still targeting to deliver 360,000 – 400,000 vehicles for the full year 2019. Tesla’s commitment to its original expectations would mean that the company has to deliver 99,000 – 112,300 vehicles for each of the following three quarters. The company stated that their net income would be negatively impacted by the lower than expected deliveries, but that they ended the quarter with “sufficient cash.”

You can read Tesla’s Q1 2019 delivery and production report in its entirety below.

 

Tesla Q1 2019 Vehicle Production & Deliveries

PALO ALTO, Calif., April 03, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — In the first quarter, we produced approximately 77,100 total vehicles, consisting of 62,950 Model 3 and 14,150 Model S and X.

Deliveries were approximately 63,000 vehicles, which was 110% more than the same quarter last year, but 31% less than last quarter. This included approximately 50,900 Model 3 and 12,100 Model S and X.

Due to a massive increase in deliveries in Europe and China, which at times exceeded 5x that of prior peak delivery levels, and many challenges encountered for the first time, we had only delivered half of the entire quarter’s numbers by March 21, ten days before end of quarter. This caused a large number of vehicle deliveries to shift to the second quarter. At the end of the first quarter, approximately 10,600 vehicles were in transit to customers globally.

Because of the lower than expected delivery volumes and several pricing adjustments, we expect Q1 net income to be negatively impacted. Even so, we ended the quarter with sufficient cash on hand.

In North America, Model 3 was yet again the best-selling mid-sized premium sedan, selling 60% more units than the runner up. Inventory of Model 3 vehicles in North America remains exceptionally low, reaching about two weeks of supply at the end of Q1, compared to the industry average of 2-3 months. 

Despite pull forward of demand from Q1 2019 into Q4 2018 due to the step down in the federal tax credit, US orders for Model 3 vehicles significantly outpaced what we were able to deliver in Q1. We reaffirm our prior guidance of 360,000 to 400,000 vehicle deliveries in 2019. 

Given that Tesla vehicle production currently occurs entirely from one factory in the San Francisco Bay Area, but must be delivered to customers all around the world, production could be significantly higher than deliveries, as it was this quarter, when production exceeded deliveries by 22%.

We’ve just begun the global expansion of Model 3, and we want to thank our employees for their hard work and our customers for supporting our mission. We are doing everything we can to deliver cars globally as quickly as possible and look forward to continuing to scale deliveries throughout the year.

***************

Our net income and cash flow results will be announced along with the rest of our financial performance when we announce Q1 earnings. Our delivery count should be viewed as slightly conservative, as we only count a car as delivered if it is transferred to the customer and all paperwork is correct. We count a produced but undelivered vehicle to be in transit if the related customer has placed an order or paid the full purchase price for such vehicle. Final numbers could vary by up to 0.5%. Tesla vehicle deliveries represent only one measure of the company’s financial performance and should not be relied on as an indicator of quarterly financial results, which depend on a variety of factors, including the cost of sales, foreign exchange movements and mix of directly leased vehicles.

Forward-Looking Statements

Certain statements herein, including statements regarding expected future vehicle deliveries and production and our expected financial results, are “forward-looking statements” that are subject to risks and uncertainties. These forward-looking statements are based on management’s current expectations. Various important factors could cause actual results to differ materially, including the risks identified in our SEC filings. Tesla disclaims any obligation to update this information.

Tesla slips on Q1 production and deliveries amid global growing pains, Model 3 remains market leader


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Tesla introduces no-confirmation Navigate on Autopilot

Simon Alvarez

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Posted on April 3, 2019


Tesla has announced the rollout of its most advanced driver-assist feature yet: no-confirmation Navigate on Autopilot. With the system in place, drivers could have their vehicles perform lane changes on their own without confirming the maneuver through the vehicle’s turn signal stalk.

In a blog post, Tesla noted that drivers have traveled more than 66 million miles since Navigate on Autopilot was released. Over this period, the driver-assist feature has successfully completed more than 9 million suggested lane changes. The electric car maker notes that the reception to Navigate on Autopilot has been positive so far, with owners stating that the feature makes trips easier and more enjoyable.

The improvements to Navigate on Autopilot are poised to give Tesla owners a better experience using the company’s driver-assist feature. Even at its current iteration, Navigate on Autopilot’s capability to perform on-ramp to off-ramp maneuvers is already hailed as an incredibly useful capability. With no-stalk confirmation now an option, trips done with Autopilot engaged will be even more convenient. 

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The rollout of no-confirmation Navigate on Autopilot is another indication that Tesla is conducting a serious push in the development of its Full Self-Driving features. Apart from Elon Musk’s hints that more Full Self-Driving features will be coming later this year, Tesla has also announced that it will be holding an Autonomy Investor Day event this coming April 19 at its Palo Alto headquarters. During the event, shareholders will have the chance to experience Autopilot and Full Self-Driving features that are yet to be released.

Below is Tesla’s blog post about no-confirmation Navigate on Autopilot.

Introducing a More Seamless Navigate on Autopilot

Since we first introduced Navigate on Autopilot last year, Tesla drivers have traveled more than 66 million miles using the feature, and more than 9 million suggested lane changes have been successfully executed with the feature in use. We’ve heard from our customers that it makes road trips and highway driving more relaxing, enjoyable and fun, and gives them an easy way to follow their car’s navigation guidance when traveling on an unfamiliar route.

Today, we’re beginning to roll out our latest version of Navigate on Autopilot for a more seamless active guidance experience. In this new version, drivers will now have the option to use Navigate on Autopilot without having to confirm lane changes via the turn stalk. Here’s how it works:

In the Autopilot settings menu, a driver can press the Customize Navigate on Autopilot button which will now display three additional settings – Enable at Start of Every Trip, Require Lane Change Confirmation, and Lane Change Notification. Through the Enable at Start of Every Trip setting, Navigate on Autopilot can be set to automatically turn on each time a driver enters a navigation route. Once enabled, anytime a driver is on a highway and uses Autopilot with a location plugged into the navigation bar, the feature will be on by default. If a driver selects ‘No’ to Require Lane Change Confirmation, lane changes will happen automatically, without requiring a driver to confirm them first. Drivers can elect to get notified about an upcoming lane change by receiving an audible chime as well as a default visual prompt. Additionally, all cars made after August 2017 will also have the option to have their steering wheel vibrate for the alert as well.

Each of these notifications are meant to provide drivers with the opportunity to check their surroundings and determine whether they want to cancel the lane change before it’s made. Cancellations can be made by moving the car’s turn signal or by pressing the lane change cancellation pop-up notification on the car’s touchscreen. This feature does not make a car autonomous, and lane changes will only be made when a driver’s hands are detected on the wheel. As has always been the case, until truly driverless cars are validated and approved by regulators, drivers are responsible for and must remain in control of their car at all times.

Through our internal testing and Early Access Program, more than half a million miles have already been driven with the lane change confirmation turned off. Our team consistently reviews data from instances when drivers took over while the feature has been in use, and has found that when used properly both versions of Navigate on Autopilot offer comparable levels of safety. We’ve also heard overwhelmingly from drivers in our Early Access Program that they like using the feature for road trips and during their daily commutes, and we’re excited to release the option to the rest of the Tesla family.

These new settings will be available to customers who have purchased Enhanced Autopilot or Full Self-Driving Capability. They will begin to roll out today via an over-the-air software update to customers in the U.S., and will be introduced in other markets in the future pending validation and regulatory approval.

Tesla introduces no-confirmation Navigate on Autopilot


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Tesla bear gets shot down after insisting that ‘competition’ is coming for TSLA

Simon Alvarez

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Posted on April 3, 2019


A Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) bear’s arguments about the impending arrival of competitors in the electric car market was boldly shut down in a recent segment on CNBC’s Squawk Box. During the exchange, veteran journalist Phil LeBeau aired what could only be described as a longtime sentiment from Tesla investors: After all those predictions, where are Tesla’s supposed competitors?

The Squawk Box segment featured Tasha Keeney of Ark Invest and Craig Irwin of Roth Capital Partners, each one representing the bull and bear side for TSLA stock. While Keeney reiterated ARK’s optimistic stance on Tesla and its potential in the full self-driving market, Irwin instead focused on what he alleged was the electric car maker’s disadvantage in battery technology. The Tesla bear insisted that Tesla is currently paying $240/kWh for its cells from Japan while Porsche and Volkswagen are paying $250/kWh. This was a point that Phil LeBeau directly addressed, citing the findings of Sam Jaffe from Cairn Energy Research, who estimated that Tesla has reached costs of around $116 per kWh for its battery cells.

The Roth Capital Partners analyst added that he is taking a bearish stance against Tesla now due to the incoming wave of competitors that are coming to the market. Irwin specifically pointed to the Porsche Taycan as one of these vehicles.

“It’s starting this year. That’s why I chose to initiate with a bearish perspective. Porsche is going to come on with the Taycan, you’ve got Kia, you’ve got the I-PACE… You got to look at the history, so the Cayenne, the first thing they said 10, then they said 20, then it became 40. So it ramped very very quickly. They set expectations low, make a lot of money on the front end, and ramp. Porsche, their business is making money. They’re not about, you know, fluffing numbers. So if they think they can sell 30,000 cars into the market over the next 18 months and make a great profit on it, they’ll do it. But they’re not gonna flood the market to a point you know, it compresses margins,” Irwin claimed.  

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Irwin’s thesis was immediately met by a rebuttal from LeBeau, who noted that the argument for Tesla competitors has been going on for a long time. The CNBC journalist argued that it is better for other carmakers to start showing (not just telling) how they can actually compete with Tesla by releasing a real, compelling electric vehicle.

“I think it poses a problem for Tesla from the standpoint of ‘Let’s finally see this vehicle.’ I honestly believe based on Tesla owners that I’ve talked with as well as those who track the company, we’re tired of hearing ‘the competitors are coming, the competitors are coming.’ Bring it out. Bring it out, and if Porsche’s Taycan is as impressive as the initial indications are, then it will be a threat to Tesla, but until then, this is a little bit like The Boy (Who) Cried Wolf. We hear it all the time. ‘There’s a wave of vehicles coming.’ Well, that wave of vehicles isn’t here yet. It was supposed to be here by 2019. It’s not here yet. When does it get here? If I’m a Tesla investor, I’m not too worried about this argument until we start to see these vehicles,” LeBeau retorted.

Phil LeBeau was actually being quite generous when he noted that the Porsche Taycan will be a threat to Tesla. Porsche is a niche carmaker, and it is a company that prioritizes the exclusivity of its vehicles. At most, the Taycan will eat into the Model S’ sales since they compete in the same segment. The German-made all-electric car from Porsche will not compete in the same mass-market segment as the Model 3, or the Model Y for that matter.

One thing that Tesla skeptics always seem to forget is that electric vehicles from other carmakers will not kill or overwhelm Tesla. Instead, they are vehicles that contribute to the mission of the electric car maker, which is to encourage the world to shift away from the internal combustion engine. Thus, every Taycan and I-PACE that is sold is not a lost sale for Tesla; it is a lost sale for gas and diesel-powered vehicles.

Watch the recent TSLA bull vs. bear debate in CNBC’s Squawk Box in the video below. 

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

Tesla bear gets shot down after insisting that ‘competition’ is coming for TSLA


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Tesla will start installing Model 3 production equipment in Gigafactory 3 this May: report

Simon Alvarez

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Posted on April 3, 2019


Tesla President of Automotive Jerome Guillen and Shanghai Deputy Mayor Wu Qing held a meeting on Tuesday, where they discussed the progress of Gigafactory 3’s buildout in the Shanghai Lingang Industrial Zone. The Tesla executive and Chinese official shared in-depth updates on the project, including an estimated timeframe for the installation of the facility’s vehicle production lines.

Local news agency Laoyaoba, which covered the meeting, pointed out that the installation of vehicle production equipment could start as early as May, when the initial stages of the facility are expected to be completed. This represents a notable accomplishment for both the electric car maker and its construction partner, considering that Gigafactory 3 is one of the most ambitious foreign-owned projects that have been attempted in China.

Based on this recent update, it appears that Tesla intends to start the installation of production equipment in Gigafactory 3 while other areas of the 864,885-square meter site are still under construction. This is a bold and risky move on Tesla’s part, but if the electric car maker pulls it off, such a strategy will likely help the company meet its goal of starting Model 3 production in Gigafactory 3 by the end of 2019.

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Guillen and Wu also discussed the recent milestones of the project. Construction work in Gigafactory 3 started back in January, and since then, the first phase of the buildout has been moving along very well. Pile foundation structures have been completed, and the steel structure construction of the factory has begun. Multiple sets of steel roof grids have also been completed.

Gigafactory 3 is under an incredibly ambitious timeline. During the groundbreaking ceremony of the facility, Elon Musk noted that he expects the factory to be completed around summer. This timeframe was mocked by Tesla’s skeptics, many of whom claimed that such a target was impossible. This was until Shanghai official Chen Mingbo stated that Gigafactory 3 was on track to be completed by May, a date even more ambitious than Musk’s estimate.

The work in Tesla’s Gigafactory 3 site in Shanghai does not stop for the night. (Photo: 烏瓦/YouTube)

Part of the reason behind Gigafactory 3’s rapid progress is the support that Tesla enjoys from the Chinese government. Tesla’s presence in China is beneficial to the country, which is aggressively pushing for the adoption of electric vehicles. In a statement to Xinhua News, Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the China Passenger Car Association, noted that Tesla’s China production will have a “catfish effect” in the country’s auto industry, pushing domestic carmakers to expedite and improve their own electric vehicles to compete with the Silicon Valley-based electric car maker.

China’s support for Tesla was evident during Musk’s visit to the country. When Musk met with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang in Beijing, the CEO was received at the Tower of Violet Light, a place that is usually reserved for dignitaries. Li also proved receptive to Musk’s ambitious ideas, even offering the CEO a “Chinese Green Card” so that he can pursue his vision in the country freely.

Tesla will start installing Model 3 production equipment in Gigafactory 3 this May: report


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Tesla to showcase future Autopilot features in Autonomy Investor Day

Simon Alvarez

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Posted on April 3, 2019


Tesla has announced that it will be holding an Autonomy Investor Day on the morning of April 19 at its headquarters in Palo Alto, CA. The event will see the electric car maker discuss the roadmap for its full self-driving features, which will be introduced through over-the-air updates.

The event will provide investors with a deep dive into the company’s full self-driving strategy, and it will include updates from several of Tesla’s key executives that are actively involved in the development of autonomous software and hardware. Among these are CEO Elon Musk, VP of Engineering Stuart Bowers, VP of Hardware Engineering Pete Bannon, and Sr. Director of AI Andrej Karpathy.

Perhaps most interesting is that attendees of the event will be able to experience these full-self driving and Autopilot improvements firsthand. Test drives will be given to investors in the event, and the vehicles that would be used will be equipped with features and functionalities that are still in development. This means that some of Autopilot and Full Self-Driving’s never-before-seen features will likely make a debut on the event.

Similar to the recent unveiling of the Model Y SUV, Tesla’s Autonomy Investor Day will be webcast. Tesla is yet to announce where the livestream will be available, though the company has stated that additional details will be released in the near future.

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The Autonomy Investor Day could be considered as one of Tesla’s most serious moves to date in terms of its full self-driving initiatives. Tesla has been fairly conservative with the rollout of its upcoming autonomous driving capabilities lately, with the company focusing more on improvements to existing features like Navigate on Autopilot and Summon, both of which are now part of the company’s Full Self-Driving suite. Elon Musk has hinted at upcoming FSD capabilities as well, such as the ability to recognize traffic lights and stop signs, as well as automatic driving in city streets.

Tesla’s full self-driving efforts are mostly eclipsed today by the work of companies like Waymo and GM Cruise, both of which are immediately aiming for Level 5 autonomous driving. In a recent study, Navigant Research even listed Tesla as the second-worst company currently pursuing autonomous driving tech, ranking the company just above Apple, which is ranked last. Amidst these sentiments from skeptics, Tesla’s  Autonomy Investor Day seems poised to prove the company’s critics wrong yet again.

Read Tesla’s full announcement for the upcoming investor event below.

PALO ALTO, Calif., April 03, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Tesla is making significant progress in the development of its autonomous driving software and hardware, including our FSD computer, which is currently in production and which will enable full-self driving via future over-the-air software updates. With a number of very exciting developments coming in the weeks and months ahead, Tesla will host investors on the morning of April 19th at our headquarters in Palo Alto to provide a deep dive into our self-driving technology and road map. 

Investors will be able to take test-drives to experience our Autopilot software first-hand, including features and functionality that are under active development. Investors will also hear directly from Elon Musk, as well as VP of Engineering, Stuart Bowers, VP of Hardware Engineering, Pete Bannon, and Sr. Director of AI, Andrej Karpathy. 

The event will be webcast. Additional details forthcoming.

Tesla to showcase future Autopilot features in Autonomy Investor Day


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