Popular car rental platform Turo has revealed that electric vehicles are beginning to become incredibly popular among its users. Leading this influx of EVs is Tesla’s entire lineup of vehicles, the Model S, Model 3, and Model X; all three of which have made it to Turo’s list of most popular cars on its platform.
The growth of electric vehicles in Turo has been notable over the past years. In a statement to Ars Technica, Turo noted that the supply of electric cars grew by 1.5 times the rate of hybrids and internal combustion vehicles in 2017 and 1.6 times in 2018. Demand for electric cars also grew 1.4 times the rate of hybrids and conventional cars in 2017 and 1.5 times in 2018.
The growth in both supply and demand for EVs in Turo runs parallel to the increase in the number of Teslas available for rent on the platform. According to the company, there were only 67 Teslas listed in 2014, but by April 2019, there were over 6,000 on the site. Last year, the Tesla Model S ultimately became the 6th most popular car on its platform based on gross revenue. The Tesla Model X and Tesla Model 3 were listed as the 10th and 11th most popular vehicle for 2018 as well.
Turo CEO Andre Haddad, who personally owns a Model S, Model 3, and Model X, was impressed with the rise of Tesla’s electric cars in the car rental platform. “It’s fascinating to see how popular EVs have become over the last year. The Model 3 only showed up last spring, then started to take off in the summer as more people got their cars. And in Q4 2018, the Model 3 had overtaken the Model X. Analytically, we realize that EVs continue to be more expensive to acquire than an internal combustion engined vehicle, so the economic reality for sharing is more valid. Secondly, the cost of running an EV is a lot lower, so you can earn more per mile as an EV host,” he said.
Haddad further noted that electric car rentals serve two types of people: those who want easy access to an EV and those contemplating an electric vehicle purchase. “There are people who already drive EVs at home and are traveling to a location where they need a car and can get an EV more easily on Turo than they can anywhere else. We’re uniquely positioned compared to the conventional rental car guys in that regard. The second segment are people considering buying an EV and making the switch, and who use Turo to have an extended test drive over a weekend or week. They can try it on their commute or frequent use cases to see if fits with their lifestyle. I’d estimate that half my guests are in category one; the other half are category two,” he said.
While only eight years old, Turo has become a disruptor of the car rental industry, with the company estimated to have around 4 million users and 170,000 available vehicles for rent. The company has been expanding its operations in areas beyond the United States such as the Canadian provinces of Alberta, Ontario, and Quebec. The service is also available in Germany and in the United Kingdom. As Tesla continues its Model 3 push into the international markets, the number of electric cars in Turo’s platform could very well see more prominent increases in the near future.
Tesla’s Model S,3,X lineup makes it to Turo’s list of most popular cars
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Elon Musk did not mince his words when he was asked about LiDAR during Tesla’s recently-held Autonomy Day, an event that featured a deep dive into the company’s full self-driving strategies and initiatives. Ever the bold CEO, Musk noted that LiDAR is unnecessary for vehicles to achieve autonomous driving capabilities.
“LiDAR is a fool’s errand, and anyone who relies on LiDAR is doomed. It’s like having expensive appendices. You’ll see,” Musk said.
Sr. Director of AI Andrej Karpathy elaborated on Elon Musk’s point during his presentation on Tesla’s neural network, stating that Tesla Vision and artificial intelligence are more than enough to perform actions that LiDAR can do. Describing his point, Karpathy lightly joked that the attendees of the event only used their biological neural networks to get to Autonomy Day’s venue without any issues.
“You all used your own neural network in your brains to get here. You didn’t shoot lasers from your eyes to drive,” Karpathy lightly said.
LiDAR is used primarily by most key players in the autonomous driving market. Waymo and GM Cruise, the top two companies pursuing the technology according to research firm Navigant (the firm also lists Tesla as the second-worst company in terms of full self-driving), rely heavily on LiDAR for their autonomous vehicles’ operations. The technology is seeing a lot of support as well, with a Reuters analysis pointing to more than $1 billion in corporate and private investment being plowed into some 50 LiDAR startups in the past three years.
Nevertheless, Tesla is not the only company that is opting out of LiDAR for autonomous driving. Early this month, full self-driving startup Wayve showcased an impressive autonomous driving demonstration using a modified Renault Twizy. Similar to Tesla, Wayve accomplished its feat without using LiDAR. In a statement to Engadget, the self-driving startup noted that its full self-driving technology was made possible by using cameras and teaching AI to drive like a human being.
It should be noted that while Elon Musk has not minced words when it comes to his opinions about LiDAR, he is not completely against the technology. Musk described how SpaceX’s Dragon capsule uses LiDAR because it makes sense in that scenario. But when it comes to everyday driving, Musk was clear on his stance, even predicting that Tesla’s competitors in the full self-driving field will likely abandon LiDAR in due time. “They’re gonna dump LiDAR, mark my words. That’s my prediction. LiDAR in cars is stupid,” Musk said.
Tesla is yet to roll out the full capabilities of its Full Self-Driving suite to its fleet, though Musk has stated that he expects the system to be “feature complete” by the end of the year. Industry leaders such as Waymo are pretty much on the same boat, with most of the companies’ autonomous vehicles still requiring safety drivers as they operate in tightly geofenced areas. Considering Musk’s timeline for the rollout of Tesla’s full self-driving features, and taking into account the potential delays on its rollout, there is a good chance that the LiDAR debate might not be settled for some time to come.
Tesla’s Autonomy Day highlights Elon Musk’s vision for a full self-driving future without LiDAR
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Tesla’s next-generation Roadster uses a fingerprint swipe in lieu of a handle to open its doors, as demonstrated in a video captured by an attendee of Tesla’s Autonomy Day event. Hamid Shojaee revealed that a finger swipe down the very bottom of the B pillar of the car opens the Roadster door. Three horizontal LEDs were also seen blinking to acknowledge the swipe command prior to the release of the door latch.
Further details about the door feature were not provided in the video, but given the level of tech already present in the Roadster, it’s plausible the locking mechanism could be configured to rely on fingerprint data for validation rather than Bluetooth connection or key fob as used in the Model S, Model X, and Model 3. Owners with smartphones already equipped with biometric data readers might be able to sync their devices’ security features as an option if not already built into the native Tesla app. Alternatively, the swipe function could merely replace the door handles to maximize airflow around the vehicle and reduce the coefficient of drag as much as possible.
Along with the finger swipe feature, the Roadster video gives a quick tour of the car’s interior. The vehicle’s small but ergonomic steering wheel sits alone and centered in front of the driver’s seat, and no other distractions along the dash are seen aside from the vertically positioned touchscreen in the center console. A quick glimpse of the back seats is also given, showing off the surprising amount of room available
Not limited to onboard rocket thrusters as part of Tesla’s SpaceX Package, the next-generation Roadster will likely have several more unique features included that will be revealed as it gets closer to its anticipated 2020 first delivery date. The specs touted already are impressive in their own right, 0-60 mph in 1.9 seconds, 250+ mph top speed, and 620 miles of battery range, all for the bang-for-your-buck base price of $200,000. Tesla recently teased the supercar’s acceleration in a video tweet, stating the Roadster could do “Zero to sixty faster than you can read this caption.”
The Investor Autonomy Day presentation touted Tesla’s Full Self-Driving computer as being the best in the world, and the next-generation Roadster will have its own specialized feature enabled by the autonomous software. In a tweet response inquiring about the Roadster’s Autopilot capabilities, CEO Elon Musk described the feature: “Definitely. Will also have Augmented Mode that will massively enhance human driving ability. Like a flying metal suit, but in car form …,” he said, referencing Marvel’s Iron Man and Tony Stark. The new Roadster is also said to have an optional SpaceX package which will enable it to hover similar to the DeLorean of Back to the Future fame.
Tesla’s next-gen Roadster seen using a finger swipe feature as a door handle
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Tesla has released a video demonstration of its Full Self-Driving suite in action. The short video clip follows a Model 3 as it autonomously drove from one destination to another, following stop signs, recognizing traffic lights, and driving on city streets in the process.
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving strategy is centered around custom hardware that the company has developed and a large neural network that continues to get more proficient as it gains more real-world driving data. The recognition capabilities of Tesla’s neural network was on display in the recently shared FSD demo video, as the Model 3 could be seen reacting appropriately once it encountered objects like stop signs and traffic lights.
The ride chronicled in the recently shared demonstration involved zero manual interventions from the passenger on the driver’s seat. Nevertheless, it should still be noted that operators of Tesla’s autonomous vehicles will still need to be observant of the road even when Full Self-Driving becomes “feature complete” by the end of this year, as mentioned by Elon Musk during an appearance at ARK Invest’s For Your Innovation podcast.
All Tesla cars being built today have the hardware necessary for full self-driving:
8 vision cameras, 12 ultrasonic sensors, radar, and this custom-designed beast of a Full Self-Driving Computer pic.twitter.com/jYMAhB5Ooc
“I think we will be feature complete — full self-driving — this year. I would say I am certain of that. That is not a question mark. However, people sometimes will extrapolate that to mean now it works with 100 percent certainty, requires no observation, perfectly. This is not the case,” he said.
Tesla conducted test drives of its Full Self-Driving features after the presentations of Musk, VP of Hardware Engineering Pete Bannon, Sr. Director of AI Andrej Karpathy, and VP of Engineering Stuart Bowers, though the company reportedly did not allow videos to be taken during the test rides themselves. Fortunately, Axosoft founder Hamid Shojaee described his FSD experience in a series of tweets. Shojaee noted that the demo ride of the fully autonomous drive was really impressive. “Parking lot to city streets, to freeway, to city streets back to parking lot, ~10 mile drive, 100% autonomous. Tesla is light years ahead,” he wrote.
No NDA. I did a demo ride, fully autonomous drive. It was really really good. Parking lot to city streets, to freeway, to city streets back to parking lot, ~10 mile drive, 100% autonomous. Tesla is light years ahead.
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving suite is a key component of Elon Musk’s Master Plan, which calls for the deployment of the Tesla Network’s autonomous Robotaxis that commuters could summon using an app. This will allow Tesla to become a key player in the ride-sharing market, which is currently dominated by Uber and Lyft. Musk noted that Tesla’s Robotaxis will cost around $0.18 per mile, undercutting Uber and Lyft’s $2-$3 cost per mile. Considering the lifespan of Tesla’s battery packs and drivetrain, the Musk expects each Robotaxi to make a gross profit of $0.65 per mile assuming that 50% were empty miles, and an annual mileage of 90,000 miles, resulting in one vehicle earning about $30,000 per year.
Watch Tesla’s video demonstration of its Full Self-Driving suite in action in the video below.
Tesla posts Full Self-Driving demo video with stop sign, traffic light recognition
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NVIDIA, a prominent and highly successful leader in computer chip design, says that Tesla has raised the bar in autonomous driving software, and other car makers will have to deliver similar performance if they want to compete in the long-term future of the auto industry, according to a recent NVIDIA company blog.
“It’s financially insane to buy anything other than a Tesla,” CEO Elon Musk stated during the company’s Autonomy Day event. He then compared the purchase of any other car as equivalent to buying a horse for one’s transportation purposes. NVIDIA, for its part, agrees with Musk and Tesla’s sentiments about the future of self-driving and the need for powerful computers to push its progress.
“Self-driving cars—which are key to new levels of safety, efficiency, and convenience—are the future of the industry. And they require massive amounts of computing performance… This is the way forward. Every other automaker will need to deliver this level of performance,” the chip maker wrote.
The type of autonomous driving technology Tesla is pushing is predicted to be the inevitable standard, and the company’s lead in the arena will likely increase even further as more of their vehicles take to the road. “By end of this quarter, about half a million Teslas will have full self-driving hardware (pending computer swap) & we will make another half million FSD cars by mid next year,” Musk tweeted, emphasizing this point and echoing what he’d explained the day prior.
Exactly. By end of this quarter, about half a million Teslas will have full self-driving hardware (pending computer swap) & we will make another half million FSD cars by mid next year.
Tesla’s recent Autonomy Day presentation drew comparisons between the all-electric car maker’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) computer chip and those produced by NVIDIA, the only computer processing unit maker delivering performance in line with Tesla’s. NVIDIA currently has two self-driving chips in the works: the Xavier SoC (system on a chip) for assisted driving AutoPilot features, and the DRIVE AGX Pegasus computer for full self-driving. The comparisons in Tesla’s presentation were directed at the Xavier in a single-chip configuration.
The technical performance specifications required to run powerful artificial intelligence (AI) neural networks (NN) for autonomous driving require operations performed per second to be measured in the trillions – abbreviated as TOPS (tera operations per second). Tesla’s FSD computer chip can perform at a rate of 72 TOPS (x2 chips in the computer for 144 TOPS total), and the Xavier does 30 TOPS (mistakenly claimed to be 21 TOPS at Tesla’s event, per NVIDIA’s blog).
NVIDIA also expressed in the blog piece its opinion that the match between FSD and Xavier wasn’t quite an apples-to-apples comparison, given the purposes of the two chips. The chip designer prefers its DRIVE AGX Pegasus for the line-up, a computer intended for fully autonomous driving and capable of 320 TOPS. Tesla is assumingly aware of this product and obviously acknowledges the high level of technology developed by NVIDIA given that Hardware 2.5, the computer currently running Tesla’s Autopilot features, was made by the company.
A Tesla with driver features “deleted” under the Tesla Network. | Image: Tesla
There are additional specifications such as power consumption that further differentiate FSD from NVIDIA’s products with a more similar purpose to Tesla’s latest computer. Thus, a different product match may not have mattered towards the overall point being made in the presentation. Either way, a more important distinction between the two companies is the current status of their technologies.
Tesla’s chip was crowned as “objectively the best in the world” by Musk, and this looks to be true, given the fact that all Tesla Model S, 3, and X vehicles being produced now have the hardware installed and will add to the already accruing real world self-driving data the company’s cars provide. NVIDIA has partnered with other car manufacturers to develop its products, but they are not incorporated in production vehicles the way Tesla’s FSD has been yet.
The performance Tesla has achieved in its FSD computer is impressive, and that was and continues to be the point. “[Autonomy] is basically our entire expense structure,” Musk told an investor inquiring about where the California-based company was incurring the most cost. Tesla is hedging its fiscal future on the success of autonomous driving in the marketplace, and the company is doing so with bullish energy driven by its famous top executive.
Musk expects Tesla’s Full Self-Driving software to be complete by the end of this year and fully operational by the second quarter of next year.
NVIDIA says Tesla raised the bar for self-driving tech, car makers must deliver
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Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) dropped on Tuesday morning as Elon Musk’s vision for the Tesla Network’s Robotaxi service was met by skepticism from Wall Street. Musk was quite confident in the recently-held Autonomy Day event, stating that Tesla could start deploying its autonomous ride-hailing vehicles by 2020. Wall Street did not seem to be impressed,
Cowen’s analyst Jeffrey Osborne expressed his reservations on Elon Musk’s ideas in a note on Tuesday, describing Tesla’s plans for its Robotaxi service as “half-baked.” The analyst also expressed his skepticism of Tesla’s capability to compete with established companies such as NVIDIA for hardware and Google for software. “We see a significant amount of technology and execution risk in the shift in strategy from competing in just electrification to Tesla also beating Nvidia in hardware, Google in software, and building a better ride-hailing service than current ride-hailing leaders. The Tesla Network Robotaxi plans seemed half-baked, with the company appearing to either not have answers to or not even considered pretty basic question on the pricing, insurance liability, or regulatory and legal requirements,” Osborne wrote.
SunTrust analyst Willian Stein was equally skeptical, though he did state that Tesla’s Robotaxi business could be financially compelling if the electric car maker successfully rolls out the service. “We are concurrently skeptical and hopeful about TSLA’s claims. If TSLA executes to plan, implications across semis/components are meaningful: positive for analog/mixed-signal vendors, mixed for digital vendors, negative for LiDAR vendors. Investors should recognize that, if the company achieves its autonomous driving goals, combining this with its already-achieved EV technology conspire to establish a ride-hailing service that could be quite financially compelling to both the car owner and the rider,” he stated.
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas admitted that Tesla’s presentation of its full self-driving technology was impressive, though he also noted that Elon Musk’s idea of completely removing the driver (signified by the removal of the steering wheel and pedals on vehicles) could take a very long time. “Tesla’s autonomy investor presentations conveyed impressive technological leadership but, in our view, left big questions around time-to-market and did not change our views on the impediments to removing the human driver in a commercial service at scale. Attention returns to a challenging 1Q. More data to back up safety claims is needed. We still think removing the safety driver will take many years (if not decades) to achieve at high scale,” he wrote.
Not everyone was highly skeptical of Elon Musk’s vision for a Robotaxi service. Loup Ventures managing partner Gene Munster noted that Tesla’s non-LiDAR approach to full self-driving could very well give Tesla a headstart over other companies pursuing autonomous driving technology. “We are more comfortable with Tesla’s camera-based (non-LiDAR) approach to autonomy. If correct, this approach could actually be preferred (safer, more reliable, efficient, better design) and afford Tesla a several-years headstart as other players unwind LiDAR from their solution,” he wrote in a blog post after attending Tesla’s Autonomy Day.
According to Munster, Elon Musk also estimated that Tesla could operate up to 10 million Robotaxis in about 10 years. With an estimated gross profit of $30,000 per car annually (and taking Elon Musk’s estimates at face value), Tesla could be looking at over $300 billion in gross profit in 10 years. That’s a huge opportunity for Tesla, and it could very well make the electric car maker as one of the most valuable companies in the world. Nevertheless, the Loup Ventures partner noted that “given investor optimism on the autonomy theme, we believe this is the right time for Tesla to raise money (debt or equity) to de-risk the story with additional working capital.”
As of writing, Tesla shares are down 0.28% at $262.01 per share.
Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.
Tesla (TSLA) dips as Elon Musk’s Robotaxi service meets skepticism from Wall St.
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Six weeks after the spacecraft completed its orbital launch debut, SpaceX’s first flight-proven Crew Dragon capsule suffered a catastrophic explosion seconds before a planned SuperDraco test fire.
In the last nine years, SpaceX has successfully built, tested, launched, and recovered Cargo and Crew Dragons 18 times, including five instances of Cargo Dragon capsule reuse, all with minor or no issues. The April 20th event is the first time in the known history of SpaceX’s orbital spacecraft program that a vehicle – in this case, the first completed and flight-proven Crew Dragon capsule – has suffered a total failure. Regardless of the accident investigation’s ultimate conclusions, the road ahead of Crew Dragon’s first crewed test flight has become far more arduous.
ARTICLE: SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft suffers an anomaly during static fire testing at Cape Canaveral –https://t.co/ZWkBhqGs5F
According to information acquired by NASASpaceflight.com, SpaceX was in the middle of a series of static fire tests meant to verify that the flight-proven capsule was in good working order after Crew Dragon’s inaugural mission to orbit. The spacecraft was to be tested near SpaceX’s Cape Canaveral Landing Zone facilities, where the company has a small but dedicated space for Dragon tests. Crew Dragon C201’s testing began earlier on Saturday, successfully firing up its smaller Draco maneuvering thrusters. This transitioned into a planned SuperDraco ignition, what would have been the first such integrated test fire for capsule C201.
SpaceX planned to rapidly reuse Crew Dragon C201 for an upcoming in-flight abort (IFA) test, in which the spacecraft would be required to successfully escape from Falcon 9 at the point of peak aerodynamic stress (Max Q). Based on a leaked video of the failure, one or several faults in Crew Dragon’s design and/or build led to a near-instantaneous explosion that destroyed the spacecraft. Sound in the background seems to indicate that the explosion occurred several seconds before the planned SuperDraco ignition, a major concern given their pressure-fed design.
As pressure-fed rocket engines specifically designed to be the basis of a launch escape system, Crew Dragon and its SuperDraco thrusters are meant to be ready to ignite at a millisecond’s notice once they are armed in a flight-ready configuration. It’s safe to say that ten seconds away from a specifically planned ignition is one of those moments, although there is a limited chance that SpaceX’s static fire procedures intentionally diverge from an abort-triggered ignition. Regardless, the fact that Crew Dragon was destroyed before the ignition of its SuperDracos is not an encouraging sign.
Instead of a problem with its high-performance abort thrusters, it can be tentatively concluded that Crew Dragon’s explosion originated in its fuel tanks or propellant plumbing. Such an immediate and energetic explosion points more towards a total failure of propellant lines or valves (or their avionics), while another – and potentially far more concerning – cause could be one of Crew Dragon’s pressure vessels. In a space as enclosed as a Dragon capsule, the rupture of a pressure vessel could trigger a chain reaction of pressure vessel failures, freeing both oxidizer (NTO) and fuel (MMH). Known as hypergolic propellant, NTO and MMH ignite immediately (and violently so) when mixed.
It’s quite possible that the accident investigation to follow will be SpaceX’s most difficult and trying yet. Regardless of the specific cause, the footage of Crew Dragon C201’s demise does not support any positive conclusions about the fate of astronauts or passengers, had they been aboard during the violent explosion. Seemingly triggered in some way by the very system meant to safely extricate Crew Dragon and its astronauts from a failing Falcon 9 rocket, major work will need to be done to prove to NASA that the spacecraft is safe. Sadly, Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft – funded in parallel with Crew Dragon under NASA’s Commercial Crew Program – suffered a far less severe but no less significant failure during a static fire test of its own abort thrusters. Boeing was forced to remove the impacted hardware from its flight plans to extensively clean, repair, and rework the service module.
NASA has been notified about the results of the @SpaceX Static Fire Test and the anomaly that occurred during the final test. We will work closely to ensure we safely move forward with our Commercial Crew Program. pic.twitter.com/yE2J5yGzA7
NASA is now faced with the fact that both of the spacecraft it supported with CCP have exhibited major failures related to their launch escape systems. Crew Dragon’s catastrophic explosion comes as a particularly extreme surprise given how extensively SpaceX has already tested the SuperDraco engines and plumbing, as well as the successful completion of the spacecraft’s launch debut. In the process of DM-1 launch preparations, Crew Dragon likely spent a minimum of 80 minutes with its SuperDraco thrusters and propellant systems primed and ready to abort at any second, apparently without a single mildly-concerning issue.
Godspeed to SpaceX and NASA as they enter into this challenging and unplanned failure investigation.
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SpaceX’s Crew Dragon suffers catastrophic explosion during static fire test
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Greetings from a high-speed train in eastern China! I’ve been spending some time with the team at NIO to better understand the company’s vision for the worlds’ largest auto market: China.
It hasn’t been long since I roamed the halls of the Shanghai Auto Show, where I had a chance to meet the NIO team and was invited to take a tour of their exclusive members-only club. Little did I realize, that journey would take me to witness their battery swapping station in action and a visit to the company’s electric vehicle factory.
In fact, I’m writing this from the bullet train back to Shanghai following the factory visit, currently speeding along at 315 km/h (195 mph).
If you haven’t heard of NIO, you aren’t alone. The company only serves the Chinese market and only began deliveries last June. Since then, the company has delivered over 15,000 ES8 vehicles and is starting deliveries of their second vehicle, the ES6, in a few months. While the company previewed an upcoming vehicle at the show, they were far more focused on expanding and improving its service offerings. The company went public on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE: NIO) last fall, raising one billion dollars from investors.
[Christian Prenzler/Teslarati]
Much like Tesla, NIO has been building out charging stations across mainland China. But, that’s where the similarities end. The company is going a few steps further, adding valet charging services, mobile charging vans, and battery swapping stations. The company offers subscriptions and per-use plans for its power services, allowing the company to start building a meaningful services business. NIO just expanded the services to all EV owners, including Tesla owners.
As for today’s activities; we spent the day in Hefei, where NIO builds its vehicles in a joint-venture factory with JAC Motors. The 2.5M SQFT facility is quite similar to Tesla’s Fremont facility, with 512 massive skylights and white painted floors, ceilings, and walls. The facility has a current capacity of 100,000 vehicles per year, but could be easily expanded to 150,000 and beyond with some modifications. After an in-depth discussion with Feng Shen, VP of Quality, we toured the facility with the general manager, Victor. Both executives carried over experience setting up a manufacturing facility with Volvo. Behind the factory is NIO’s test track, where we put the ES8 through the paces with hard braking, quick accelerations, and high speed turns. While a comprehensive report is forthcoming,the vehicle comfortable, quick, and showed some impressive dynamics on the test track.
[Christian Prenzler/Teslarati]
So what’s my overall impression of NIO and their strategy to capture the Chinese market? It’s different, it’s real, and it’s extremely well thought out. The Chinese market is massively different than anywhere else in the world, and NIO seems to be hyper-focused on meeting the unique needs of the Chinese luxury consumer.
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Tesla is holding its Autonomy Day today, with the company inviting investors to its headquarters in Palo Alto, CA to get a deep dive into the company’s full self-driving initiatives. During the event, Tesla will be sharing its full self-driving roadmap to attendees. Several key executives involved in the company’s autonomous driving project such as CEO Elon Musk, VP of Engineering Stuart Bowers, VP of Hardware Engineering Pete Bannon, and Sr. Director of AI Andrej Karpathy will be addressing the event’s attendees as well.
Investors will also have the opportunity to experience test rides in vehicles that are equipped with Autopilot and Full Self-Driving features that are yet to be released. With Autonomy Day, Tesla has the potential to establish itself as a key player in the autonomous vehicle race, a competition that is currently being dominated by big players such as Waymo and GM Cruise. Elon Musk’s stance on Full Self-Driving being attainable using a system that consists primarily of cameras and artificial intelligence will also be put to the test.
The following are live updates from Tesla’s Autonomy Day. Fellow Teslarati reporter Dacia Ferris and I will be updating this article in real-time, so please keep refreshing the page to view the latest updates on this story.
Dacia 14:20 PT: Aaaand that’s a wrap! So good to hear from Elon’s brain after the trip down sheep meme world of late. Thanks for following along everyone!
Simon: 14:16 PT: Thanks for joining us for today’s live blog, everyone! Till the next time, and super appreciate your continued support for Teslarati!
Dacia 14:15 PT: IMPORTANT –> Tesla will be liable if there is an accident while using the Tesla Network, per Elon.
Dacia 14:14 PT: “[Autonomy] is basically our entire expense structure,” Elon responds to a question on how much Tesla is spending on FSD development.
Dacia 14:10 PT: A human driver is like a camera on a gimbal…it can’t see everywhere at the same time. A Tesla can see all things at all times. The things it focuses on, however, start to become very human like all the time. It turns and focuses on things in a way similar to how humans operate, Elon explains.
Dacia 14:08 PT: The neural net is eating into the software base over time… A neural net is like a cruise missile…you wouldn’t use that to swat a fly, Elon responds to a question about the types of computing happening inside the FSD computer.
Dacia 14:06 PT: Low-density areas will probably have customers owning their Tesla vehicles, only occasionally renting them vs. higher density areas with higher rates of rental, Elon predicts how customers will use the Tesla Network.
Dacia 14:05 PT: “If you have a massive amount of data saying that autonomy is safe…they’ll listen to it. They may take a long time to digest…but they’ll come to the right conclusion,” Elon comments on the regulatory process for FSD.
Dacia 14:03 PT: Tesla pickup truck mentioned!! Nothing dropped, though. Elon just says it will be revealed later this year.
Dacia 14:02 PT: “It’s financially insane to buy anything other than a Tesla [today]…it’s like buying a horse,” Elon says confidently. He’s very certain about this, given the tech advances and advantages Tesla’s vehicles have.
Dacia 13:59 PT: “We’re going to bias our sales strategy towards the smaller battery packs,” Elon says, the point being to have a higher volume of cars for the Tesla Network.
Dacia 13:58 PT: False and foolish = HD maps and LiDAR – the final word from Musk on two no-go’s for FSD cars. Mark his words.
Dacia 13:52 PT: Elon Musk thinks a rental car fleet instead of using the Tesla Network would be unweildy. “Try it,” he challenges an investor challenging him on that notion.
Dacia 13:50 PT: Any robo taxi that isn’t electric will not be competitive, Elon predicts. He also said that the cars will not need human supervision at all eventually, plugging themselves in, etc.
Dacia 13:49 PT: Robo taxis will be in extremely high demand for a very long time. The auto industry is very slow to adapt…there are new cars on the road right now that are still not as good as the original Model S, Elon expresses his confidence in the Tesla Network’s financial success.
Dacia 13:45 PT: Both Model S and Model 3 cars will used as robo taxis, Elon confirms. THIS IS BIG: The current battery pack is good for about 300-500,000 miles. The new battery pack that will probably go into production for next year will operate for **1 million miles** with minimal maintenance, he announces, specifying that the improvements are driven by the Tesla Network development. As parts become less and less important (steering wheels, pedals, etc.), they will delete them from the cars.
Dacia 13:39 PT: “You’ll be able to add or subtract your car to the fleet from your phone,” Elon says, teasing how the Robotaxi Tesla Network will operate.” You could have your car operate 1/3 of the week or longer…The fundamental utility of your vehicle will increase by a factor of 5.”
Dacia 13:37 PT: “The whole thing was designed to be a Robotaxi since October 2016,” Elon says referring to the FSD intentions for Tesla. “We said we’re gonna do the Robotaxi, and we’re gonna do the robo taxi…it just might not be on time, he jokes, referring to Elon Standard Time. Today he definitely seems determined to express his…determination.
Simon 13:36 PT: Elon Musk reiterates the Tesla Master Plan. He also jokingly notes that while he’s usually late, he and the Tesla team gets things done. Musk then notes that the Robotaxi service (Tesla Network) will likely be rolled out on 2020.
Dacia 13:30 PT: Nine million successful lane changes have been logged in Tesla cars, per Bowers. They are now seeing 100,000 automated lane changes per day. That’s a lot for the NN to learn from! No simulator necessary.
Simon 13:29 PT: Stuart describes the development cycle of Tesla’s Full Self-Driving computer, and how it blends in perfectly with the company’s neural networks.
Simon 13:21 PT: Stuart Bowers takes the stage. Notes that Navigate on Autopilot has already accumulated 70 million miles so far.
Simon 13:19 PT: Elon notes that in terms of regulators, platooning for trucks could get approval first. This sounds a lot like the Tesla Semi’s Convoy Mode, which allows the vehicles to draft semi-autonomously with each other. Perhaps the Semi will enter the market with Convoy Mode ready to use?
Dacia 13:18 PT: We expect to have FSD ready by second quarter of next year for no-hands on steering wheel, no looking out the window use, Elon predicts regarding the Autopilot timeline. FSD will be “feature complete” this year.
Dacia 13:13 PT: Elon on GPS: We don’t want to use GPS as primary navigation. It’s fine for tips and tricks, places you know and drive in confidently…counterintuitive shortcuts. But the GPS overlay data should only be helpful but never primary. If it’s ever primary, that’s a problem.
Dacia 13:11 PT: We have 425,000 cars with this hardware…providing data…that’s a massive compression of real world data, Elon touts. “I suppose there could be another use for the hardware,” Elon speculates. “Maybe some sort of AWS angle.” He’s referring to Amazon’s cloud computing, or something similar, perhaps.
Dacia 13:07 PT: “You only need radar in the forward direction because you’re going really fast,” Elon concludes.
Dacia 13:06 PT: “LiDAR is lame,” Elon replies to a comment about his ‘slam’ on the tech during the presentation. The man is clear about his feelings. “We’re gonna dump LiDAR, mark my words. That’s my prediction.” He then talks about SpaceX’s use of their own LiDAR because it makes sense. LiDAR in cars is “stupid”, he says…in case you were wondering how he **really** feels.
Simon 13:00 PT: Elon lightly mentions a mode beyond Mad Max once more. Looks like an “LA Traffic Mode” might really be released in the future.
Dacia 12:56 PT: If I were to summarize my entire talk in one slide it would be this, Andrej concludes. And that includes incidents of flying cars (the rightmost image).
Dacia 12:51 PT: After only 6 seconds of NN analysis, the 3D reproduction of the scene recorded is amazing. Depth perception is just..wow. LiDAR is used to annotate what vision is seeing.
Dacia 12:49 PT: You all used your own neural network in your brains to get here…you didn’t shoot lasers from your eyes to drive, Andrej says, explaining why NN is better for FSD than LiDAR.
Dacia 12:47 PT: “We’re gonna turn on Augmented Vision…it’s kind of scary, actually,” Elon tells the audience, referring to the test drives to come after the presentation.
Tesla’s Neural Networks are centered around these three concepts. (Credit: Tesla)
Dacia 12:45 PT: “Everyone is training the network all the time, is what it comes down to,” Elon recaps the explanation of how the NN gets its data and how that data is used.
Dacia 12:44 PT: We ask the fleet to send us data focused on a problem to be solved, and that’s used to train the neural network further, Andrej explains. He previously mentioned “tunnel” problems as an example, here is using cut ins from cars coming from other lanes. The false positives and false negatives are then analyzed, used for retraining.
Simon 12:42 PT: Andrej describes how Tesla trains its Neural Network through vehicles in Shadow Mode. Based on the AI Director’s presentation, the improvements in Tesla’s capability to predict cut-ins on the road were the result of fleet learning.
Dacia 12:38 PT: “Using simulators, it’s like grading your own homework,” Elon doubles down against using simulators vs. real world driving. “It would be a monumental achievement of human capability,” he says, referring to creating a simulation that actually modeled reality.
Dacia 12:37 PT: On simulations, Tesla uses them extensively, including for training data. But there really is no substitute for real data. The modeling isn’t the same…the real world throws some crazy stuff at you. Snow, trees, construction sites, plastic bags flying in the wind, etc., all interact differently and give different data, Andrej continues teaching the investor audience how NN’s work.
Simon 12:32 PT – Neural Networks like data. Lots of it. More data just makes them work better. There really is no substitute for physical data. Andrej shows a comparison of its simulation vs its real-world road data.
Dacia 12:30 PT: Neural network training seems a lot like mathematical opinion making.
Simon 12:30 PT: Andrej describes the work being done by Tesla to train its neural networks. The amount of detail in terms of labeling data is insane.
Dacia 12:28 PT: “It really is the Matrix,” Elon comments as Andrej explains how computers “see” things and learn from them.
Simon 12:27 PT: Andrej Karpathy takes the stage. A video of Tesla Vision is shown on stage. Particularly interesting is how high-definition the video in the sample was. Andrej proceeds to explain how neural networks are similar to the human brain.
Dacia 12:26 PT: Andrej Karpathy, Sr. Director of AI at Tesla, his team is resposible for training the neural networks. Elon thinks he may be the best “computer vision guy” in the world. (Elon’s IQ would probably know these things.)
Dacia 12:32 PT: People effectively program Google with their queries… We have quite a good simulation, but it doesn’t fully capture the real world. If it did, it would be proof that WE were living in a simulation, Elon responds to critique about real world miles needed for FSD.
Simon 12:22 PT: Elon on simulated miles. “Simulations don’t capture the real world,” Elon said.
Dacia 12:21 PT: That’s a hard problem. Anyone who can solve (hack) it, I’d hire in a second, Elon emphasis the difficulty in completely encrypting Tesla’s chip software. It’s already a “hard chip to crack.” PWN2OWN – the 3 year live stream?
Dacia 12:17 PT: The neural processor design is custom by Tesla, not external IP, Bannon confirms for an investor. *** Fabricating is being done by Samsung in Austin, TX. ***
Dacia 12:16 PT: The next generation chip will be about 3X better than the current one…about 2 years away, Elon answers a question regarding what’s next for FSD computer, after saying he doesn’t want to talk much about it. The man is always looking forward to the next milestone, as impossible as it seems.
Dacia 12:14 PT: Power consumption for FSD is 250 watts per mile, per Elon. It also depends on the type of driving, per Elon.
Simon 12:13 PT: Elon Musk speaks his mind about the use of LiDAR for full self-driving once more. “LiDAR is a fool’s errand, and anyone who relies on LiDAR is doomed. It’s like having expensive appendices. You’ll see,” he said.
Dacia 12:10 PT: (over Nvidia) Elon mentions “Xavier” power requirements are higher and power requirement is 7x and costs 7x. You can do neural networks that are 7X more powerful on Tesla’s chip vs. NVIDIA’s, Bannon explains to an investor in the audience.
Dacia 12:07 PT: “It seems improbable. How could it be that Tesla, who has never designed a chip before, would design the best chip in the world? But that is objectively what has occurred,” Elon touts.”All Tesla’s being produced right now have this chip,” he doubles down. “All Tesla cars right now have everything necessary for FSD. All you have to do is update the software.”
The next-gen Tesla Roadster is present in the event. (Credit: Tesla)
Simon 12:05 PT: Elon Musk notes that Tesla switched over to switched over Model S and X about a month ago, Model 3 about 10 days ago. Every car today has this hardware installed.
Teslarati Audience 12:00 PT: “Like i am 100% sure all the finance guys in the audience understand like less than 1% of this… I study CS and i understand maybe 2-5% of this…” @meamZ_MZ
Simon 12:02 PT: Pete Bannon’s in-depth presentation of Hardware 3 and Tesla’s custom solutions shows just how much of a tech company Tesla really is. I’ve yet to see a carmaker present anything similar to date.
Dacia 12:01 PT: You need 1 TB per second of bandwith per engine to operate FSD, 2 on the chip, Bannon continues. Again highlighting how amazing this computer is.
Dacia 11:56 PT: FSD only operates software that’s cryptographically signed by Tesla – it will NOT operate software that isn’t Tesla’s, Bannon says. Wow. I wonder if that will be part of a PWN2OWN or Bug Bounty program?
Dacia 11:55 PT: 50 trillion operations per second was the goal performance for HW3, 72 trillion operations per second achieved. Amazing. Makes me think of SpaceX’s engines always overachieving the performance goals.
Dacia 11:53 PT: The size of the CPU is in the “sweet spot” between cell phone CPU size and high-end CPU size, Bannon says as a picture of HW3’s processor is on screen.
Tesla’s neural network processor. (Credit: Tesla)
Dacia 11:52 PT: “The general principal of this is that any part of this could fail and the car keeps driving,” Elon clarifies the importance of the redundancy built into the FSD computer. A picture of the full computer is on the screen – it fits in the top part of the glove box. So small, so powerful.
Dacia 11:45 PT: “Hopefully you’ll all still be awake by then,” Pete Bannon, system architect for FSD, jokes prior to beginning his presentation. I should have grabbed coffee. Three years from start of FSD group to deployment of HW3 in all 3 Tesla cars – that’s amazing.
Tesla’s Hardware 3 computer. (Credit: Tesla)
Simon 11:43 PT: Elon Musk has taken the stage and gives the floor to Pete Bannon. Pete describes the timeline of Tesla’s Full Self-Driving chip. Retrofitting employee cars started December. “It’s the fastest systems development program I have ever seen,” Bannon said.
Simon 11:35 PT: During the third quarter earnings call, Andrej mentioned something about a large Neural Network that Tesla had already trained, but was not able to deploy due to computational constraints. Personally excited to see this neural net in action when paired with Hardware 3.
Simon 11:32 PT: So just to review, we’re expecting to see a number of pertinent updates on Tesla’s Full Self-Driving initiatives today. Personally looking forward to Stuart Bowers, Pete Bannon, and Andrej Karpathy’s segments in the event.
Simon 11:32 PT: This song will effectively be stuck in my head for the rest of the day. I guarantee it.
Dacia 11:31 PT: “New Rule” for live stream events in future: More than one soundtrack for film reel.
Dacia 11:30 PT: Okay, half hour late now. Well…it did say Autonomy “Day”.
Dacia 11:26 PT: I love that the Tesla Semi is in this video roll. Would be even MORE awesome if the Semi was part of the Autopilot demo.
Simon 11:24 PT: We’re approaching 25 mins late. Looks like Autonomy Day will start in Elon Time. Not sure if that’s a good sign or a bad sign.
Dacia 11:14 PT: Seeing complaints on Twitter about the video, now. Some are amusing, some not so much.
Simon 11:10 PT: We’re at 13 mins late now. But the new footage sure is sweet. The Roadster shots are particularly amazing.
Dacia 11:10 PT: Well, the livestream is late…but this video footage is amazing. We haven’t seen most of these shots before. There are some Autopilot features intertwined – nice touch!
Tesla showcases Autopilot, Full Self-Driving tech in Autonomy Day (Live Blog)
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Tesla’s Autonomy Day is starting in a few hours, and the anticipation among the electric car community is reaching a fever pitch. Elon Musk has promoted Autonomy Day over the past week, even lightly hinting that the event will “free investors from the tyranny of having to drive their own car.”
Tesla’s noted in its initial announcement that it will be providing investors a deep dive into its full self-driving initiatives. Several key Tesla executives involved in the development of the company’s full self-driving technology are expected to address investors at the event, including VP of Engineering Stuart Bowers, VP of Hardware Engineering Pete Bannon, and Sr. Director of AI Andrej Karpathy. More importantly, test drives on vehicles that are equipped with yet-to-be-released Autopilot and Full Self-Driving features are also expected to be conducted.
Apart from this information, Tesla has managed to keep the specifics of its upcoming autonomy event secret. With this in mind, here are some developments and features that we expect Tesla to showcase in Autonomy Day.
On April 22, Investor Autonomy Day, Tesla will free investors from the tyranny of having to drive their own car
When Tesla brought back Full Self-Driving as an add-on for its electric cars, the company placed Navigate on Autopilot and Summon, two features that were previously part of Enhanced Autopilot, as part of the FSD suite. Tesla has since improved the features, with Enhanced Summon allowing vehicles to navigate a parking lot to find their owners, and Navigate on Autopilot being capable of changing lanes without any turn stalk confirmation. These features are still being improved by Tesla, and it would not be surprising if the company decides to showcase improved capabilities of Summon and NoA to investors on Autonomy Day.
Traffic Light/Stop Sign response and automatic city streets driving
A look at Tesla’s order page for the Model S, Model 3, and Model X shows that Full Self-Driving has two capabilities marked for release “later this year.” These are “Recognize and respond to traffic lights and stop signs” and “Automatic driving on city streets.” Both these features require Tesla’s neural net to be trained enough to recognize visual input at a level that is quite close to that of a human driver. Tesla appears to be taking steps towards this goal, as indicated by findings from hacker-enthusiast greentheonly, who found what appears to be stop line detection features in 2019.4. Tesla’s recent Autosteer Stop Light Warning, which prompts drivers to take over the vehicle’s controls if a red light is detected, also appears to be a step towards automatic city driving.
Back in the third quarter earnings call, Director of AI Andrej Karpathy noted that while Tesla had already trained larger, more advanced neural networks that work very well, the company is unable to deploy it to the fleet due to the limitations of its hardware. “We are currently at a place where we’ve trained large Neural Networks that work very well, but we are not able to deploy them to the fleet due to computational constraints,” he said. These limitations are expected to be rendered null and void by Tesla’s Hardware 3, which is also expected to be discussed on Autonomy Day.
New mobile app features
At the core of the Tesla experience is its mobile app. It allows customers to view the status of their vehicles, and as shown in videos from members of Tesla’s early access program, it is also a central part of Summon’s more advanced features. A Teslarati reader who is part of the early access program recently sent new screenshots of updates in the mobile app (3.8.3), such as Roadside Assistance as well, which allows owners to call the company for aid in the event of a flat tire, or similar emergencies.
Tesla Network test drives
Tesla’s endgame with its full self-driving feature is the Tesla Network, a ride-hailing service that utilizes a fleet of autonomous vehicles. Back in the Q3 2018 earnings call, Musk noted the Tesla Network will be competing with giants such as Uber and Lyft. The company made its intentions for the Tesla Network even clearer when it released leasing options for the Model 3. In its announcement, Tesla stated that customers cannot purchase their leased vehicles after their lease period is over since the company will be using the electric cars for the Tesla Network. With Tesla expected to showcase its full self-driving features in Autonomy Day, it will not be surprising if the company provides a teaser of what it’s like to experience the Tesla Network firsthand.
An emphasis on human vigilance
While Autonomy Day will be focused on the company’s full self-driving features, Tesla will likely continue to emphasize that its vehicles and their driver-assist features still require constant attention on the road in the near future. This is something that Elon Musk has teased previously at an appearance in ARK Invest’s For Your Innovation podcast when he described how Tesla’s full self-driving features will be feature-complete. “I think we will be feature complete — full self-driving — this year. I would say I am certain of that. That is not a question mark. However, people sometimes will extrapolate that to mean now it works with 100 percent certainty, requires no observation, perfectly. This is not the case,” Musk said. Thus, for the following years, at least, Tesla will likely focus on Level 4 autonomous solutions, which are capable of operating a vehicle without human input but are equipped with pedals and controls for manual overrides just the same.
Tesla’s self-driving future to take center stage at Autonomy Day: What to expect
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A Tesla with driver features “deleted” under the Tesla Network. | Image: Tesla
