LNG: TESLARATI

SpaceX has created a brand new website dedicated to its Starlink satellite constellation, a prelude to offering Internet service to consumers after as few as six launches.

Additionally, Starlink.com reiterated CEO Elon Musk’s estimate that SpaceX will conduct 2-6 dedicated Starlink launches – carrying at least 60 satellites each – in 2019 alone. In other words, a best-case satellite deployment scenario could mean that SpaceX will be able to start offering Starlink service to consumers “in the Northern U.S. and Canadian latitudes” as early as this year, while commercial offerings would thus be all but guaranteed in 2020. A step further, SpaceX believes it will be able to offer coverage of the entirety of the populated world after as few as 24 launches (~1500 Starlink satellites).

“Starlink is targeted to offer service in the Northern U.S. and Canadian latitudes after six launches, rapidly expanding to global coverage of the populated world after an expected 24 launches. SpaceX is targeting two to six Starlink launches by the end of this year.” — SpaceX, Starlink.com

This quiet announcement of SpaceX’s expected initial operational capability (IOC) confirms that the company’s plans to offer communications services to consumers are just as ambitious as its 60-satellite, 18.5 ton (~40,000 lb) Starlink launch debut. Assuming an average of 60 Starlink satellites per launch, SpaceX wants to begin serving customers in the US and Canada as soon as ~360 spacecraft are in orbit, a milestone that could occur as early as late 2019. Sometime in the first half of 2020 is arguably far more likely, but the fact alone that service could be offered in 2019 illustrates just how far SpaceX is ahead of its competitors, of which only OneWeb seems to pose an actual threat.

On February 27th, OneWeb launched its first six satellites – down from a planned ten, already ~20 satellites short of a ‘full’ launch – as a mix between its first orbital test and the first launch of operational spacecraft. OneWeb’s initial constellation will feature 648 satellites, potentially rising to 900 and eventually ~2000 in the years to come, pending commercial success and investor interest. The company currently has plans to begin a monthly launch campaign of ~20 Soyuz rockets no earlier than than August or September 2019, likely completing the first phase of its constellation sometime in 2021.

“OneWeb and its satellite manufacturing partner Airbus Defence and Space have crammed 10 gigabits per second of capacity into spacecraft the size of dishwashers. Tom Enders, Airbus Group’s outgoing CEO, said Feb. 14 that OneWeb satellites cost $1 million each to produce, and that the companies will be able to complete 350 to 400 satellites annually from their joint venture OneWeb Satellite’s $85 million Florida factory opening in April. The first batches of Florida-built satellites should be delivered to OneWeb toward the end of the third quarter, Airbus spokesman Guilhem Boltz said.”

SpaceNews, March 2019

Assuming SpaceX aims to launch one dedicated 60-satellite Starlink mission every 6-8 weeks, the company could easily have a constellation of more than 600 satellites in orbit by the end of 2020. Compared to OneWeb, each Starlink satellite weighs about 40% more (~150 kg vs. ~230 kg) but also offers almost double the usable throughput (~17-20 Gbps vs. OneWeb’s ~10 Gbps). In short, SpaceX should be able to offer the same capacity of coverage and service as soon – if not far sooner – than OneWeb, while constellation hopefuls like Telesat, LeoSat, and Amazon’s Project Kuiper are likely 2-5 years away from launching their first satellites, let alone offering service.

SpaceX’s foray into satellite design

Aside from revealing SpaceX’s tentative schedule for its Starlink service offerings, Starlink.com included excellent, surprisingly detailed renders of satellite hardware, ranging from Dragon-heritage star trackers to the world’s first flightworthy ion thrusters powered by krypton. These renders simply confirm what was already clear: SpaceX has gone against the grain of traditional satellite design at almost every turn, producing a bus (the general structure and form factor) that is unlike almost anything that came before it.

As a complete layperson to spacecraft design, it’s hard to describe SpaceX’s first internally designed satellite bus as anything less than elegant. Thanks to their uniquely flat form factor, the satellites can be packed into a Falcon 9 fairing with extreme efficiency, making SpaceX’s first dedicated Starlink launch the company’s heaviest payload ever at more than 18.5 tons (~40,000 lb). For comparison, OneWeb plans to launch approximately 30×150 kg satellites per Soyuz 2.1 launch with a traditional cylindrical adapter, itself weighing ~1000 kg.

For Starlink, the method the 60 satellites use to securely attach to each other remains a minor mystery, only hinted at by photos and renders that show three metal rings/connectors per satellite. However it works, it appears that SpaceX has found a way to launch and deploy dozens of fairly large spacecraft while wasting little to no mass on a dedicated dispenser. Altogether, it appears that SpaceX has already begun to surpass the technological capabilities of its competitors, while also taking large risks with highly innovative, largely unprecedented design choices. All of those characteristics will help as SpaceX pushes to deploy Starlink and begin serving customers as quickly as possible.

Check out Teslarati’s newsletters for prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket launch and recovery processes

Rivian has branded itself as a luxury electric vehicle-maker for outdoor enthusiasts, but auto industry analysts have recently seen another promising use for the company’s upcoming products: fleet vehicles.

The R1T has over 800 lb-ft of torque, nearly 1800 lbs of payload capacity, and the ability to tow around 11,000 lbs, making it a vehicle capable of serious work in nearly any industry currently utilizing trucks for business purposes in company fleets.

However, even Rivian’s largest battery pack, which boasts an impressive 400 miles of range, doesn’t quite meet the range expectations that truck customers expect from their gasoline and diesel-powered vehicles. This particular customer base, of course, isn’t Rivian’s immediate target as it first enters the market, but the Michigan-based car maker is already piquing broad interest in its vehicles, and industry professionals are taking note.

Not every potential Rivian truck customer will see limited mileage as a reason to choose diesel-power over battery-electric power, as predicted by some auto experts assessing the company’s market appeal. Companies whose travel needs are limited to short trips to job sites, for example, could put things like torque, load capacity, and fuel savings higher on the list of priorities than range for commuting. These are areas where Rivian’s R1T shines.

“EV pickups may best be suited for commercial fleets, such as those owned by energy companies,” Michelle Krebs, executive analyst for Autotrader, was quoted as saying by the Detroit Free Press (DFP). “Fleets operating in clearly defined areas, such as metro Detroit, could be ideal. Short distances and a good charging infrastructure might also make EV pickups practical for construction and mining companies.”

Pickup trucks make up the largest part of the vehicle market in the United States, accounting for nearly 3 million sales last year, meaning that a startup like Rivian has a lot to gain if it’s able to tap into the consumer base in a meaningful way. Amazon and Ford appear to have already seen the potential in Rivian’s electric skateboard platform via their combined $1.2 billion dollars investment in the company. Jeff Bezos, CEO of Amazon, recently commented about Rivian’s mission and voiced his support for the company.

“As with most of our major investments, and acquisitions, we’re always looking for mission-driven entrepreneurs — missionaries instead of mercenaries. And the guy who leads the company, a guy named R.J., is one of the most missionary entrepreneurs I’ve ever met,” Bezos said, referring to Rivian’s CEO R.J. Scaringe.

These kinds of positive assessments for all-electric trucks in the auto market would also carry over into Tesla’s future prospects as well for its truck. Admittedly, details surrounding the Blade Runner-inspired vehicle are sparse; however, CEO Elon Musk has mentioned possible stats that would offer incredible worksite capabilities. As teased, the Tesla Truck will have 400-500 miles of range per charge, dual motor AWD, a 240-volt connection for heavy-duty tools, and up to 300,000 pounds of towing capacity. The unveiling is said to take place later this year.

Both of Rivian’s vehicles – the R1T truck and the R1S SUV – are currently open for pre-order via the company’s website. Production and deliveries are anticipated to begin in 2020.

On the heels of a swelling debate among astronomers about the potential negative scientific impacts of constellations like Starlink, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk says that the company will “make sure [it] has no material effect on … astronomy.”

Additionally, Musk noted that he had already asked Starlink engineers to examine methods of reducing the albedo (i.e. reflectivity) as one potential upgrade for future satellites. Most importantly, however, the 60 satellites launched on March 23rd are just three days into their orbital debut. As the first flight of an entirely new SpaceX-built satellite bus, this is SpaceX’s first time ever attempting to launch or operate so many of its own spacecraft, and Starlink v0.9 is no less of an experiment for SpaceX than it is for unaffiliated observers.

SpaceX’s first 60 finalized Starlink satellites have only just begun the process of on-orbit checkouts and are likely no less than one or several weeks away from some form of commissioning, in which each spacecraft will begin seriously testing its payloads. At the moment, the satellites still need to climb to their final orbits (550 km vs. 450 km) with their own electric ion thrusters and have yet to begin anything resembling static operations.

Once they’ve fully circularized their orbits at 550 km, the 60 (hopefully) satellites can begin those commissioning procedures. This will likely be the first flight-test for a number of new SpaceX-built or designed technologies, ranging from wholly unproven hardware or improved variants of components from the Tintin era to the radically new form factor of the unflown Starlink bus. This includes as many as four in-house phased array antennas per satellite, described by Musk as some of the most advanced commercial antennas in the world.

More than “interference” protection

However, aside from Musk’s assurance that SpaceX would do everything it can to minimize or even entirely prevent interference with scientific research and science-critical astrophotography, the CEO also expressed awareness of the many potential ways Starlink could actually benefit astronomy and other space sciences. Most notably, what SpaceX has actually arrived at with Starlink v0.9 is an extraordinarily cheap, high-performance satellite bus capable of supporting significant payloads, be it high-throughput antennas or something more exotic.

That “something” could be fairly wide-reaching, including astrophysics payloads, radio instruments, lasers, cameras, and maybe even telescopes. Additionally, thanks to their relatively efficient and low-cost ion thrusters, individual Starlink satellites could even be capable of radically changing their orbits, potentially even escaping Earth and heading to destinations like the Moon, Mars, and near-Earth asteroids/comets. Musk has repeatedly raised the possibility of building and launching SpaceX’s own Starlink-based interplanetary spacecraft, a potentially revolutionary concept thanks to their low cost.

Despite the potential scientific value, the fact remains that space-based observatories are unlikely to fully match the ease, affordability, and accessibility of ground-based telescopes for scientific observations for decades, if ever. Until then, SpaceX thankfully sounds more than willing to cooperate closely with international science communities to mitigate or fully prevent the disruption of ongoing research.

Check out Teslarati’s newsletters for prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket launch and recovery processes

Just a handful of hours after SpaceX successfully placed all 60 of its first Starlink v0.9 satellites in orbit, ground observers began capturing and sharing spectacular nighttime views of the spacecraft. Soon after, fans and practitioners of astronomy and spaceflight began bickering.

The topic of concern: light pollution, not from lights on the ground but from sunlight-reflecting satellites in orbit. Immediately after launch, the ‘train’ of 60 Starlink satellites were undeniably spectacular, easily visible to the eye and as bright or brighter than the brightest stars in the sky. For the most part, reactions seemed to lean more towards awe than concern, but it didn’t take long for people to begin extrapolating from 60 satellites to Starlink’s peak of ~11,900 (an increase of 200X), and some responses began to paint SpaceX’s constellation in a more negative light.

Fans, communicators, and practitioners of astronomy quickly grew into the loudest voice in the room, as fans of SpaceX and Elon Musk started to engage, ultimately making it clear that low Earth orbit (LEO) megaconstellations could soon become a highly controversial topic for unexpected reasons. As is typical of humans in the age of social media, the gentlest hint of controversy and criticism swelled into stone-throwing between two crystallized sides unwilling to breathe and engage in civil debate.

Meanwhile, barely 24-48 hours had elapsed since the first Starlink satellite reached orbit – not their final orbit (550 km) but an insertion orbit at ~450 km. Almost immediately, serious observers noted that the Starlink satellites were rapidly spreading out and dimming as they got to work raising their orbits with onboard ion thrusters. Situated in an urban area, Teslarati photographer Tom Cross described the Starlink ‘train’ as “way too faint to capture” on the evening of May 25th, although they were still subtly visible to the naked eye.

From a practical perspective, it should come as little to no surprise that Starlink satellites are visible – even highly visible – from the ground, particularly in areas with minimal light pollution. SpaceX’s flat-panel design and the location of their antennas means that each satellite will have a metallic, shiny surface constantly facing towards the ground, perfect for reflecting sunlight. Additionally, every satellite has a fairly large solar array, likely measuring about 3m by 12m (10ft by 40 ft). Combined, the 60 satellites have a collective solar array area of more than 2000 square meters (21,500 ft^2), nearly the same size as the International Space Station’s football field-sized arrays.

Here’s a 30 second long exposure of #starlink satellites marching across the sky. I saw them, framed this up, and started it as quickly as I could so there is zero creativity or planning here but I GOT THEM! Aghhhh. @elonmusk — you seen your satellites overhead yet? pic.twitter.com/91KzFKOUq1

— 📸Trevor Mahlmann (@TrevorMahlmann) May 25, 2019

An astronomical disruption?

However, the visibility of SpaceX’s Starlink satellites for laypeople was never the most contentious concern or a leader of vitriolic responses. Rather, even if the ~12,000 proposed Starlink satellites are minimally visible to the naked eye, they will almost certainly still appear in the sort of long-exposure images used by astronomers to catalog, track, and better understand the universe. This is a reasonable concern and one that should come as little to no surprise, given that astronomy already deals with the thousands of operational and defunct satellites, rocket upper stages, and pieces of large space debris already in Earth orbit.

The problem with giant LEO constellations is that satellites in LEO can appear far brighter and far larger than the traditional geostationary satellites used to provide communications services. This is a critical benefit for the spacecraft, as geostationary distances (~36,000 km, 22,000 mi) create major latency (lag) problems for communications networks.

Will Starlink (alongside other constellations from Telesat, OneWeb, and LeoSat) destroy the night sky as we know it, ruining the perfectly untouched cosmos for the rest of eternity? Will Starlink immediately create a global utopia by affordably connecting every single human on Earth to the internet, all while being completely invisible and undetectable from the ground? No, no, no, and no. As with 99.99% of things, the reality will fall somewhere in the middle and its consequences and benefits will be far more grey than black and white.

Update: Elon Musk addresses the controversy over Starlink light pollution

As more levelheaded spaceflight fans and astronomers thankfully point out, we need to wait weeks – if not months or even years – to actually understand the potential impact LEO mega-constellations might have on science and society. It would likely be beneficial for SpaceX – thus far silent – to open a dialogue with those concerned about those potential impacts. It would also serve astronomy well to find ways to cope with space-based infrastructure meant to eventually benefit tens of millions to billions of people, ranging from astronomers themselves to underprivileged members of developing societies. To accept tradeoffs and make compromises is to be human.

Check out Teslarati’s newsletters for prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket launch and recovery processes

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (FCA) is making another strategic move to aid in its shift towards electrification, this time proposing a 50-50 merger with Renault that would make the joint venture the 3rd largest car manufacturer in the world with around 8.7 million annual sales.

The primary motivation for the deal is to split capital expenditure as both companies carry out their commitments to powertrain transitions, and FCA has estimated a $5.6 billion dollar cost savings to result from the merger. This move comes on the heels of an emissions credit deal with Tesla estimated to cost the Italian automaker over $1 billion dollars, and it doesn’t appear this expense will be affected by the merger in the short term.

Strict European Union (EU) emissions regulations led Tesla and FCA to enter into a vehicle pooling deal in April. Under the agreement, FCA will be counting Tesla’s zero-emissions fleet in its figures, allowing the company to lower its average CO2 output per vehicle. Both parties significantly benefit from the deal as FCA avoids EU penalties and Tesla receives monetary compensation. It also gives FCA extra time to work at its 5-year plan to move away from diesel and produce only all-electric and hybrid car models.

Fiat-Chrysler’s CEO Mike Manley previously estimated that 80% of FCA’s CO2 compliance would come from purchasing credits from Tesla in 2020 before falling to around 15 per cent in 2021. It’s not completely clear how Tesla’s emissions deal with FCA will be affected by a merger; however, as time is of the essence, very little may change, if at all. “If this merger proceeds, the creation of a new company could require more than a year,” Manley commented about the deal with Renault. If that’s the case, FCA would still need to meet EU regulation requirements in the meantime.

Beginning in 2020, 95% of automotive fleet-wide emissions in the EU must average under 95g of CO2 per kilometer, i.e., have a fuel efficiency of about 57 mpg for internal combustion vehicles. A Fiat-Renault merger would go well past this deadline, according to Manley, meaning FCA would still have to bear the cost burden of its deal with Tesla alone and on the original terms.

In 2021, full EU auto fleets must be compliant, and the penalties could add up to financial ruin for companies unable to meet the strict standards. FCA has been slower than its industry peers to adopt an electrification plan and needed to buy more time to carry out its strategy. The company’s efforts towards lower emissions will likely not manifest into enough production vehicles to avoid the EU fines by the impending deadline, leading to the deal with Tesla and representing another factor motivating the merger with Renault.

The terms of FCA’s proposed merger with Renault would give both auto makers equal representation on the combined board of directors, and shareholders would split the stocks equally. FCA further stated that no plant closures would result from the deal, although layoffs are still a question. Tesla, of course, is quite familiar with these types of changes that are necessary to completely uproot a century-old, gasoline-dominated industry in favor of one that’s more environmentally sustainable.