LNG: TESLARATI

SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell has revealed that the company’s first dedicated Starlink launch is scheduled for May 15th and will involve “dozens” of satellites.

Corroborated by several sources, the actual number of Starlink satellites that will be aboard Falcon 9 is hard to believe given that it is a satellite constellation’s first quasi-operational launch. Suffice it to say, if all spacecraft reach orbit in good health, SpaceX will easily become the operator and owner of one of the top five largest commercial satellite constellations in the world with a single launch. Such an unprecedentedly ambitious first step suggests that the perceived practicality of SpaceX’s Starlink ambitions may need to be entirely reframed going forward.

From 0 to 100

In short, it’s hard to exaggerate just how much of a surprise it is to hear that SpaceX’s very first Starlink launch – aside from two prototypes launched in Feb. 2018 – will attempt to place “dozens” of satellites in orbit. Competitor OneWeb, for example, conducted its first launch in February 2019, placing just five satellites in orbit relative to planned future launches with 20-30. To go from 2(ish) to “dozens” in a single step will break all sorts of industry standards/traditions.

Despite the ~15 months that have passed since that first launch, SpaceX’s Starlink team has really only spent the last 6-9 months in a phase of serious mass-production buildup. As of now, the company has no dedicated satellite factory – space in Hawthorne, CA is far too constrained. Instead, the design, production, and assembly of Starlink satellites is being done in 3-4 separate buildings located throughout the Seattle/Redmond area.

SpaceX’s Starlink team has managed to transition almost silently from research and development to serious mass-production (i.e. dozens of satellites) in the space of about half a year. The dozens of spacecraft scheduled to launch on SpaceX’s first dedicated mission – likely weighing 200-300 kg (440-660 lb) each – have also managed to travel from Seattle to Cape Canaveral in the last few months and may now be just a few days away from fairing encapsulation.

To some extent, the first flight-ready batch of “dozens” of satellites are still partial prototypes, likely equivalent to the second round of flight testing mentioned by CEO Elon Musk last year. This group of spacecraft will have no inter-satellite laser (optical) links, a feature that would transform an orbiting Starlink constellation into a vast mesh network. According to FCC filings, the first 75 satellites will be of the partial-prototype variety, followed soon after by the first spacecraft with a more or less finalized design and a full complement of hardware.

If this is just step one…

Meanwhile, Shotwell – speaking at the Satellite 2019 conference – suggested that SpaceX could launch anywhere from two to six dedicated Starlink missions this year, depending on the performance of the first batch. Put a slightly different way, take the “dozens” of satellites she hinted at, multiply that number by 6, and you’ve arrived at the number of spacecraft she believes SpaceX is theoretically capable of producing and delivering in the next 7.5 months.

“Dozens” implies no less than two dozen or a bare minimum of 144 satellites potentially built and launched before the year is out. However, combined with a target orbit of 450 km (280 mi) and a planned drone ship booster recovery more than 620 km (385 mi) downrange, 36, 48, or 60 satellites seem far more likely. Tintin A/B – extremely rough, testbed-like prototypes – were about 400 kg (~900 lb) each.

As an example, SpaceX’s eight Iridium NEXT satellite launches had payloads of more than 10,000 kg (22,000 lb), were launched to an orbit around 630 km (390 mi), and required a upper stage coast and second burn on-orbit. Further, Iridium missions didn’t get the efficiency benefit that Starlink will by launching east along the Earth’s rotational axis. Despite all that, Falcon 9 Block 5 boosters were still able to land less than 250 km (155 mi) downrange after Iridium launches. Crew Dragon’s recent launch debut saw Falcon 9 place the >13,000 kg (28,700 lb) payload into a 200 km (125 mi) orbit with a drone ship landing less than 500 km (310 mi) downrange, much of which was margin to satisfy safety requirements.

Starlink-1’s target orbit is thus a third lower than Iridium NEXT, while its drone ship will be stationed more than 2.5 times further downrange. Combined, SpaceX’s first Starlink payload will likely weigh significantly more than ~13,000 kg and may end up being the heaviest payload the company has yet to launch.

Assuming a payload mass of ~14,000 kg (~31,000 lb) at launch, a worst-case scenario with ~400 kg spacecraft and a 2000 kg dispenser would translate to 30 Starlink satellites. Cut their mass to 300 kg and the dispenser to 1000 kg and that rises to ~45 satellites. Drop even further to 200 kg apiece and a single recoverable Falcon 9 launch could place >60 satellites in orbit.

Of course, this entirely ignores the elephant in the room: the usable volume of SpaceX’s standard Falcon payload fairing. It’s unclear how SpaceX would fit 24 – let alone 60 – high-performance satellites into said fairing without severely constraining their design and capabilities. SpaceX’s solution to this problem will effectively remain unanswered until launch, assuming the company is willing to provide some sort of press release and/or offer a live view of spacecraft deployment on their webcast. Given the cutthroat nature of competition with the likes of OneWeb, Telesat, LeoSat, and others, this is not guaranteed.

At the end of the day, such a major leap into action bodes extremely well for SpaceX’s ability to realize its ambitious Starlink constellation, and do so fast. For those on Earth without reliable internet access or any access at all, the faster Starlink – and competing constellations, for that matter – can be realized, the sooner all of humanity can enjoy the many benefits connectivity can bring. For those that sit under the thumb of monopolistic conglomerates like Comcast and Time Warner Cable, relief will be no less welcome.

Stay tuned as we get closer to Starlink-1’s May 15th launch date. Up next is a static fire of the mission’s Falcon 9 rocket, perhaps just two or three days from now.

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Tesla is concerned about a global shortage of minerals required for production of electric vehicle batteries, with the electric car maker recently warning major industry players and US government representatives of an upcoming mineral supply challenge due to underinvestment in mining sources, according to a report published by Reuters. Representatives in the US government who are both aware and focused on the shortage issue have introduced legislation in the Senate to address delays rooted in the federal approval process. The bill, titled the “American Mineral Security Act”, was presented at the same closed-door conference where Tesla expressed its concerns last week.

“Our bill takes steps that are long overdue to reverse our damaging foreign dependence and position ourselves to compete in growth industries like electric vehicles and energy storage,” Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), the main sponsor of the bill, said in a statement about the legislation. Senators Joe Manchin (D-W. Virginia), Martha McSally (R-Arizona), and Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) are co-sponsors.

The bill specifically requires that a list of critical minerals be compiled at least every three years along with a resource assessment of those minerals nationwide. This data is then used to target and implement reforms in the federal regulatory process aimed at reducing government-driven delays in the mining approval process.

As a major consumer of minerals required for the production of electric vehicle (EV) batteries and other vehicle parts, Tesla will need stable access to mined resources like copper, nickel, and lithium in the long term. The expansion of the EV market will continue to increase demand for these resources. Other tech players such as Amazon and Alphabet also need the same resources for the production of their digital assistants and home connectivity devices.

Tesla’s global supply manager for battery metals, Sarah Maryssael, spoke with representatives present at the industry conference about Tesla’s concerns regarding the company’s mineral needs. Maryssael noted that a “huge potential” existed for mining partnerships in Australia and the US to help with the supply issue, possibly citing a preliminary deal between the two countries for a joint effort towards research and development in the area.

The global demand for copper, in particular, is expected to increase from the current 38,000 tons per day to 1.5 million tons by 2030, and this estimate has driven major copper production companies to expand its mining activities in the US and Indonesia. Electric cars use twice as much copper as gas-powered cars, making the EV industry particularly sensitive to its market availability.

Tesla’s needs from the mineral industry go well beyond copper. The company’s Nevada-based Gigafactory 1 facility is expected to hit 255 GWh annual production of batteries once complete. At that rate, the current global supply of lithium will need to increase nearly three times over to meet the demand. Unlike copper, though, investments in lithium production are ongoing, and Tesla’s ramping need for the mineral is driving significant expansion in part of the mineral market.

A concept artist has showcased a cool and creative take on Tesla’s pickup truck, which is expected to be revealed sometime later this year. Bold and unapologetically futuristic, the Tesla Truck render is a pretty good representation of Elon Musk’s upcoming “cyberpunk” vehicle.

When Elon Musk discussed Tesla’s upcoming pickup truck to veteran tech journalist Kara Swisher last November, he noted that the vehicle will be so futuristic, it won’t look out of place in the iconic sci-fi Blade Runner franchise. Musk even mentioned that if the vehicle does not sell well because it’s too cyberpunk, then the electric car maker will release a more “conventional” truck.

Concept artist Emre Husmen’s take on the Tesla Pickup Truck definitely qualifies as one of the more futuristic takes on the upcoming vehicle. The artist’s design features generous ground clearance and an incredibly aggressive stance. Futuristic headlights and taillights also provide accents to the vehicle’s Model X-inspired front fascia. Similar to Rivian’s acclaimed R1T pickup, Husman’s take on the Tesla Truck features a double cab design and a rather short bed.

The design of Tesla’s Pickup Truck is still pretty much under wraps. During the unveiling of the Tesla Semi, Elon Musk mentioned that the vehicle could be derived from the all-electric long-hauler. Musk even showed a couple of artist’s renditions of the Semi-based pickup truck that have proven to be quite polarizing. Tesla provided another teaser of the vehicle during the Model Y event as well, but it only featured a cryptic, angular image that incited numerous interpretations from the electric car community.

Regardless of its final design, the Tesla Truck will likely provide ample competition for the juggernauts of the pickup market like the Ford F-150 and the Dodge RAM. This is partly due to the vehicle’s specs, which include dual motors and a pretty insane towing capacity of 300,000 pounds. The vehicle is also expected to be large enough to seat six people, and include practical features such as a 240-volt connection for heavy-duty tools and an air compressor to run other equipment.

The pickup truck market could very well be the next big frontier for electric vehicles, especially in the United States. Kicking off the segment is the critically acclaimed Rivian R1T, which was unveiled to much enthusiasm late last year and expected to be released in 2020. Auto veteran Ford has also announced that it will be developing an electric version of its best-selling F-150 truck, which, if successful, could end up converting a significant number of traditional pickup truck drivers to electric transportation.

Rivian has been on a promotional whirlwind since the company came out of the shadows last year at the 2018 LA Auto Show, and with it, the all-electric adventure company’s attendance at the New York International Auto Show this year has now generated quite a few more vehicle detail revelations from interviews posted online by show attendees.

Thanks for the warm welcome, #NY! See you again soon. pic.twitter.com/RNTHh5bYy3

— Rivian (@Rivian) April 28, 2019

Brian Gase, Rivian’s Chief Engineer of Special Projects, appeared in a number of videos describing features of the R1T truck and R1S SUV that are unique and otherwise not commonly known about the vehicles.

First, the number of storage compartments were one of the smaller details that stood out. In the R1T, the back passenger seats have bins underneath the cushions, and both vehicles have sliding bins underneath the driver and shotgun seats. A full size spare tire is in the R1T bed and can be removed for even more storage if needed, but to save space for storage and its usable third row seating, the R1S has an inflatable spare tire under the trunk floor.

Rivian’s plans for interior color options were also mentioned, and there are three: Forest Edge (the green inside the demo R1T), Lunar Rock (the grey inside the demo R1S), and black. Additional premium options will be offered for interior fabrics which are already a blend of traditional materials and the types of fabrics you’d find in durable outerwear. The cabins also feature quad-zone climate control.

On the performance side, 170 kW of independent power is provided to each wheel which also provides for torque vectoring. The approximately 750-800 total horsepower in each vehicle works out to about 180 hp per wheel from each of the four motors.

Rivian R1S SUV at New York Auto Show 2019. | Image: Dacia J. Ferris/Teslarati

Rivian R1S SUV at New York Auto Show 2019. | Image: Dacia J. Ferris/Teslarati

Rivian R1S SUV at New York Auto Show 2019. | Image: Dacia J. Ferris/Teslarati

Rivian’s high density battery pack, complete with a thermal control system that adapts according to charging and driving behavior, then powers the whole package. A giant battery might not seem like it would be a great choice for four-wheel adventures, but Rivian has tightly encased its vehicles’ power supply using advanced materials science to be capable of wading up to three feet of water. Since there’s no engine requiring air, only buoyancy prevents a deeper crawl.

Progress in the automotive self-driving arena is moving fast, and Rivian has already integrated that reality into the R1T and R1S designs. The camera and radar hardware on production vehicles will be capable of Level 3 autonomous driving that’s upgradable via over-the-air software updates. Rivian’s initial vehicles will ship with Level 2 capabilities and use data accumulated from its customers’ driving sent to the cloud to develop its Level 3 transition, very similar to Tesla’s strategy. Previously, Rivian has additionally suggested Jurassic Park-style autonomous tours might be available for owners wanting a guided, real-world adventure experience.

Rivian has several test mules on the road using F-150 bodies, but only one production design model of each car has been made to be used at shows and in videos.

Finally, you might know that Rivian was founded in 2009 by CEO RJ Scaringe, an MIT graduate (he holds an MS and PhD in mechanical engineering), but it seems lesser known how his personal life story is imprinted right in the company’s name. Scaringe grew up near the Indian River region of Florida, and that’s where the Rivian name is derived (RIV(er)-(Ind)IAN).

BACK TO BASICS

All of those tidbits will now join the overall more well known features driving the appeal of Rivian’s R1T truck and R1S SUV. A recap of the basics may put them into a better perspective still.

On battery packs, Rivian’s focus on outdoor adventure means that decent battery capacity and range are key components if their product ideas are to be successful, and their much-touted 180 kWh battery “megapack” boasting a 400+ mile range seems to fit that bill. The mid-range 135 kWh pack claiming a 300 mile range is also decent for well-planned routes, and it just so happens to have a fun number of 2170 battery cells – 7,777 exactly if you count the battery inside the in-door flashlight. The 135 kWh battery pack vehicles are also the versions that will do 0-60 mph in 3 seconds, although all versions are speed limited to 125 mph. A lower end 105 kWh pack with a 230 mile range will be produced last, per the usual new EV strategy of offering premium cars before more affordable variations.

I’m exhausted, feet hurt, & nursing a migraine but… I got to meet Brian Gase, Chief Engineer at @Rivian and got some great pics of the R1T & R1S, incl the door flashlight I love. Lol. Thx!He humored me and gave a demo. 👐Now for some NYC gourmet b4 home for nap! #NYautoshow pic.twitter.com/gs5XfMNPGQ

— Dacia J. Ferris (@PrincessDeixa) April 18, 2019

The first R1S and R1T deliveries are set for the end of 2020, and Rivian is currently taking preorder deposits to reserve their upcoming vehicles. Purchase prices will start at $69,000 for the R1T and $72,500 for the R1S before tax incentives.

Aside from being first to unveil a near-production all-electric pickup truck, two other features in Rivian’s electric cars have stood out. First, the quad-motor “skateboard” chassis that forms the base of current and future vehicles centralizes and simplifies Rivian’s innovations into a flexible electric car platform for its future product lines. This feature has also drawn interest from big-name partners like GM and Ford, the latter having just signed a $500 million deal with Rivian to use its tech to develop their first all-electric vehicle.

A somewhat new tidbit about the skateboard platform is the size difference between the R1S version and the R1T version. The R1S chassis is 375 mm shorter than the R1T to boost its off-road capabilities. Both vehicles’ towing capacity is around 11,000 pounds.

The second well-known feature about Rivian’s two outdoor-purposed vehicles is the amount of storage space incorporated into the designs. The frunks are spacious with a 330 mL capacity, and the R1T truck has what they call a ‘gear tunnel’, which is essentially a large cargo space tunneled through the lower middle of the truck’s cab. It looks to have the makings of the next social media photo craze, but that’s obviously speculation.

Rivian R1T truck at the NY Auto Show 2019. | Image: Dacia J. Ferris/Teslarati

Rivian R1T truck at the NY Auto Show 2019. | Image: Dacia J. Ferris/Teslarati

Both the frunk and tailgates have powered open and close functions for ease of use, the tailgate opening a full 180 degrees, and the bed has a powered built-in tonneau cover strong enough to support loading. Also included in the truck bed are 110V power outlets, onboard air, lights to illuminate the bed, and a gear cable that’s electronically connected to the vehicle. If the cable is cut or disconnected for any reason, the owner receives a notification on their Rivian app.

Other details to mention are the electrochromatic glass roof built into both the R1T and R1S that can change color on demand, specifically in response to outside weather and light conditions, and the daytime running lights that also act as turn signals and charging status indicator lights. A charging status indicator is also in the back of the vehicles.

Check these #rivian R1T features out! The sun roof changing colors and the height adjustable air springs in action! #NYautoshow2019 #electricvehicles #electrictruck #truck pic.twitter.com/Wc517rt8dM

— Dacia J. Ferris (@PrincessDeixa) April 18, 2019

The last major Rivian feature to mention is the adaptable air suspension. Both vehicles’ ride height can be easily raised or lowered depending on road conditions to adjust comfort and handling characteristics. There’s even a ‘kneel’ mode to ease vehicle entry and exit.

STILL TO COME

Rivian’s R1T truck and R1S SUV already have enough innovative details to drive their consumer appeal as-is, but the company has even more developments going on in the background. Recently published patent applications have revealed a modular system for swapping out vehicle components based on activity need and a digital jerry can to extend the battery range even further for longer trips away from a charging network.

Additionally, trademark applications filed with the US Patent and Trademark Office have teased several other products in the works with names like 1C, 1A, and 2R. An interview with RJ Scaringe published by Bloomberg confirmed that Rivian is indeed working on six other products.

Details surrounding Rivian’s plans for a service network are still slim despite the abundance of other important information about the Michigan-based company. The R1S and R1T vehicles will use CCS charging ports, but whether a charging partnership or a home-grown effort is planned remains to be seen.

A NY International Auto Show attendee recently posted on Reddit details gathered from speaking with Rivian’s team, including Scaringe, and indications were made that the company is interested in using Tesla’s Superchargers, although they’ve had some difficulties with the effort. A potential roadshow tour offering test drives was also mentioned.

A couple of the Rivian video interviews can be watched below:

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has published the first official renders of the company’s updated stainless steel Starship, offering glimpses of the spacecraft on both the Moon and Mars.

Although the designs of Starship and Super Heavy (formerly BFS and BFR) have shifted significantly over the past three years, the vehicle’s primary destinations have remained stable. Above all else, SpaceX remains focused on designing its next-gen rocket to be the best spacecraft ever built for transporting huge payloads and humans to the Moon, Mars, and ultimately throughout the solar system. The interplanetary future of Starship is currently an unknown quantity but SpaceX is already building the first full-scale orbital prototype and testing multiple finished versions of the Raptor engine that will power it.

As discussed earlier today, SpaceX has already completed a low-fidelity prototype of Starship known as Starhopper, designed to – per its namesake – perform low-altitude, low-velocity hop tests. Powered by Raptor, Starhopper also acts as a mobile test stand for the next-gen rocket engine meant to power both Starship and its Super Heavy booster. SpaceX’s current planning has delayed a vacuum variant of the engine for several years, instead choosing to standardize the same Raptor engine across both stages of BFR. Starship will feature seven Raptor engines producing ~14,000 kN (~3.2M lbf) of thrust, while Super Heavy’s latest iteration would require a 31 Raptors and produce a staggering 62,000 kN/14M lbf of thrust at liftoff.

That performance – theoretically making Starship/Super Heavy almost two times as powerful as Saturn V – is essential to support massive missions to Mars and the Moon while also enabling complete reusability of the rocket. SpaceX rightly judged that rapid, low-effort reusability is the only way to truly revolutionize the cost of access to orbit, at least for the indefinite future. This need itself piggybacks on CEO Elon Musk’s founding motivation: to make humanity a multi-planetary species and protect it against future mass-extinction events.

Musk has long viewed the Moon as a distraction to that goal, offering very little prospect of being more than a detour, but both NASA and the political apparatus currently controlling the US have decided that a rebranded Moon return is desirable. Repeating several nearly identical Moon return proposals from the last few decades, the political powers that be have yet to actually put any money where their mouths are. SpaceX and Musk have nonetheless jumped on the bandwagon, a pragmatic decision to hedge bets in case funding actually appears. Unsurprisingly, SpaceX is interested in any opportunity to acquire federal funding for its expensive Starship/Super Heavy/Raptor development programs.

In September 2018, SpaceX announced plans to send Japanese billionaire Yusaku Maezawa and 8-10 artists of his choice on the first Starship mission around the Moon. According to Musk, that could happen as early as 2023 but will necessarily be preceded by at least one uncrewed demonstration of Starship’s performance in deep space. Given the nominal reusability of Starship, the same spacecraft might perform both missions.

In the meantime, SpaceX is in the process of building the first orbital Starship prototype, although it’s unclear just how advanced the vehicle will be. Depending on how polished and successful SpaceX’s Starship Alpha (for lack of a better term) is, it’s conceivable that the spacecraft could be retrofitted or upgraded for actual demonstration missions to deep space or the Moon. To enable the long-term reusability of Starships, SpaceX will need to rely on in-orbit refueling by way of dedicated tanker launches. However, a lower-fidelity prototype that might otherwise be scrapped could be a prime candidate for a one-way Moon-impact or lunar-landing mission, reducing risk for future crewed or uncrewed Starship missions to the Moon before SpaceX has the facilities and hardware to support simultaneous Starship and tanker launches.

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