LNG: TESLARATI

Despite receiving some pushback from two board members of the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority, The Boring Company has nevertheless secured a contract to build a transport tunnel under the LVCA’s campus. The project, which was approved following a vote by the LVCA’s board on Wednesday, will be comprised of two tunnels that are designed to transport passengers from the LVCA campus’ New Exhibit Hall to the existing North/Central Hall.

The Boring Company’s Las Vegas tunnel is expected to be completed in time for the 2021 Consumer Electronics Show, which will be held in January. Elon Musk has expressed his optimism at the project’s potential completion date, stating on Twitter that the transport tunnel could be operational by the end of 2019. This is a very aggressive timetable, though the relatively short length of the tunnel at less than one mile could improve the Boring Company’s chances at completing the project within Musk’s target timeframe.

The Las Vegas transport tunnel will utilize a Loop System, which is comprised of autonomous electric vehicles (AEV) that can carry passengers from one point to another. The Boring Company notes that standard AEVs are Tesla Model X and Model 3 vehicles, though high-occupancy AEVs are also under development. The latter utilizes a modified Model X chassis that is capable of transporting up to 16 passengers with both sitting and standing room. Provided that The Boring Company could complete the Las Vegas transport tunnel without delays, test runs in the system could begin as early as November 2020, according to the project’s public contract.

In its vote on Wednesday, the LVCA granted a $48.6 million contract to the tunneling startup, though the total project is estimated to cost around $52.5 million. Two-thirds of the total funding for the project will not be released to the tunneling startup until the transport tunnel is complete. Previous reports also hinted that if the Boring Company is unable to receive a certificate of occupancy for the transport tunnel, the LVCA will get back its entire investment.

While the Boring Company was able to secure the Las Vegas contract, the tunneling startup’s proposal still met some pushback from two board members of the LVCA. In recent weeks, board members Michele Fiore and Carolyn Goodman argued against the Boring Company’s proposal, citing the startup’s inexperience. The two board members suggested that the LVCA adopt the proposal of Austria-based Doppelmayr Garaventa Group instead, which will create an above-ground transit system that would cost around $215 million to complete.

During Amazon’s all-hands meeting in March, CEO Jeff Bezos stated that he is fascinated by the emerging trends in the auto industry. Bezos noted that it was this fascination that ultimately played a part in Amazon’s hefty $700 million investment in electric truck startup Rivian Automotive back in February.

“If you think about the auto industry right now, there’s so many things going on with Uber-ization, electrification, the connected car — so it’s a fascinating industry. It’s going to be something very interesting to watch and participate in, and I’m very excited about that whole industry,” Bezos said.

Bezos’ optimism for emerging industries extends beyond the electric car market. Apart from Rivian, Amazon has also invested in self-driving startup Aurora, hinting that the CEO is also looking to capitalize on autonomous driving technology for the e-commerce giant’s operations in the future. If its investment in Aurora pans out, for example, Amazon would likely gain an optimized solution that would allow the company to deliver shipments to its customers using self-driving machines.

Investing in Rivian would allow Amazon to dip its toes in the electric car industry. The EV market is a steadily growing segment that is seeing more and more participation from veteran automakers such as Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz. While initially populated by a few premium EVs like the Tesla Model S, the electric car segment has now started reaching the mass market, with vehicles such as the Hyundai Kona EV, Kia Niro EV, and the Standard Plus Tesla Model 3 providing a good balance between price and features. With vehicles such as the Volkswagen ID.3 in the pipeline, the spread of EV adoption is all but certain. 

Amazon’s investment in Rivian and Aurora will likely be a strategic move from the e-commerce giant. Patents from Rivian hint at the electric truck startup working on swappable modules for its vehicles, allowing them to be used for multiple purposes. These solutions, as well as the opportunities offered by Rivian’s “skateboard,” could even open the doors for the development of other electric vehicles that could be useful for Amazon.

While Bezos emphasized that he does not see electric cars becoming a “pillar” for Amazon just yet, he is fully supportive of electric cars and Rivian’s initiatives as a whole. “As with most of our major investments, and acquisitions, we’re always looking for mission-driven entrepreneurs — missionaries instead of mercenaries. And the guy who leads the company, a guy named R.J., is one of the most missionary entrepreneurs I’ve ever met,” Bezos said.

On May 20th, SpaceX technicians successfully stacked a nosecone on top of the company’s Boca Chica orbital Starship prototype. Simultaneously, a separate team of technicians and engineers have been hard at work building a second similar-but-different Starship prototype near Cape Canaveral, Florida.

Officially confirmed last week by Elon Musk, the SpaceX CEO revealed that the company was not only building two orbital Starship prototypes simultaneously – not news in itself – but that those prototypes were being built as a sort of internal competition between different teams and ideas. The competition is not cutthroat – knowledge is shared between Texas and Florida – but the strategy is fairly similar. In lieu of actual commercial competitors, SpaceX is attempting to compete with itself to more rapidly and effectively develop a brand new launch vehicle – the stainless steel Starship/Super Heavy.

A Starship rises in the East

In just the last week, both SpaceX groups have made major progress. On the East Coast, the general public saw the first photo of SpaceX’s Florida Starship build precisely seven days ago. It appears that SpaceX has more or less taken over a Cocoa, Florida facility known to be the prior home of Coastal Steel, a repeat NASA contractor known for steelwork.

It’s unclear if SpaceX has fully acquired Coastal Steel or is simply partnering with the small company in the early stages of its Florida Starship buildup. Regardless, even from perspectives quite a bit more distant than those available in Texas, it’s clear that the metal workmanship is at least on par with Boca Chica, if not giving them a run for their money.

Admittedly, the playing field is not exactly level. SpaceX’s South Texas team has been working just a few thousand feet away from the unobstructed Gulf of Mexico in conditions that would make for an excellent traditional-aerospace horror show. Aside from a lone tent, all welding, assembly, integration, and testing has been done while fully exposed to the elements. SpaceX’s Florida team appears to have the luxury of an established warehouse – previously used for steelwork – to use as a covered and partially insulated work and staging area. The Florida team effectively had everything they needed (give or take) on hand from the moment work began, while Texas had to quite literally build all of its facilities from nothing.

Be it the facility luxuries or Cape Canaveral’s far larger pool of local aerospace talent, it’s clear that SpaceX’s Florida team will be a competitive force to be reckoned with despite Texas’ apparent head start. In the seven days since the first photos of the Florida Starship were published, SpaceX technicians have almost doubled the height of the largest welded section, raising it from ~5.5m to ~9m (18-30 ft).

Meanwhile, those working inside the staging warehouse continue to crank out 2x9m subsections, already making way for what appears to be the first tapered nose section of the Florida Starship. At this rate, Florida could very well catch up to SpaceX’s Texas Starship just a month or two from now. It’s worth noting that the Florida team does not appear to be involved in any Starhopper activities. SpaceX Boca Chica, on the other hand, has spent a major portion of the last several months building out Starhopper and preparing the odd prototype for untethered hop tests.

The (slightly) Old(er) Guard

Despite Starship Florida’s rapid progress, Starship Texas has not exactly been standing around. In the last week or so, SpaceX technicians and engineers have been simultaneously working on major new integration, assembly, and test campaigns with both Starhopper and the first orbital Starship prototype. A dedicated Starhopper article will come later this week as SpaceX’s South Texas team nears Raptor reinstallation and an untethered hop test campaign, scheduled to begin as early as the end of May.

On the orbital Starship side of things, Boca Chica took a major symbolic step towards aeroshell completion by capping off the upper half of the prototype with a stainless steel nose section. Altogether, the Starship assembly now stands about 25m (80 ft) tall from tip to tail, roughly 60% as tall as a Falcon 9 booster (first stage). With the installation of the craft’s nose, SpaceX has also implicitly confirmed that most – if not all – of the Starship prototype’s tankage still needs to be built, unless a great deal of hardware is hiding inside Boca Chica’s on-site tent.

What could either be the orbital Starship’s seven-Raptor engine section or the start of its liquid oxygen or methane tank is also being built a few hundred feet distant. That mystery segment was recently lifted onto a second concrete jig for easier access, while SpaceX has also been hard at work building a dedicated integration facility similar to the warehouse being used in Florida.

Altogether, SpaceX’s South Texas team appears to be 30-40% away from completing a Starship-sized steel aeroshell. A huge amount of work remains to be done on the inside of the theoretically orbit-capable vehicle, including propellant tanks, a thrust structure capable of supporting seven Raptor engines, landing legs/fins, and a jungle of plumbing and avionics installation. Still, the amount of progress already visible is undeniably impressive, made even more intriguing by the existence of a separate Starship build effort to the east.

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SpaceX has filed a lawsuit – technically a “Bid Protest Complaint” – against the United States government and successfully petitioned for the file to remain sealed, restricting access to additional case details for the time being.

This development follows a quiet series of bid protests SpaceX filed with the Government Accountability Office (GAO) in February 2019, shortly after NASA announced that it had awarded ULA a ~$150M launch contract for Lucy (a robotic Trojan asteroid explorer). SpaceX believed that it could perform the mission at a “dramatically lower” price, potentially saving the federal government tens of millions of dollars. SpaceX withdrew both of its GAO bid protests without comment on April 4th. Whether those prior protests are related to SpaceX’s May 2019 lawsuit is unclear.

Adding even more complexity and uncertainty to the series of events, NASA awarded SpaceX the launch contract for its Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft on April 20th, about two weeks after SpaceX retracted its Lucy protests. The cause-and-effect relationship between both events is wholly ambiguous. Perhaps SpaceX withdrew before the company was made aware of their DART win. Perhaps they withdrew their protest because they learned of NASA’s award.

Regardless of what did or did not trigger the contract award, the fact remains that SpaceX’s DART launch will cost NASA ~$70M, less than half the price of ULA’s ~$150M Lucy launch contract. As such, it seems likely that launching Lucy on Falcon 9 could have saved the US government as much as $50M, assuming an expendable profile (~$100M per SpaceX’s latest GPS III launch contracts).

Returning to the topic at hand, the simplest explanation is that SpaceX’s GAO bid protests and May 2019 lawsuit are in some way related. Although SpaceX was clearly correct when it insinuated that it could launch Lucy far more affordably than ULA, the company was criticized for its GAO protests because they effectively froze – or at least complicated – work on the NASA spacecraft. In the event that the withdrawals and lawsuit are related, SpaceX would have backed down after entering into the slow GAO protest process, essentially conceding the contract to ULA and allowing spacecraft work to continue without disruption.

Replaced with a lawsuit against the US government, SpaceX could instead be attempting to change the processes that lead NASA to award ULA the Lucy launch contract in spite of potential savings on the order of ~$50M. SpaceX has done something similar once before when it sued the US Air Force for its uncompetitive launch procurement processes, a largely successful endeavor that has helped force some competition back into USAF/DoD launch contracts.

However, there are several additional possibilities for the actual subject of SpaceX’s latest sealed suit. Most recently, NASA distributed ~$46M among 11 companies for studies and prototypes of lunar landers, transfer vehicles, and in-space refueling technology. SpaceX tied with Aerojet Rocketdyne for the least substantial awards out of those 11 companies, each receiving funds for a single study, while most other awardees were contracted for multiple studies and/or prototypes. This is a stretch, however.

The most likely alternative to a continuation of SpaceX’s Lucy protest is a lawsuit focused on the USAF’s latest EELV/NSSL development contracts and its proposed continuation of block-buy launch procurement. Of the four companies involved, Blue Origin and SpaceX have both criticized the USAF for a variety of reasons. Both did agree, however, in their dislike of the USAF’s inexplicable desire to award all launch contracts to two victors, despite there being as many as four different launch vehicles that could feasibly compete for those several-dozen contracts.

For now, details of SpaceX’s latest lawsuit will remain sealed, leaving the company’s motivations veiled in mystery. SpaceX’s next USAF mission could occur as early as June 22nd. Known as STP-2, it will mark Falcon Heavy’s third flight, the rocket’s first defense-related launch, and the USAF’s first use of flight-proven SpaceX boosters. If successful, SpaceX will effectively be able to compete with ULA for all conceivable future launch contracts.

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Tesla’s Autopilot features frequently make headlines when the latest advancements are released to its all-electric fleet, and media attention from its and other groups’ successes looks to have resulted in a consumer base that’s excited for autonomous cars. A survey of more than 5,500 consumers and 280 auto executives by Capgemini, a consulting group, concluded that automotive consumers are ready for the future of self-driving cars, and 59% of them are even waiting with anticipation.

Capgemini’s study set out to understand more than just whether consumers were ready for self-driving advancements. It also sought to determine the level of understanding those same consumers had for what driverless cars would mean in the bigger picture and what their expectations were for the feature as it applied to their own lives. Positive indications were given in this area as well. Over 50% of study participants said they would trust autonomous cars to make sound decisions during unexpected situations and drop off or pick up non-driving close friends or family members. Nearly 50% would trust their cars to run an errand on their behalf.

According to Capgemini’s results, there’s even more good news for companies like Tesla and Waymo who are hedging their futures on autonomy’s success. Consumers are not only excited for what’s being promised, but they’re also willing to pay a premium for the feature. 56% of study participants said they’d be willing to pay a premium of up to 20% over their current budget for a self-driving car. Tesla’s current price for its Full Self-Driving software looks to be matched to this finding. Priced as a $6,000 option paired with a $39,000 Model 3 Standard Range Plus, Tesla’s customers are already willing to pay a 15% premium in anticipation of a feature that’s not yet available.

Another part of the study pointed to the importance of the consumer experience when it comes to self-driving cars. The prime benefit of the technology isn’t simply to designate a task from a human to a computer – it needs to have perks like convenience and fun added into the mix. “[Companies]…must develop an ecosystem of services to complement consumers’ experience while in a self-driving vehicle,” the study’s summary remarked. 57% of consumers in the survey said they planned to spend their time indulging in entertainment activities in their cars once self-driving was available. This is an area where Tesla can really make its mark.

Tesla ownership already offers several fun and entertaining activities. Internet browsing, music streaming, amusing Easter Eggs, and in-car games are already part of its user experience, and those features will likely be expanded much further once drivers no longer need to keep their attention on the road. Features like “Romance Mode” could be reimagined to include scenic drives, for instance, or TeslAtari could incorporate environmental cues into game play akin to “I Spy” or something similar.

Fully autonomous vehicles still have a long road ahead of both development and regulatory approvals, but knowing there’s a consumer market ready and willing to participate in the future the technology is promising is perhaps enough to keep things moving long enough for it to succeed.

In an announcement on Monday, General Motors Co stated that most of its global fleet of vehicles would be capable of receiving over-the-air software upgrades by 2023. The upgrades, which were unveiled by General Motors President Mark Reuss, are made possible due to the adoption of an electronic architecture that’s an “exponential jump” from the hardware in the company’s existing lineup of vehicles.

Dubbed as the Digital Vehicle Platform, the next-generation system is expected to be rolled out to all of GM’s vehicles by 2023. The 2020 Cadillac CT5 sport sedan, which is expected to go on sale later this year, is expected to be GM’s first vehicle to be equipped with the new OTA-capable electronics. Al Adams, GM’s director of electronic architecture, described the platform as the “vehicle’s brain and nervous system,” being “five times more capable than today’s system.”

Reuss, who noted back in 2016 that GM will not be utilizing over-the-air updates for critical safety systems such as brakes, emphasized the role of software to the company’s vehicles. “The critical role of software and its importance to our vehicles, both now and for years to come, cannot be overstated. Our new digital vehicle platform and its eventual successors will underpin all our future innovations across a wide range of technological advancements, including EVs and expanded automated driving,” he said.

GM’s Digital Vehicle Platform is capable of handling 4.5 TB of data per hour. The automaker noted that OTA updates for its cars would allow improvements to engine performance, fuel economy, ride comfort, steering, navigation, as well as safety features. The new hardware will also deliver better image resolution for infotainment systems, and improve the performance of GM’s SuperCruise driver-assist suite.

“Components and systems can be improved throughout the vehicle’s life. Electrical architectures are the next battleground of the auto industry,” Adams said.

Apart from the upcoming 2020 Cadillac CT5, GM’s Digital Vehicle Platform is expected to be fitted on the mid-engine Chevrolet Corvette that is set to debut this coming July. Over 300 electrical engineers from GM’s tech center in Warren and its proving ground in Milford worked on the system.

GM might be among the first veteran carmakers to announce a dedicated initiative to transition its fleet of vehicles into smart cars in the future, but there is no denying that the company is coming into the party quite late. Tesla introduced over-the-air updates with the Model S back in 2012, and this very capability has been one of Tesla’s most prominent strengths ever since. By the time GM completes the rollout of its Digital Vehicle Architecture, Tesla would have already been doing OTA updates for 11 years.

Tesla might not be experienced enough yet to be considered one of the major players in the established auto industry, but what the Silicon Valley-based company lacks in raw experience, it makes up for in tech mastery. This is among the reasons why the tech in the Tesla Model 3 was able to astound industry experts such as Sandy Munro to no end.