LNG: TESLARATI

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is set to release its Q1 2019 financial results after markets close today, April 24, 2019. Following the release of its first-quarter financial results, the electric car maker is scheduled to hold its earnings call, which will begin at 2:30 p.m. Pacific Time (5:30 p.m. Eastern Time).

Expectations are quite tempered for Tesla this quarter, following the company’s less-than-expected production and delivery numbers in Q1. After a record number of production and deliveries in the fourth quarter of 2018, Tesla’s electric car deliveries fell by around 30%, while total production numbers fell by around 12%. TSLA stock has been weighed down by these results since their release in early April, with the company off around 20% this year, compared to a roughly 16% rise for the broader S&P 500.

Earnings and Revenue

When Tesla launched the $35,000 Model 3, Elon Musk mentioned that he does not expect the electric car maker to be profitable in Q1 2019. Wall St. is currently looking for a quarterly loss of $1.84 per share based on standard accounting methods, according to FactSet. A non-GAAP loss of $0.99 per share on revenue of about $5.46 billion is also expected.

Analysts tracked by FactSet are showing some range on their predictions. Four analysts still expect Tesla to turn a profit in the first quarter, while 16 are expecting the electric car maker to report a loss of up to $2.60 per share. It should be noted that in Q1 2018, Tesla reported a GAAP loss of $4.19 per share and a non-GAAP loss of $3.06 per share, on revenue of $3.41 billion. In the fourth quarter of 2018, the electric car maker reported a GAAP profit of $0.78 per share and a non-GAAP profit of $1.93 per share, on revenue of about $7.23 billion.

Updates for ongoing projects

Tesla is currently involved in a number of high-profile initiatives, from the buildout of Gigafactory 3 in China to the rollout of its Full Self-Driving suite. Questions from retail investors polled and aggregated by investor communication service Say reveals a notable degree of interest on projects such as the Tesla Semi, the Tesla Pickup Truck, and initiatives like the Maxwell acquisition. Some of these inquiries might be addressed by the electric car maker, similar to the Q4 2018 earnings call.

Elon Musk noted during the Model Y reveal that 2019 will be the year of the Solar Roof, Tesla’s solar shingles that are yet to be fully ramped. Tesla Energy rarely incites comparable media attention compared to the company’s electric car business. Thus, updates on high-profile and large-scale deployments of its Powerpack system, as well as the ramp of its Powerwall 2 home battery units, would likely be discussed in Tesla’s Q1 2019 earnings call.

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

NVIDIA, a prominent and highly successful leader in computer chip design, says that Tesla has raised the bar in autonomous driving software, and other car makers will have to deliver similar performance if they want to compete in the long-term future of the auto industry, according to a recent NVIDIA company blog.

“It’s financially insane to buy anything other than a Tesla,” CEO Elon Musk stated during the company’s Autonomy Day event. He then compared the purchase of any other car as equivalent to buying a horse for one’s transportation purposes. NVIDIA, for its part, agrees with Musk and Tesla’s sentiments about the future of self-driving and the need for powerful computers to push its progress.

“Self-driving cars—which are key to new levels of safety, efficiency, and convenience—are the future of the industry. And they require massive amounts of computing performance… This is the way forward. Every other automaker will need to deliver this level of performance,” the chip maker wrote.

The type of autonomous driving technology Tesla is pushing is predicted to be the inevitable standard, and the company’s lead in the arena will likely increase even further as more of their vehicles take to the road. “By end of this quarter, about half a million Teslas will have full self-driving hardware (pending computer swap) & we will make another half million FSD cars by mid next year,” Musk tweeted, emphasizing this point and echoing what he’d explained the day prior.

Exactly. By end of this quarter, about half a million Teslas will have full self-driving hardware (pending computer swap) & we will make another half million FSD cars by mid next year.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 23, 2019

Tesla’s recent Autonomy Day presentation drew comparisons between the all-electric car maker’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) computer chip and those produced by NVIDIA, the only computer processing unit maker delivering performance in line with Tesla’s. NVIDIA currently has two self-driving chips in the works: the Xavier SoC (system on a chip) for assisted driving AutoPilot features, and the DRIVE AGX Pegasus computer for full self-driving. The comparisons in Tesla’s presentation were directed at the Xavier in a single-chip configuration.

The technical performance specifications required to run powerful artificial intelligence (AI) neural networks (NN) for autonomous driving require operations performed per second to be measured in the trillions – abbreviated as TOPS (tera operations per second). Tesla’s FSD computer chip can perform at a rate of 72 TOPS (x2 chips in the computer for 144 TOPS total), and the Xavier does 30 TOPS (mistakenly claimed to be 21 TOPS at Tesla’s event, per NVIDIA’s blog).

NVIDIA also expressed in the blog piece its opinion that the match between FSD and Xavier wasn’t quite an apples-to-apples comparison, given the purposes of the two chips. The chip designer prefers its DRIVE AGX Pegasus for the line-up, a computer intended for fully autonomous driving and capable of 320 TOPS. Tesla is assumingly aware of this product and obviously acknowledges the high level of technology developed by NVIDIA given that Hardware 2.5, the computer currently running Tesla’s Autopilot features, was made by the company.

A Tesla with driver features “deleted” under the Tesla Network. | Image: Tesla

There are additional specifications such as power consumption that further differentiate FSD from NVIDIA’s products with a more similar purpose to Tesla’s latest computer. Thus, a different product match may not have mattered towards the overall point being made in the presentation. Either way, a more important distinction between the two companies is the current status of their technologies.

Tesla’s chip was crowned as “objectively the best in the world” by Musk, and this looks to be true, given the fact that all Tesla Model S, 3, and X vehicles being produced now have the hardware installed and will add to the already accruing real world self-driving data the company’s cars provide. NVIDIA has partnered with other car manufacturers to develop its products, but they are not incorporated in production vehicles the way Tesla’s FSD has been yet.

The performance Tesla has achieved in its FSD computer is impressive, and that was and continues to be the point. “[Autonomy] is basically our entire expense structure,” Musk told an investor inquiring about where the California-based company was incurring the most cost. Tesla is hedging its fiscal future on the success of autonomous driving in the marketplace, and the company is doing so with bullish energy driven by its famous top executive.

Musk expects Tesla’s Full Self-Driving software to be complete by the end of this year and fully operational by the second quarter of next year.

Tesla’s next-generation Roadster uses a fingerprint swipe in lieu of a handle to open its doors, as demonstrated in a video captured by an attendee of Tesla’s Autonomy Day event. Hamid Shojaee revealed that a finger swipe down the very bottom of the B pillar of the car opens the Roadster door. Three horizontal LEDs were also seen blinking to acknowledge the swipe command prior to the release of the door latch.

Further details about the door feature were not provided in the video, but given the level of tech already present in the Roadster, it’s plausible the locking mechanism could be configured to rely on fingerprint data for validation rather than Bluetooth connection or key fob as used in the Model S, Model X, and Model 3. Owners with smartphones already equipped with biometric data readers might be able to sync their devices’ security features as an option if not already built into the native Tesla app. Alternatively, the swipe function could merely replace the door handles to maximize airflow around the vehicle and reduce the coefficient of drag as much as possible.

A little video of the @Tesla roadster. #AutonomyDay pic.twitter.com/kp09GjBWN4

— Hamid Shojaee (@hamids) April 22, 2019

Along with the finger swipe feature, the Roadster video gives a quick tour of the car’s interior. The vehicle’s small but ergonomic steering wheel sits alone and centered in front of the driver’s seat, and no other distractions along the dash are seen aside from the vertically positioned touchscreen in the center console. A quick glimpse of the back seats is also given, showing off the surprising amount of room available

Not limited to onboard rocket thrusters as part of Tesla’s SpaceX Package, the next-generation Roadster will likely have several more unique features included that will be revealed as it gets closer to its anticipated 2020 first delivery date. The specs touted already are impressive in their own right, 0-60 mph in 1.9 seconds, 250+ mph top speed, and 620 miles of battery range, all for the bang-for-your-buck base price of $200,000. Tesla recently teased the supercar’s acceleration in a video tweet, stating the Roadster could do “Zero to sixty faster than you can read this caption.”

The Investor Autonomy Day presentation touted Tesla’s Full Self-Driving computer as being the best in the world, and the next-generation Roadster will have its own specialized feature enabled by the autonomous software. In a tweet response inquiring about the Roadster’s Autopilot capabilities, CEO Elon Musk described the feature: “Definitely. Will also have Augmented Mode that will massively enhance human driving ability. Like a flying metal suit, but in car form …,” he said, referencing Marvel’s Iron Man and Tony Stark. The new Roadster is also said to have an optional SpaceX package which will enable it to hover similar to the DeLorean of Back to the Future fame.

Six weeks after the spacecraft completed its orbital launch debut, SpaceX’s first flight-proven Crew Dragon capsule suffered a catastrophic explosion seconds before a planned SuperDraco test fire.

In the last nine years, SpaceX has successfully built, tested, launched, and recovered Cargo and Crew Dragons 18 times, including five instances of Cargo Dragon capsule reuse, all with minor or no issues. The April 20th event is the first time in the known history of SpaceX’s orbital spacecraft program that a vehicle – in this case, the first completed and flight-proven Crew Dragon capsule – has suffered a total failure. Regardless of the accident investigation’s ultimate conclusions, the road ahead of Crew Dragon’s first crewed test flight has become far more arduous.

According to information acquired by NASASpaceflight.com, SpaceX was in the middle of a series of static fire tests meant to verify that the flight-proven capsule was in good working order after Crew Dragon’s inaugural mission to orbit. The spacecraft was to be tested near SpaceX’s Cape Canaveral Landing Zone facilities, where the company has a small but dedicated space for Dragon tests. Crew Dragon C201’s testing began earlier on Saturday, successfully firing up its smaller Draco maneuvering thrusters. This transitioned into a planned SuperDraco ignition, what would have been the first such integrated test fire for capsule C201.

SpaceX planned to rapidly reuse Crew Dragon C201 for an upcoming in-flight abort (IFA) test, in which the spacecraft would be required to successfully escape from Falcon 9 at the point of peak aerodynamic stress (Max Q). Based on a leaked video of the failure, one or several faults in Crew Dragon’s design and/or build led to a near-instantaneous explosion that destroyed the spacecraft. Sound in the background seems to indicate that the explosion occurred several seconds before the planned SuperDraco ignition, a major concern given their pressure-fed design.

As pressure-fed rocket engines specifically designed to be the basis of a launch escape system, Crew Dragon and its SuperDraco thrusters are meant to be ready to ignite at a millisecond’s notice once they are armed in a flight-ready configuration. It’s safe to say that ten seconds away from a specifically planned ignition is one of those moments, although there is a limited chance that SpaceX’s static fire procedures intentionally diverge from an abort-triggered ignition. Regardless, the fact that Crew Dragon was destroyed before the ignition of its SuperDracos is not an encouraging sign.

Instead of a problem with its high-performance abort thrusters, it can be tentatively concluded that Crew Dragon’s explosion originated in its fuel tanks or propellant plumbing. Such an immediate and energetic explosion points more towards a total failure of propellant lines or valves (or their avionics), while another – and potentially far more concerning – cause could be one of Crew Dragon’s pressure vessels. In a space as enclosed as a Dragon capsule, the rupture of a pressure vessel could trigger a chain reaction of pressure vessel failures, freeing both oxidizer (NTO) and fuel (MMH). Known as hypergolic propellant, NTO and MMH ignite immediately (and violently so) when mixed.

It’s quite possible that the accident investigation to follow will be SpaceX’s most difficult and trying yet. Regardless of the specific cause, the footage of Crew Dragon C201’s demise does not support any positive conclusions about the fate of astronauts or passengers, had they been aboard during the violent explosion. Seemingly triggered in some way by the very system meant to safely extricate Crew Dragon and its astronauts from a failing Falcon 9 rocket, major work will need to be done to prove to NASA that the spacecraft is safe. Sadly, Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft – funded in parallel with Crew Dragon under NASA’s Commercial Crew Program – suffered a far less severe but no less significant failure during a static fire test of its own abort thrusters. Boeing was forced to remove the impacted hardware from its flight plans to extensively clean, repair, and rework the service module.

NASA is now faced with the fact that both of the spacecraft it supported with CCP have exhibited major failures related to their launch escape systems. Crew Dragon’s catastrophic explosion comes as a particularly extreme surprise given how extensively SpaceX has already tested the SuperDraco engines and plumbing, as well as the successful completion of the spacecraft’s launch debut. In the process of DM-1 launch preparations, Crew Dragon likely spent a minimum of 80 minutes with its SuperDraco thrusters and propellant systems primed and ready to abort at any second, apparently without a single mildly-concerning issue.

Godspeed to SpaceX and NASA as they enter into this challenging and unplanned failure investigation.

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