LNG: TESLARATI

Earlier today, Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) received yet another negative outlook from Wall Street. This time around, it was Barclays analyst Brian Johnson, who reduced his price target for TSLA to a very conservative $133 per share. According to the analyst, his low price target is due to demand for the Model 3 stagnating in the United States and the company lacking a path to significant profitability.

Such a conclusion, which is likely driven by Tesla’s lower-than-expected numbers in the first quarter, is shortsighted at best and flat-out inaccurate at worst. There is an elephant in the room with all the negativity surrounding Tesla’s capability to survive and thrive this year, and it comes in the form of a gargantuan factory whose shell was all but completed in the span of five months in Shanghai. Tesla is poised to start producing the Model 3 at Gigafactory 3 later this year, and this development could shift the winds back in the electric car maker’s favor.

The potential of Gigafactory 3 or the advantages it could give Tesla has been strangely absent in a notable number of critical analysis surrounding the electric car maker as of late. Considering the negative narrative surrounding Tesla and Elon Musk today, this is no surprise. Tesla critics appear to have largely dismissed Gigafactory 3’s progress, as exhibited by skeptics describing the site mostly as a pile of dirt with some digging going on (videos of which are still being distributed today). Such statements have not been accurate since work took off in the Gigafactory 3 site.

Refusing to acknowledge Gigafactory 3’s impending operations, or discounting its capability to help Tesla’s numbers, could be a grave mistake for the company’s critics. Industry experts that actually deal with China on a regular basis, after all, have expressed their belief that Model 3s produced in Gigafactory 3 will be no joke. Take Michael Dunne, the CEO of consultancy firm ZoZo Go, for example. In a recent appearance at Autoline This Week, Dunne noted that Gigafactory 3’s presence would most definitely be a difference maker for Tesla.

“(They’re the) first foreign company to be allowed to own 100% of their operation. They’re in Shanghai. Shanghai will want to make sure they’re a success. The government will make sure that they’ve got their plant built in time and they have everything working. And on top of it all, Chinese consumers really do like the Tesla brand and really admire Elon Musk. So you’ve got a premium market — 2 million units a year — you have the government wanting electrics to succeed, and you’ve got a very strong American brand. So they’d be one to bet on,” Dunne said.

Dunne’s points are largely missed by the persistent “no demand” narrative surrounding Tesla in the United States today. It should be noted that Dunne holds a notable amount of experience with China’s automotive sector, as well, making him an authority on the subject. And it’s not just Dunne either. Automotive teardown expert Sandy Munro, who quite literally analyzed every nut and bolt in the Model 3, previously noted that Elon Musk could make a “gazillion bucks” in China if Tesla sets up Gigafactory 3’s production systems right. “I guarantee it,” Munro said during an appearance at Autoline After Hours. Munro later remarked that a Standard Model 3 produced in Gigafactory 3 could generate 25% gross margins for Tesla.

If there are any valid concerns about Tesla’s Gigafactory 3 operations, it would be on the electric car maker’s capability to set up the facility on time for its target initial vehicle production date, not on the market’s demand for the vehicle. Contrary to what analysts such as Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas have noted (Jonas recently pointed out during an investor call that Tesla is no longer a growth story, and that it is more of a “distressed credit and restructuring story”), it appears that there is still much growth left for the company. It’s just not happening in the United States at present. Between the statements of the Morgan Stanley analyst, who likely looks at the company’s short-term numbers, and Michael Dunne, who is immersed in China’s automotive sector by trade, one would likely be inclined to believe the latter.

Just as Tesla stock experienced a steep drop due to a perfect storm of lower-than-expected Q1 deliveries, negative analyst sentiments, misinformation, and sheer bad luck (such as the company’s delivery troubles in China during the first quarter), the electric car maker might be poised to experience yet another perfect storm with the impending completion of Gigafactory 3. With the Chinese government rooting for its success, and with customers in the country still perceiving the company and its vehicles in a positive light, the electric car maker’s made-in-China Model 3 push might prove once more that it is never wise to underestimate Tesla, and Elon Musk for that matter.

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

Tesla recently held a special job fair in Lingang China, to hire the first wave of frontline employees of Gigafactory 3. The job fair, which was aimed at hiring employees for 25 different positions under six departments, was a huge success, with Tesla receiving a massive number of applications from interested job-seekers.

Posts from Chinese social media showed that Tesla seemed to have received far too many applications for its open job listings. The electric car maker initially scheduled the special Gigafactory 3 job fair to conclude at 4 p.m. local time, but due to the number of job-seekers, Tesla ended up accepting applications until three hours after the expected deadline, at 7 p.m. local time.

Reports from electric car enthusiasts in China have noted that Tesla is recently experiencing what appears to be a smear campaign in Chinese social media, similar to what the company is experiencing in the United States. Despite this, Tesla’s name and brand appear to be intact among China’s job-seekers, as indicated by the massive turnout of the company’s special job fair.

The initial posts that were opened for Gigafactory 3 suggest that the company is about to start setting up the factory for Model 3 production later this year. This was hinted at by the departments that Tesla was filling in with the job fair, which includes the stamping workshop, welding shop, paint shop, and vehicle assembly. Job listings for posts such as squad leaders and equipment repair technicians further add to the idea that the company is poised to start fitting Gigafactory 3 with electric car manufacturing equipment soon.

This week has seen Tesla introduce a string of clever teasers in China, each one being designed to raise awareness and excitement for the impending arrival of the locally-made Model 3, which will be produced in Gigafactory 3. Following a cryptic teaser on Monday, a price guessing game on Tuesday, and the announcement of Model 3 pre-orders on Wednesday, Tesla has rolled out yet another social media teaser on Thursday, which seems to be an encore to Tuesday’s guessing game.

Tesla’s Gigafactory 3 has risen in Shanghai at an unprecedented pace. When Elon Musk attended the event’s groundbreaking ceremony last January, the entire Gigafactory 3 site was but a muddy field, attracting mockery from the company’s critics. By mid-March, construction workers inaugurated the electric car production facility’s first pillar. Thanks to 24/7 work and the capability of China’s workforce to operate in an almost surgical manner, a nearly complete factory shell now stands in the Gigafactory 3 site, just two and a half months after the first pillar was set up.

A recently leaked email from Tesla CEO Elon Musk has revealed that the electric car maker is seeing strong demand for its vehicles, though it would have to catch up to deliveries if it were to be definitively successful this quarter. Musk further noted that he would be holding regular calls with delivery teams from the United States, Asia, and Europe, to understand what is needed to optimize vehicle deliveries even more.

Below is the full text of Elon Musk’s recent email to Tesla employees.

Demand is strong – Elon writes in a new email 😉 $TSLAQ pic.twitter.com/u8FVkmRyjR

— Aziz Saba (@Saba_Capital) May 29, 2019

To: Everybody

While our demand is strong, we have a lot of vehicle deliveries to catch up to in order to have a successful quarter.

Starting tomorrow, I will be holding skip-level calls with America, Asia, and Europe delivery teams every 2 days to understand what’s needed to accelerate the rate of deliveries.

We also need to address the total cost of getting a car from our factory to the customer. Last quarter, there were many expedites (sic) fees and routing inefficiencies that led to higher than expected delivery costs. This makes it much harder for Tesla ro (sic) break even.

Per my earlier email, if we execute well, Q2 will be an all-time record for Tesla vehicle deliveries and an awesome victory!!

Super excited to make this happen with you.

Elon

Musk’s emphasis on accelerating deliveries and adopting efficiencies to get vehicles to customers faster suggests that Tesla is dead serious about avoiding the same pitfalls it encountered in the first quarter. During Q1 2019, Tesla’s deliveries experienced difficulties as the company began saturating international markets with the Model 3. This ultimately caused Tesla to engage in an intense delivery blitz in March that ended with over 10,000 vehicles in transit at the end of the first quarter.

This recently leaked email all but highlights a point mentioned by Musk in a previous message to employees, where he noted that Tesla is seeing strong demand for its electric cars this quarter. In that email, Musk pointed out that Tesla is on track to exceed its record delivery figures from Q4 2019, a quarter that saw the company deliver over 90,000 vehicles to customers. Nevertheless, Musk noted that to accomplish this, Tesla would have to hit a sustained Model 3 production rate of 1,000 units per day.

These recently leaked updates from the Tesla CEO refutes one of the most persistent bear thesis against the company, which suggests that its vehicles are seeing an alleged “demand cliff.” If Musk’s internal emails are any indication, it appears that Tesla’s electric cars remain popular among consumers despite the company’s lower-than-expected figures in the first quarter.

Tesla has revealed that it will be opening pre-orders for locally-made Model 3 in China starting this Friday, May 31, 2019. The announcement was posted on the electric car maker’s official Weibo account, and it included a teaser image of a Tesla Model 3 facing the nearly complete factory shell of Gigafactory 3.

Tesla’s Weibo pre-order announcement included a short history of the company’s vehicles over the years, from the original Tesla Roadster to the Tesla Model 3. Following is a rough translation of Tesla’s Weibo post for its Chinese customers on Wednesday.

“In 2008, Tesla’s first electric car, the Roadster, was officially released. Its record-breaking acceleration, performance, cruising range, and driving performance proved to the world that electric vehicles could be superior to traditional internal combustion engines.

“In 2012, Tesla launched the Model S, a pure electric luxury sedan, with its 17” touchscreen becoming an industry-leading design. In addition, the elegant shape and performance of the Model S completely overturned the expectations of the 21st-century car.

“In 2015, Model X landed on the market with an uncompromising attitude, perfecting a high-performance, safe, and intelligent SUV, and it was awarded by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) with a 5-Star Safety Rating.

“In 2017, the more intimate Model 3 impressed countless consumers with its future-oriented design and excellent driving, and it became the US luxury car champion in 2018. May 31, 2019 – Made in China Model 3 will open soon. Expecting to meet you.”

Tesla has hinted at an announcement for the locally-made Model 3 over the past few days. On Monday, Tesla enthusiasts in China were saturated by a cryptic teaser that included the words 储势,待发 (roughly translates to “building up momentum, getting ready to launch”) and a date (May 31, 2019). The company did not provide any other details about its teaser, though it provided a follow-up the next day.

On Tuesday, Tesla released another teaser in the form of a fun Model 3 guessing game. The rules of the game were simple. From a set of hint numbers, Tesla fans were asked to guess and decode the list price of locally-produced Model 3. A report from Bloomberg which cited a source familiar with the matter suggested that Tesla will likely price the China-made Model 3 between 300,000 RMB ($43,400) and 350,000 yuan ($50,600) before subsidies.

Tesla’s decision to open pre-orders for China’s locally made Model 3 on May 31, 2019, is a bold move for the electric car maker. For one, it could result in some potential Model 3 buyers holding out for the arrival of the more affordable versions that will be coming out of Gigafactory later this year. This also puts incredible pressure on the company to get Gigafactory 3 ready for production as early as possible.

Optimistic estimates for Gigafactory 3’s initial Model 3 production suggest that the first vehicles could be manufactured in the Shanghai-based plant as early as September, though a long list of pre-orders for the domestic Model 3 will likely push the company to go for an even more aggressive timetable. Nevertheless, such a strategy will keep the Model 3 and Tesla visible to Chinese consumers, which would most likely benefit the electric car maker.

Gigafactory 3 is expected to produce the affordable versions of the Model 3 and Model Y for the Chinese market. By doing so, Tesla would be able to compete in China’s fast-growing and lucrative electric car segment using vehicles that are more competitive in price against offerings from local electric car companies.

Tesla shares (NASDAQ:TSLA) received a vote of confidence on Tuesday, as Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch gave an optimistic $437 price target for the electric car maker. The analyst also reiterated his “Outperform” rating for TSLA stock.

Rusch noted that while Tesla shares have plummeted on concerns such as the ongoing US-China trade war and the speculation that demand for its vehicles is decreasing, the electric car maker’s stocks are, at their current state, “oversold.” The Oppenheimer analyst nonetheless stated that Tesla would need to show a strong sell-through in critical markets while improving gross margins to recover from its steep dive.

Also adding to Rusch’s bullish stance on Tesla is the underwhelming nature of competitors that are currently emerging from rival automakers. The emergence of competitors in the premium electric vehicle market is among the key pillars of the TSLA bear thesis, though recent offerings such as the Audi e-tron have largely failed to live up to the standard of Tesla’s vehicles. The e-tron, for example, received an EPA rating of 204 miles per charge from its 95 kWh battery, making it far less efficient than the larger Model X, whose 75 kWh variant is EPA rated for 237 miles per charge.

Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch’s positive stance on TSLA stock stands opposite that of Cowen analyst Jeff Osborne, who recently dropped his price target for Tesla shares from $150 to $140 per share. In a note to clients, Osborne, who has held a longtime Sell rating on TSLA, stated that the company’s stock price is beginning to reflect the “lower demand picture in 2020 that we have been forecasting for some time.”

Osborne also noted that there is more room for downside as the “steady state of demand become evident in Q3 2019 when the backlog of lower-priced standard range plus Model 3 is exhausted in Europe and China.”

Tesla shares have been beaten down in recent weeks due to a perfect storm involving multiple bearish takes from Wall Street analysts, the ongoing US-China trade war, a general decline in the auto industry as reflected by the Q1 numbers of veteran automakers such as Jaguar Land Rover and BMW, and the aftermath of the company’s lower-than-expected deliveries and production in the first quarter. Nevertheless, while sentiments on Tesla are currently negative, the electric car maker might make a notable comeback in the second quarter.

In a leaked email from CEO Elon Musk, it was revealed that Tesla might be on track to beat its record 90,700 deliveries in the fourth quarter of 2018, provided that the company could sustain an output of 1,000 Model 3 per day. The leaked email also noted that as of May 21, Tesla has over 50,000 net new orders for the second quarter, further suggesting that the company’s figures for Q2 might pleasantly surprise.

As of writing, Tesla shares are trading -0.31% at $190.01 per share.

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.