LNG: TESLARATI

According to SpaceX COO/President Gwynne Shotwell and a Turkish satellite industry official, Starship and Super Heavy may have a role to play in the launch of Turksat’s first domestically-procured communications satellite.

Per Shotwell’s specific phrasing, this comes as a bit of a surprise. Built by Airbus Defense and Space, SpaceX is already on contract to launch Turksat’s 5A and 5B communications satellites as early as Q2 2020 and Q1 2021, respectively. The spacecraft referred to in the context of Starship is the generation meant to follow 5A/5B: Turksat 6A and any follow-on variants. Turksat’s 6-series satellites will be designed and manufactured domestically rather than procured from non-Turkish heavyweights like Airbus or SSL. However, the Turksat 6A satellite’s current baseline specifications would make it an extremely odd fit for a launch vehicle as large as Starship/Super Heavy.

Curiously, in written statements to Turkish media outlets, Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) referred to a “Turksat 6A2” satellite for the first time ever. Prior to comments made at the Satellite 2019 conference, Turksat’s prospects beyond 5A/5B were simply referred to as “Turksat 6A”, a ~4300 kg (9500 lb) domestically-built communications satellite scheduled for completion no earlier than the end of 2020. Turksat 5A and 5B will both be approximately 4500 kg (9900 lb), well within the capability of the flight-proven Falcon 9 rockets they are expected to launch on.

Why, then, might Starship “[potentially] work for the next Turksat project”, as suggested by Shotwell? Referring to what Turksat GM Cenk Sen then described as “6A2”, Shotwell noted that the satellite would be “quite a large, complex satellite.” While undeniably massive relative to almost anything else, the 4300-kg Turksat 6A is actually in the middle of the road (maybe even on the smaller side) relative to most geostationary communications satellites built and launched in the last few years.

We’re gonna need a bigger speculation…

SpaceX COO and President Gwynne Shotwell would know this as intimately as anyone, given her essential role at the head of the launch services provider. Most recently, SpaceX used Falcon Heavy to launch Arabsat 6A (6500 kg/14,300 lb) to a uniquely high transfer orbit of ~90,000 km (56,000 mi). In the second half of 2018, Falcon 9 was also tasked with launching Telstar 18V (7060 kg/15,560 lb) and 19V (7076 kg/15,600 lb) to geostationary transfer orbits (GTO), with 19V technically becoming the heaviest commercial communications satellite ever launched.

SpaceX is also just a few days away from launching 60 Starlink test satellites, reportedly set to become the company’s heaviest payload ever with a mass greater than ~13,000 kg (30,000 lb). Put simply, SpaceX is about as familiar as one can possibly get with not only launching – but even building – truly massive and complex satellite payloads.

In short, it appears that “Turksat 6A2” may refer to an extremely ambitious follow-on to Turksat 6A (perhaps 6A1?). To warrant the use of Starship over the then highly-proven and well-paved Falcon 9 or Heavy, Turksat 6A2 would indeed have to be what Shotwell referred to as “quite a large, complex satellite”. In a recoverable configuration, Falcon 9 is capable of placing about 5500-6000 kg into a full GTO. Falcon Heavy allows for 8000-10000 kg, with the latter option assuming that all three boosters land on drone ships. Steel Starship’s performance – with or without tanker refueling – is effectively an unknown quantity at this point in time, although SpaceX CEO Elon Musk says more Starship info will be provided this year at a dedicated June 20th event.

Aside from questions of payload performance of Starship/Super Heavy relative to Falcon 9/Heavy, it’s unclear when the next-gen SpaceX rocket will actually be ready to start launching commercial payloads. Back in December 2018, Musk estimated that Starship had a 60% chance of reaching orbit by the end of 2020, with confidence on the rise as the company transitioned BFR’s structure from carbon composites to stainless steel. Four months after that estimate, a low-fidelity Starship prototype – nicknamed Starhopper – successfully completed two Raptor-powered test fires, straining a few feet into the air against large tethers. Meanwhile, Raptor testing continues in McGregor, Texas, while progress is also being made on what is said to be the first orbit-capable Starship prototype a few thousand feet from Starhopper.

A long path to orbit

Before SpaceX can begin orbital launch attempts with Starship, the company will need to build a new launch complex (or develop a floating launch platform), complete with processing and integration facilities also built from the ground up. Additionally, at least one massive Super Heavy booster will be needed for Starship to deliver more than just itself to orbit. Starship’s unprecedented metallic heat shield will need to be made flight-ready, while a minimum of 38 Raptor engines will need to be built and tested. In short, a huge amount of work needs to be done before Starship and its associated facilities will be capable of launching high-value customer payloads.

In other words, any prospective Cargo Starship customers will necessarily be shopping for launches in 2021-2022 at the absolute earliest. According to TAI’s Sen, SpaceX and its Starship vehicle will be just “one of the candidate[s]” eligible to compete for the Turksat 6A2 launch contract, hinting that these new comments are just the first of many more to come.

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Elon Musk has been selected as one of the recipients of the 2019 Stephen Hawking Medal for Science Communication, an award created in honor of the legendary theoretical physicist for individuals who promote the public awareness of science. The SpaceX and Tesla CEO will be receiving the Stephen Hawking medal at the Starmus Festival this coming June in Zurich, Switzerland.

The Stephen Hawking Medal for Science Communication is a prestigious award in the scientific community, having been introduced back in 2015 at the Royal Society in London by a panel including the theoretical physicist himself. The medal honors individuals from three communities: the scientific community, the artistic community, and the film community. When he personally presented the medals at the Starmus Festival in June 2016, Hawking noted that the award “matters to me, to you, to the world as a whole.”

Elon Musk will be receiving the Stephen Hawking medal for the scientific community for his “astounding accomplishments in space travel and for humanity,” according to Starmus in a press release. Starmus founding member and PhD astrophysicist Brian May will be personally presenting the medal to Musk, who has been described by noted evolutionary biologist Richard Dawkins as a “hero for our times.”

Other recipients of the Stephen Hawking Medal for Science Communication this year are musician Brian Eno for his contribution to the popularisation of science, as well as Todd Douglas Miller’s documentary Apollo 11, which provides a “breakthrough look” at the mission that brought man to the Moon.

The upcoming Starmus Festival is expected to be graced by some of the scientific community’s most prolific individuals. Educator Bill Nye will be the host of the ceremonies, and other notable individuals such as Apollo 11 astronaut Michael Collins and six other Apollo mission astronauts will be in attendance. Sir Michael Hintze, founder and Group Executive Chairman of asset management firm CQS and one of the supporters on Starmus, shared his excitement for this year’s awards.

“I am excited about our support for Starmus and the 2019 Stephen Hawking Medal. It is enabling us to better understand the origins and fate of our universe, where we have come from and where we might go. It is about intellectual curiosity, striving for knowledge and a journey of discovery about our planet and our place in the universe.  For science to grow and prosper we must excite and engage with our youth, and capture their imagination. The work being done here connects into the global scientific community and facilitates global collaboration,” he said.

This year’s awards are the first to be given since the death of Stephen Hawking, who personally invited Musk to Starmus prior to his passing. Starmus noted that this year’s awards are dedicated to the legacy of Hawking, and they are given in recognition of his affinity for applied technology.

Elon Musk is a polarizing figure in mainstream media today partly due to his celebrity CEO status and the public nature of his electric car and energy company, Tesla. Nevertheless, Musk has received numerous accolades over the years. Just this past January, Musk was dubbed as “Disruptor of the Year” for making the most ripples in the auto industry. Last year, Musk was also named as one of 2018’s best CEOs by Tesla and SpaceX employees, most likely due to his bold, hands-on leadership style.

During the days of the Model 3 ramp, for example, Musk courted some headlines after he was sighted torquing bolts with Tesla’s workers during the rapid buildout of GA4. Musk also reportedly uses himself as Autopilot’s primary test subject, running aggressive test versions of the driver-assist system to check for bugs and the limits of the system’s capabilities. A member of Tesla’s Autopilot team previously noted that this has resulted in Musk finding himself in “situations that many of us wouldn’t want to be in.”

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has published the first official photo of the company’s near-final Starlink design and confirmed that Falcon 9 will launch a staggering 60 satellites on May 15th.

Known internally as Starlink v0.9, this mission will not be the first launch of operational satellites, but it will be the first internal SpaceX mission with a dedicated Falcon 9 launch. Additionally, the payload will be the heaviest yet launched by SpaceX, signifying an extraordinarily ambitious first step towards realizing the company’s ~12,000-satellite Starlink megaconstellation.

Rewriting the satellite design book

Put simply, SpaceX’s Starlink v0.9 launch is extremely unique for several reasons. Aside from the unprecedented step of launching 60 spacecraft weighing ~13,000 kg (~30,000 lb) on a developmental mission, both the form factor of each satellite and the style of dispenser/payload adapter has never been seen before. SpaceX appears to have settled on a square dispenser with four separate quadrants for satellites. The satellites themselves look truly bizarre – it’s actually difficult to discern where one spacecraft stops and the next begins.

Nevertheless, it appears that each Starlink satellite is a relatively thin rectangle, possibly with a squared top and bottom. It’s also possible that they are all around rectangular and that the dispenser instead has two main sections. Either way, the very fact that the Starlink v0.9 payload can scarcely be parsed into recognizable satellites is thrilling. Aside from the rise of smallsats and cubesats, satellite design and engineering has been relatively stagnant for decades, particularly with respect to form factors and structural layouts. Most modern satellites are simply square-ish boxes with electronics inside and payloads bolted on the outside.

By all appearances, SpaceX’s Starlink beta satellites suffer from no such tried-and-true design tropes. This is a somewhat calculated risk, as those current tried-and-true satellite design rules are conservative but decidedly proven over dozens of years of orbital experience. To throw out the satellite design textbook is to invite an increased potential for failure in order to pursue entirely new ways of thinking, designing, building, and launching spacecraft.

Even relative to fairly innovative constellations like the SpaceX-launched Iridium NEXT and OneWeb look downright mundane when examined alongside SpaceX’s inaugural Borg-cube-esque payload. SpaceX’s Starlink layout looks like nothing seen before. At the same time, it appears that the bizarre, new approach has likely maximized the density and stacking efficiency of dozens of satellites to an unprecedented degree.

Despite using the same exact Falcon fairing that has been standard for years, SpaceX has managed to cram 60 spacecraft – each weighing around 200-300 kg – into just the bottom two-thirds of the fairing, leaving a considerable amount of unused volume for future expansion.

According to President and COO Gwynne Shotwell, Starlink v0.9 satellites are extremely close to SpaceX’s true final design. However, they are still considered by SpaceX to be a “test batch” of satellites and do not have the optical (laser) interlinks that will be a critical part of Starlink’s unique constellation design. The mission is currently scheduled to launch at 10:30 pm EDT (02:30 UTC), May 15th and will have a flexible four-hour window. The mission will be preceded by a routine Falcon 9 static fire no earlier than (NET) May 13th.

Update:

According to Musk, SpaceX has actually entirely gotten rid of a satellite-dispenser middle-man, instead relying on the structure of the satellites themselves to act as their own launch adapters and deployment mechanisms. This has been done in the past on a far smaller scale – typically with 2-3 several-ton satellites – but has never been attempted at the scale SpaceX is just days away from launching.

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Tesla was recently dubbed by automotive classified advertising firm Auto Trader as the Most Loved Brand in the industry in its 2019 New Car Awards. According to the company, Tesla appears to have formed the strongest connection with its customers among carmakers today.

The Most Loved Brand award was determined through an analysis of feedback collected from a survey of over 60,000 vehicle owners, who rated their cars in 16 key metrics. Tesla ultimately came out on top, propelled by a community of enthusiastic owners who proved particularly passionate about the brand.

Auto Trader listed a number of notable responses from its survey of Tesla owners. One owner noted that a Tesla is simply “better on every metric,” considering its “space, performance, tech features,” and the fact that it gets better with age thanks to over-the-air updates. Another owner described Teslas as “insanely safe,” feeling “strong and controlled, even on snow and ice.” Particularly notable was an owner who stated that Teslas are great due to their environmentally-friendly characteristics. “It doesn’t cause any air pollution. I can look my children in the eye and say I didn’t contribute to doing that,” the Tesla owner said.

The automotive advertising firm noted that technology was a prominent theme among the feedback from Tesla’s customers. Features like Autopilot, which makes driving easier, and the Supercharger Network, which makes recharging vehicles more convenient, saw notable mentions as well. Lastly, the raw power of Teslas also received a lot of positive feedback from electric car owners.

Auto Trader road test editor Ivan Aistrop discussed the results of the company’s survey, as well as Tesla’s win. “Our research shows that pioneering technology and the feel-good factor of electric motoring certainly play their part in Tesla owners’ enthusiasm about their cars, but there’s more to it than that. Tesla has managed to make electric motoring cool, and that’s a trick that not many other electric car manufacturers have managed to pull off so far. What owning a Tesla says about you seem to be as important to owners as the car itself, and for a company trying to build brand loyalty and desirability, that’s a masterstroke,” he said.

Considering the ever-growing community of passionate Tesla owners, it is no surprise that Auto Trader listed the company as the Most Loved Brand in its 2019 New Car Awards. Tesla, after all, is a carmaker which holds a strong social media presence despite not spending anything for advertising. As icing on the cake, the company’s CEO, Elon Musk, is also highly involved in communicating with owners and enthusiasts on Twitter, further strengthening Tesla’s brand.

Watch Auto Trader’s announcement of Tesla’s win in the Most Loved Brand category of its 2019 New Car Awards in the video below.

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk says he will provide a public update on the development status of Starship and Super Heavy in an official presentation later this summer, possibly as soon as June 20th.

Meanwhile, SpaceX’s South Texas team have been busy at work on both Starhopper and a newer Starship, said by Musk to be the first orbit-capable prototype. In the last week, technicians have begun stacking several sections of the vehicle’s stainless steel hull, all fabricated and welded together side-by-side. On Thursday, May 9th, this progressed to the installation of the Starship’s first gently tapered nose section atop its cylindrical tank section. Likely the second- or third-to-last major stack before its aeroshell is assembled into one piece, the orbital prototype is starting to truly resemble a real Starship.

They grow up so fast…

CEO Elon Musk revealed SpaceX’s Mars colonization architecture back in September 2016 and has since provided design and development updates every 6-12 months. Between then now, Starship/Super Heavy (formerly BFR, fore-formerly ITS) has radically changed. Originally baselined with a diameter of 12 m (40 ft), an almost entirely carbon composite design, and a spaceship with bulky tripod fins/wings, SpaceX helped design, build, and test a full-scale liquid oxygen tank.

Six months after the tank was destroyed (likely intentionally) during testing, Musk announced in Sept. 2017 that ITS was now called BFR and would feature a leaner 9m (30 ft) diameter. He also revealed tentative plans to enlist BFR in a point-to-point Earth transportation scheme offering travelers access to almost anywhere on Earth in ~30 minutes. In September 2018, the design changed once more, gaining ~10m of height and three mobile tripod fins/wings/legs. Finally, just a few months after the 2018 update, Musk revealed that SpaceX was moving almost entirely away from carbon composites and would instead use stainless steel throughout BFR’s structure. BFR was also renamed to Starship/Super Heavy.

Episode 4: Revenge of the Steel

Given SpaceX’s breakneck pace of Starhopper and Starship development, it’s possible that Musk’s “probably June 20th” event is meant to correlate with a yet-unknown Starship or Starhopper milestone. Back in early January, Musk suggested that the first orbital Starship prototype could be “complete” as early as June. However, a few weeks later, Starhopper suffered a setback when its facade/nosecone toppled over and was irreparably destroyed.

Several months distant, it’s hard to actually say if that hardware loss has impacted SpaceX’s schedule much at all. Sans nose section, SpaceX instead conducted a number of wet dress rehearsals and successfully ignited Raptor and jumped the tethered Starhopper a few feet in early April, more or less right on schedule per a December 2018 Musk tweet.

At this point in time, it’s highly unlikely that the orbital Starship prototype will be truly complete just a month or two from now. Most notably, “completion” would require seven flight-ready Raptor engines, of which SpaceX is known to have only completed 3-4 in the last four months. Despite an apparent lack of Raptors for a June completion of the orbital prototype, it may actually be possible for SpaceX to complete (in a very rough sense) the main structure of the Starship.

Major progress has been made in the last few weeks and the orbital prototype is starting to look more and more like an actual Starship. Aside from finishing the vehicle’s propellant and header tanks and engine section/thrust structure, SpaceX still needs to install avionics, wiring, plumbing, cold-gas maneuvering thrusters, COPVs, access and umbilical ports and panels, an entire heat shield, its tripod wings/fins/legs, and more. At the same time, it’s unclear if SpaceX will attempt to send Starship to orbit on its own before the first Super Heavy booster prototype is complete, an even more massive undertaking ahead of the company.

For now, all we can do is wait and watch SpaceX’s gloriously bizarre steel Starship prototype continue to grow, while Starhoppper prepares for untethered hops a few thousand feet to the east. Things could be worse!

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