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Tesla Supercharger V3 rollout will prioritize long-distance routes, says Elon Musk

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Posted on June 3, 2019


Tesla’s Version 3 (V3) Superchargers will first begin rolling out in locations used for long-distance travel, according to an update provided by CEO Elon Musk. He additionally revealed during a recent interview on Ride the Lightning, a weekly podcast hosted by Ryan McCaffrey, that first generation Superchargers will also be prioritized for replacement.

“We’ll focus on long-distance routes, so if you’re in a hurry to get from one city to another, you can go as fast as possible. Then also, we’re replacing some of the Version 1 Superchargers – some of the old Superchargers will take priority,” Musk detailed. “There are some out there that still charge at 75 kW, so we’ll replace those first on long-distance routes.”

Despite Tesla’s open patents for utilizing its Supercharger technology and declared willingness to allow other manufacturers to access its network, Musk said that he hasn’t yet been contacted yet about sharing its facilities and technology. “Nobody’s contacted me, so…Maybe they’ve contacted other people at the company and they haven’t mentioned it to me. But, none of the other manufacturers have contacted me and said that they want to use it,” he explained.

Tesla Supercharger V3 stalls being constructed at the LA Design Center in March 2019.
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Tesla does have preconditions for sharing its Supercharger Network, though, which may be part of the reluctance to taking the all-electric car maker up on its offer. “We do require that the car be able to charge at a high rate and then obviously share in the cost of the system,” Musk said. “Probably…we will get some takers down the road, but they don’t seem to be particularly interested right now.”

On the topic of developing its Supercharger Network, Tesla’s CEO also explained that the company tries to stay ahead of demand and avoid congestion, but empty Supercharger stations are not in the company’s best interest, either. Also, business permits can slow down expansion efforts despite Tesla’s best efforts to meet its customers’ charging needs. Overall, it’s a balancing act between congestion and freedom to travel.

The V3 Supercharger was unveiled in March this year at Tesla’s factory in Fremont, California where the first (beta) stalls are located. The V3 Superchargers are able to charge twice as fast the Version 2 (V2) with a maximum power output of 250 kW, or 1,000 miles per hour. Additionally, Tesla owners using V3 Superchargers will no longer need to split power with neighboring vehicles, thereby substantially increasing the charge rate and reducing the overall amount of charging time by nearly half.

In Tesla’s first annual report to New York’s Empire State Development Corp., the company announced that a new manufacturing line for the electrical components of Supercharger V3 stations were added at Gigafactory 2 in New York. The facility was originally designed to produce Tesla’s Solar Roof tiles, which look like conventional roofing material but are capable of functioning like solar panels. Given Tesla’s aggressive expansion of its Supercharger Network, this move towards expanded capability is indicative of plans for a quick rollout of its latest charging technology.

Listen to Ryan McCaffrey’s interview with Elon Musk here.

Tesla Supercharger V3 rollout will prioritize long-distance routes, says Elon Musk


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Tesla’s entire Model S and X inventory to get Free Unlimited Supercharging

Simon Alvarez

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Posted on May 31, 2019


Tesla has announced that all of its inventory Model S and Model X today will be granted with Free Unlimited Supercharging, a perk that was previously retired when the electric car maker ended its long-running Referral Program. The Free Unlimited Supercharging offer will run until June 30, the end of the second quarter.

The update was posted on the company’s official Twitter handle. “Important Announcement (unless you like paying for gas): All inventory Model S and Model X cars now come with unlimited free Supercharging. This ends on June 30,” Tesla wrote.

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Free Unlimited Supercharging is among the perks offered by Tesla to electric car owners for years, eventually becoming a trademark feature of the flagship Model S and Model X amidst the ramp of the higher-volume Model 3. It was also one of the rewards in Tesla’s retired Referral Program, which involved large prizes such as the next-generation Roadster. Eventually, and as Tesla’s fleet of vehicles grew, Elon Musk explained that Free Unlimited Supercharging was not really sustainable at volume production.

“Sorry, it’s not really sustainable at volume production & doesn’t incent optimal behavior. We probably should have ended this earlier,” Musk noted.

The offer did make a comeback when Tesla relaunched its Referral Program earlier this year, but instead of unlimited Supercharger credits, the company offered 1,000 miles of free Supercharging in its place. An update to the program later increased this to 5,000 miles until May 28.

Free Unlimited Supercharging might seem like a rather minor benefit back when it was readily available, but today, the merits of the offer are incredibly prominent. As Tesla’s fleet of vehicles grows at an unprecedented pace, and as access to the company’s charging stations get more constrained, Free Unlimited Supercharging will likely become a rare commodity.

This advantage will likely be even more prominent amidst the improvements that Tesla is rolling out to its Supercharger Network, such as the recently rolled-out 150 kW peak charge rates for the Model S and Model X in its V2 network. With these optimizations in place, Supercharging stops will translate to even less time off the road. These improvements will likely make long road trips more convenient for Model S and X owners, and not having to pay for charging will make these journeys even better.  

Browse Tesla’s inventory Model S and Model X here.

Tesla’s entire Model S and X inventory to get Free Unlimited Supercharging


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Tesla’s China website gets overwhelmed due to Giga 3-made Model 3 pre-orders

Simon Alvarez

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Posted on May 31, 2019


Earlier today, Tesla China revealed the price of the Model 3 Standard Range Plus variant that will be produced in Gigafactory 3. Starting at RMB 328,000 (~$47,400), the locally-made vehicle is RMB 49,000 (~$7,000) cheaper than the US-made Model 3 SR+’s price, which was listed at RMB 377,000 (~$54,500). The savings for the locally-made vehicle are significant, though Tesla noted that the expected delivery time for the Gigafactory 3-produced electric sedan is 6-10 months.

While the price of the Made-in-China Model SR+ still puts the vehicle in the same price range as that of competitors like the BMW 3 Series and Mercedes-Benz C-Class (the China-made versions of which are also sold at around the RMB 330,000 or ~$47,700 range), the electric sedan from Silicon Valley has notable advantages in the way that customers would save on license taxes and fees. Rated at 460 km (285 miles) per charge under NEDC standards, Tesla’s Gigafactory 3-produced Model 3 will likely be the company’s bang-for-your-buck vehicle for the Chinese market.

Immediately after pre-orders opened, Tesla enthusiasts in China noticed that the company’s official website was significantly getting slower. It did not take long before Tesla’s official Weibo account posted an update apologizing for the slowdowns in its official site. According to the electric car maker, the first order for the Made-in-China Model 3 was completed within 3 minutes after reservations were opened, and more orders followed soon after.

“The first order (was) completed within 3 minutes of the reservation opening. Due to extreme high demand of the Chinese-made Model 3 on the official website of Tesla, the traffic is too large; please be patient. Or please visit stores,” Tesla wrote.

Eventually, Tesla’s China website seemingly got overwhelmed with traffic, displaying 404 errors for users attempting to access the site. Tesla enthusiast @arcandrally, who tried to access the Model 3 configurator in China, observed that Tesla.cn started diverting online traffic to experience stores as a temporary solution.

While a number of Chinese social media users expressed their disappointment at the higher-than-expected starting price of the Gigafactory 3-produced Model 3, the vehicle’s launch was nonetheless met with widespread support from the Tesla and electric car community. Overall, it appears that the large amounts of traffic that drowned Tesla China’s website shows but a hint of the interest surrounding the vehicle from the country’s car buying public.

At the center of Tesla’s push in China with the locally-made Model 3 is Gigafactory 3, whose factory shell is now all but complete. Following the construction of the factory shell, the facility is set to undergo ground hardening in June. These will be followed by pipeline communication, equipment stationing, equipment commissioning, and trial production runs, which could start as early as September barring any unexpected issues.

Tesla’s China website gets overwhelmed due to Giga 3-made Model 3 pre-orders


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SpaceX’s next Falcon Heavy hits milestone as final rocket parts arrive in Florida

Eric Ralph

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Posted on May 31, 2019


SpaceX has reached a critical milestone on the road to Falcon Heavy’s third flight: all major parts of the rocket – three boosters, an interstage, and a payload fairing – are now officially on-site at the company’s Pad 39A launch facilities.

This means that all that stands between SpaceX, the USAF, and the critical mission is the integration of the hardware into one vehicle, as well as the integration and encapsulation of all 24 customer satellites in the Falcon payload fairing. As noted by the USAF Space and Missile Systems Center (SMC), Falcon Heavy’s Space Test Program-2 (STP-2) mission will be exceptionally challenging and important for SpaceX for a variety of reasons.

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Falcon Heavy: The Upper Stagening

Although the general performance of the three first stage boosters will be absolutely critical, the US Air Force’s STP-2 mission manages to cram in several additional major goals. First and foremost, all eyes will be on SpaceX’s Falcon upper stage (S2). Scheduled to last no less than several hours, the upper stage will be put through its paces like never before, requiring four separate ignitions and shutoffs of its Merlin Vacuum engine. For SpaceX, this may be the first time the company has ever attempted the feat – if any on-orbit testing has been done after completing customer missions, SpaceX has never commented on it.

Back in February 2018, Falcon Heavy’s launch debut also happened to mark the first flight-test of a true long-duration upper stage coast and third ignition, a spectacular success that sent Starman and a Tesla Roadster into a heliocentric orbit that now reaches beyond Mars. As such, SpaceX will by no means be walking into the challenges of STP-2 unprepared. In fact, the coast required on Flight 1 may have technically been more challenging than any one of the four separate burns S2 will need to perform on STP-2. However, combining the need to do all four burns and deployments rather quickly and in sequence, the critical need for accurate orbital insertions, and high standards of reliability and mission assurance expected by the USAF, STP-2 will easily be the hardest mission SpaceX has yet to attempt.

SpaceX's Falcon Heavy debut likely relied in part upon Tesla battery tech for second stage's nearly six hour-long coast before sending Starman beyond Earth orbit. (SpaceX)
SpaceX’s first Falcon Heavy launch also happened to be a strategic and successful test of Falcon upper stage coast capabilities. (SpaceX)

If SpaceX succeeds, the benefits will stretch far beyond simply satisfying an Air Force requirement and securing the USAF’s Falcon Heavy certification. Once SpaceX has rigorously demonstrated the reliability of Falcon 9’s upper stage for long coasts and high numbers of ignition events, the company will be able to apply that as a marketable product. Potential customers include the usual communications satellite operators desiring a direct-to-GEO insertion, saving time (and thus making money faster) by skipping the orbit-raising that comes with easier transfer orbits.

One major use-case – as demonstrated by Falcon Heavy’s interplanetary launch debut – is sending payloads beyond Earth orbit, a capability that NASA would undoubtedly take advantage of.

Reusability makes a surprise entrance

But wait, there’s more! In a predictable but still largely unexpected turn of events, the Air Force has also selected Falcon Heavy’s STP-2 mission as an opportunity to gain familiarity with the rocket reusability SpaceX is famous for. Falcon Heavy’s second mission and commercial launch debut – Arabsat 6A – used three all-new Block 5 boosters, two of which returned to land after gentle recoveries. Known as B1052 and B1053, the lightly-used boosters are now scheduled to become the first flight-proven orbital-class rockets launched on a Department of Defense (DoD) mission in 25 years, since the Space Shuttle’s final military mission in 1992.

If successful, SpaceX will help pave the way for the US military to seriously adopt reusable rockets and develop the “certification” procedures needed to do so. This will benefit all prospective US launch providers, not just SpaceX, but SpaceX will likely be the only company flying valuable payloads on flight-proven rockets until Blue Origin and ULA’s Vulcan achieve flight-proven certification for military launches. Much like regular certification often requires multiple launch demonstrations, flight-proven certification will likely be at least as – if not more – stringent. For New Glenn, that milestone might come as early as 2023-2025, while Vulcan – if a reusable engine section is ever actually implemented – is unlikely to even complete its launch debut – let alone first reuse – before 2025.

As such, SpaceX is quite literally half a decade ahead of its prospective competitors when it comes to certifying flight-proven rockets for high-value launches. Additionally, just the act of the USAF completing its development of a reusability certification process will likely encourage – if not directly lay the foundation for – NASA to seriously consider doing the same with its own launch services.

Check out Teslarati’s newsletters for prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket launch and recovery processes

SpaceX’s next Falcon Heavy hits milestone as final rocket parts arrive in Florida


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Tesla’s approach to battery technology keeps it ahead in the EV industry

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Posted on May 31, 2019


Tesla’s dominance in the growing electric vehicle (EV) industry is largely attributed to its unique approach to its battery technology. The engineering behind the all-electric car maker’s cylindrical cells speaks for itself in terms of the performance and range achieved, but in a recent interview with a battery technology researcher, a few things detailed about Tesla’s batteries stood out in particular.

Ravindra Kempaiah is a Ph.D. scholar at the University of Illinois Chicago focusing on advanced battery materials for his thesis. In his interview with Tesla owner and host of All Things EV, Sean Mitchell, Kempaiah explained lithium-ion technology in EVs and the primary issues faced in their development. Overall, the biggest challenge is balancing the three main components in battery production: energy density, cost, and cycle life. Increasing one area will significantly impact the other, and the ideal equation is always being sought after. For example, if you increase energy density for higher range and lower cost, the cycle life takes a major hit. If you increase density and life cycle, the battery alone can cost as much as $100k, as described by Kempaiah.

“We always want more range. We always want higher cycle life. We want our batteries to last 15-20 years and the car to go 500 miles, but this is a problem every battery scientist has faced for the last 30 years,” Kempaiah commented in the interview.

Tesla deals with the same balancing act as other battery-electric car makers; however, there are key factors which seem to have kept the company ahead in the industry.

An overview of the different types of battery cells for electric vehicles. | Image: Ravindra Kempaiah via Sean Mitchell/YouTube
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First, Tesla’s choice of cylindrical cells sets it apart from every other electric vehicle on the market. This provides several advantages that drive performance, flexibility, and cost control. Notably, Rivian is also using cylindrical cells, although their vehicles are not yet under production.

Out of the three types of cells available (cylindrical, prismatic, and pouch cells), cylindrical is the most cost-effective to produce. Namely, the cost per kWh is lower in cylindrical cells versus other types. The metallic jacket around the 18650 and 2170 cylindrical cells used in the Tesla Model S/X and Model 3, respectively, acts as scaffolding and provides structural rigidity to the battery. Additionally, in high powered situations, current draw and distribution of power is over the entirety of the battery pack instead of concentrated in a certain section, according to Kempaiah.

Second, Tesla uses a liquid-cooled thermal management system to manage battery temperatures whereas other automakers take a more economical air cooling approach. By adjusting the temperature of the battery pack, Tesla is able to ensure that cells are operating in their most efficient and optimal states, thereby maximizing battery longevity as well as performance. While reducing cost is an important factor in accelerating the growth of the electric vehicle market, Tesla’s investment in thermal management technology provides an upside for owners who may be looking for longevity and long-term affordability of their cars.

A slide describing the Effect of high temperature and high voltage on electric vehicles. | Image: Ravindra Kempaiah via Sean Mitchell/YouTube

Third, Tesla has actively sought to limit the amount of cobalt it uses in its batteries and already uses less of the element than other companies in the Model 3 batteries. The scarcity of cobalt and its mining sources have subjected it to socioeconomic situations that are more than problematic in the United States, i.e., child labor and similar abuses are widespread in its sourcing. With this in mind, Tesla has been working on the question, “Is cobalt really needed?”

Cobalt is used as a cathode in battery technology, and out of all cathode materials available, it has the highest cost both fiscally and politically. Current consensus on battery technology says that without cobalt, the structural integrity and cycle life in batteries is compromised, as described in the interview. However, some recent scientific literature was cited by Kempaiah that indicated higher nickel content limited the impact of cobalt on batteries, possibly removing the need to use it at all. Nickel is more widely available across the globe, which keeps its cost down and mitigates the socioeconomic impacts often associated with resource mining operations. Overall, the discussion between Mitchell and Kempaiah indicated that Tesla can probably go cobalt-free soon, making it less vulnerable to the cobalt industry.

Finally, Tesla takes great care to educate its customers about proper battery maintenance, especially with regard to the negative impact of bad charging habits. Specifically, keeping an electric car battery charged at 100% for long periods degrades the battery very quickly, while keeping charging states within an optimal range will give it a long life. Tesla makes it a point to communicate to customers the importance of battery health on their overall ownership experience and value of their purchase.

When asked for his opinion by Mitchell, Kempaiah attributed the lack of education by other brands as a disconnect between engineering teams and marketing teams. While battery “best practices” are provided to EV customers by all manufacturers, the importance of communicating the true impact of bad charging habits may not be emphasized enough to be included as prominently as it should.

In summary, Tesla is constantly developing the technology in its vehicles, and its particular attention to its batteries looks to have given the company a significant advantage over its competitors. Perhaps other automakers will take a few tips from Tesla in the future, even if it’s as limited as improving communications with customers.

Watch Sean Mitchell’s full interview with Ravindra Kempaiah below:

Tesla’s approach to battery technology keeps it ahead in the EV industry


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Tesla is preparing Fremont factory for Model Y, Model S refresh production: report

Simon Alvarez

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Posted on May 29, 2019


Tesla is reportedly refitting parts of its Fremont factory in CA to make way for the upcoming production of the Model Y and a Model S refresh, which will feature an updated interior that is similar to that of the Model 3. The updates were related by a number of current and former Tesla employees, according to a recent report from CNBC.

The publication’s sources claim that Tesla is only beginning to place orders for the machinery required to manufacture the Model Y. It should be noted that neither Tesla nor CEO Elon Musk has confirmed that the Model Y will indeed be produced in the Fremont factory. The idea even seemed to have been shot down by Musk at one point last year, when he stated that site was already “packed to the gills” with the Model S, Model X, and Model 3 lines.

In order to make way for the Model Y, Tesla is reportedly looking to combine Model S and Model X production into a single line. This should allow the electric car maker to accommodate the new production facilities for the Model Y.

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Apart from Model Y production in Fremont, the publication’s sources also claim that the electric car maker is preparing to roll out an interior refresh for the Model S that will give it the same minimalistic theme as the Model 3. The sources further noted that the refreshed Model S would utilize the same drive units and seats as the higher-end Model 3, as well as a battery pack that is capable of delivering up to 400 miles of range in a single charge.

Initial production for the Tesla Model S refresh will reportedly start sometime September, according to CNBC’s sources. Tesla, for its part, has declined to issue a comment.

An interior refresh for the Model S has been expected by the Tesla community for some time, mainly as the electric car maker appears to be moving towards the Model 3’s design theme, as shown in the interior of the Model Y, the Tesla Semi, and even (up to a point) the next-generation Roadster. With the Model S being given a refreshed interior, it would likely be only a matter of time before the Model X gets the same treatment as well.

Tesla appears to be set on starting the production of the Model Y as early as possible. Elon Musk noted during the vehicle’s unveiling that the all-electric SUV would enter production sometime next year. If Fremont is already being prepared for the arrival of the SUV, this timeframe could be accelerated. Together with a refreshed Model S, having the Model Y start production late this year or even early next year should help Tesla boost the demand for its vehicles even more.

Tesla is preparing Fremont factory for Model Y, Model S refresh production: report


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Tesla’s built-in cameras help police return convicted felon behind bars

Simon Alvarez

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Posted on May 30, 2019


Law enforcement officers in Berkeley, CA who were investigating a series of car burglaries recently made a breakthrough in the case, thanks to some help from a rather unexpected crime-fighting tool: a Tesla. Thanks to images captured by the electric car, Berkeley police were able to identify the burglar, who turned out to be a more notorious than expected.

In early April, a Tesla parked near Ashby and College avenues was broken into. Fortunately for the vehicle, it had Sentry Mode enabled, which allowed the electric car to record footage from its suite of cameras. The Tesla managed to capture a clear image of the perpetrator who committed the burglary, and the owner of the electric car wasted no time turning the picture over to the police.

The Tesla was only one of several vehicles that have been burglarized in the area. When law enforcement officials looked at the picture of the thief, they were surprised to see a familiar face. At the captured image was Derrick Conerly, a felon convicted of rape who was currently out on parole. As part of his parole’s terms, Conerly was required to wear a GPS ankle monitor, which documents his movements.

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Byron White, an officer from Berkeley PD, noted that Conerly’s picture was the break they needed to determine a suspect for the string of car burglaries. “On April 3, we had a reported auto burglary, where a suspect broke into a Tesla. That vehicle recorded the suspect’s image. In this particular instance, the suspect is known to police from prior contacts,” White said in a statement to NBC Bay Area.  

Thanks to this breakthrough, the Berkeley police were able to connect the convicted felon to the burglaries. It did not take long before the law enforcement officers tracked down and arrested Conerly. The convicted felon is now back behind bars.

Tesla’s Sentry Mode has helped solve several burglary and vandalism cases over the previous months. Among these are a blatant act of aggression against a Model 3 which saw two men keying and denting the electric sedan, as well as a brazen burglary that happened in San Francisco. What is particularly impressive is that these safety features were introduced by Tesla to electric car owners through an over-the-air update, completely free of charge.

Tesla has also been rolling out optimizations for Sentry Mode. Among these include location-based activation, cool voice commands such as the Rick and Morty-inspired “Keep Summer Safe,” and the capability to automatically engage the security system once the vehicle is on Park. Considering Tesla’s habit of continually innovating its cars, it would not be surprising if more optimizations to Sentry Mode would be introduced in the near future.

Tesla’s built-in cameras help police return convicted felon behind bars


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Eric Ralph · May 28th, 2019

Welcome to the latest edition of DeepSpace! Each week Teslarati space reporter Eric Ralph hand-crafts this newsletter to give you a breakdown of what’s happening in the space industry and what you need to know. To receive this newsletter (and others) directly and join our member-only Slack group, give us a 3-month trial for just $5.

On May 27th, the European Space Agency (ESA) published updated renders of a proposed spacecraft, called the Earth Return Orbiter (ERO). ERO would be the last of four critical elements of a joint NASA-ESA Mars sample return mission, meant to return perhaps 1-5 kg (2-11 lb) of Martian samples to scientists on Earth. In a best-case scenario, such a sample return is unlikely to happen before the tail-end of the 2020s and will probably slip well into the 2030s, barring any unexpected windfalls of funding or political support.

Enter SpaceX, a private American company developing Starship/Super Heavy – a massive, next-generation launch vehicle – with the goal of landing dozens of tons of cargo and just as many humans on Mars as few as 5-10 years from now. The radically different approaches of SpaceX and NASA/ESA are bound to produce equally different results, while both are expected to cost no less than $5B-$10B to be fully realized. What gives?

The high price of guaranteed success

  • As proposed, the Mars sample return mission will be an extraordinary technical challenge.
    • At a minimum, the current approach involves sending a single-stage-to-orbit (SSTO) rocket from Earth to Mars, landing the SSTO with extreme accuracy on the back of a new Mars lander, deploying a small rover to gather the sample container, loading that container onto the tiny rocket, launching said rocket into Mars orbit, grabbing the sample with large orbiter launched from Earth, and returning said sample to Earth where it will reenter the atmosphere and be safely recovered.
  • This downright Rube Golberg machine-esque architecture is nevertheless the best currently available with current mindsets and hardware. It’s also likely the only way NASA or ESA will independently acquire samples of Mars within the next few decades, barring radical changes to both the mindsets and technologies familiar and available to the deeply bureaucratic spaceflight agencies.
  • However, this is by no means an attempt to downplay the demonstrated expertise and capabilities of the space agencies and their go-to contractors. Both ESA and NASA have a decades-long heritage of spectacular achievements in robotic space exploration, reaching – however briefly, in some cases – almost every major planet and moon in the solar system.
    • The NASA-supported Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) remains a world-leading expert of both designing, building, and landing large, capable, and long-lived rovers/landers on the surface of Mars. JPL also has a track record of incredible success with space-based orbiters, including Cassini (Saturn), Magellan (Venus), Galileo (Jupiter), Voyager (most planets, now in interstellar space), Stardust (comet sample return), Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO, Mars orbiter) and more.
  • This success, however, can often come with extreme costs. NASA’s next Mars rover – essentially a modified copy of the Curiosity rover currently operating on Mars and a critical component of the proposed sample return – is likely to cost more than $2B, while Curiosity cost ~$2.5B. The Cassini Saturn orbiter cost around ~$3.5B for 15 years of scientific productivity. ESA’s Rosetta/Philae comet rendezvous cost at least $2B total. In the scheme of things, it would be hard to think of a more inspiring way to spend that money, but the fact remains that these missions are extremely expensive.

High risk, high reward

  • The price of missions like those above may, in fact, be close to their practical minimum, at least relative to the expectations of those footing the bill. However, it’s highly likely that similar results could be achieved on far tighter budgets, another way to say that far more returns could potentially be derived from the same investment.
    • The easiest way to explain this lies in the fact that the governments sponsoring and funding ESA and NASA have grown almost dysfunctionally risk-averse, to the extent that failure really isn’t an option in the modern era. Stakeholders – often elected representatives – expect success and often demand a guaranteed return on their support before choosing to fight for a given program’s funding.
    • As it turns out, an unwillingness to accept more than a minute amount of risk is not particularly compatible with affordably attempting to do things that are technically challenging and have often never been done before. That happens to be a great summary of spaceflight.
    • As risk aversion and the need for guaranteed success grew hand-in-hand, a sort of paradox formed. As politicians strove to ensure that space agency funding was efficiently used, space agencies became far more conservative (minimizing results and the potential for leaps forward) and the cost of complex, capable spacecraft grew dramatically.
    • The end result: spacecraft that are consistently reliable, high-performance, derivative, and terrifyingly expensive.

  • SpaceX is in many ways an anathema of the low-risk, medium-reward, high-cost approach that government space agencies and their dependent contractors have gravitated towards over the last 40-50 years. Instead, SpaceX accepts medium to high risk to attain great rewards at a cost that space agencies like NASA and ESA are often unable to accept as possible after decades of conservatism.
    • This is the main reason that it’s possible that NASA/ESA and SpaceX will both succeed in accomplishing goals at a dramatically disproportionate scale with roughly the same amount of funding.
    • If NASA/ESA bite the bullet and begin to seriously fund their triple-launch Mars Sample Return program, the missions will take a decade or longer and cost something like $5 million per gram of soil returned to Earth, but success will be all but guaranteed.
    • Both SpaceX’s Starship/Super Heavy and Mars colonization development programs run significant risks of hitting major obstacles, suffering catastrophic failures, and could even result in the death of crew members aboard the first attempted missions to Mars.
    • For that accepted risk, the rewards could be unfathomable and the costs revolutionary. SpaceX could very well beat the combined might of ESA and NASA to return large samples of Martian soil, rock, and water to Earth, all while launching ~100,000 kg into Martian orbit instead of the sample return’s ~10 kg.
    • In a best-case scenario, SpaceX could land the first uncrewed Starship on Mars as early as 2022 or 2024. Barring some unforeseen catastrophe or the company’s outright collapse, that first uncrewed Mars landing might happen as late as the early 2030s, around the same time as NASA and ESA’s ~10kg of Mars samples will likely be reentering Earth’s atmosphere.
  • Regardless of which approach succeeds first, space exploration fans and space scientists will have a spectacular amount of activity to be excited about over the next 10-20 years.
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– Eric


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Tesla’s impending made-in-China Model 3 assault should scare critics

Simon Alvarez

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Posted on May 30, 2019


Earlier today, Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) received yet another negative outlook from Wall Street. This time around, it was Barclays analyst Brian Johnson, who reduced his price target for TSLA to a very conservative $133 per share. According to the analyst, his low price target is due to demand for the Model 3 stagnating in the United States and the company lacking a path to significant profitability.

Such a conclusion, which is likely driven by Tesla’s lower-than-expected numbers in the first quarter, is shortsighted at best and flat-out inaccurate at worst. There is an elephant in the room with all the negativity surrounding Tesla’s capability to survive and thrive this year, and it comes in the form of a gargantuan factory whose shell was all but completed in the span of five months in Shanghai. Tesla is poised to start producing the Model 3 at Gigafactory 3 later this year, and this development could shift the winds back in the electric car maker’s favor.

The potential of Gigafactory 3 or the advantages it could give Tesla has been strangely absent in a notable number of critical analysis surrounding the electric car maker as of late. Considering the negative narrative surrounding Tesla and Elon Musk today, this is no surprise. Tesla critics appear to have largely dismissed Gigafactory 3’s progress, as exhibited by skeptics describing the site mostly as a pile of dirt with some digging going on (videos of which are still being distributed today). Such statements have not been accurate since work took off in the Gigafactory 3 site.

Gigafactory 3 as of May 26, 2019. (Credit: Jason Yang/YouTube)
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Refusing to acknowledge Gigafactory 3’s impending operations, or discounting its capability to help Tesla’s numbers, could be a grave mistake for the company’s critics. Industry experts that actually deal with China on a regular basis, after all, have expressed their belief that Model 3s produced in Gigafactory 3 will be no joke. Take Michael Dunne, the CEO of consultancy firm ZoZo Go, for example. In a recent appearance at Autoline This Week, Dunne noted that Gigafactory 3’s presence would most definitely be a difference maker for Tesla.

“(They’re the) first foreign company to be allowed to own 100% of their operation. They’re in Shanghai. Shanghai will want to make sure they’re a success. The government will make sure that they’ve got their plant built in time and they have everything working. And on top of it all, Chinese consumers really do like the Tesla brand and really admire Elon Musk. So you’ve got a premium market — 2 million units a year — you have the government wanting electrics to succeed, and you’ve got a very strong American brand. So they’d be one to bet on,” Dunne said.

Dunne’s points are largely missed by the persistent “no demand” narrative surrounding Tesla in the United States today. It should be noted that Dunne holds a notable amount of experience with China’s automotive sector, as well, making him an authority on the subject. And it’s not just Dunne either. Automotive teardown expert Sandy Munro, who quite literally analyzed every nut and bolt in the Model 3, previously noted that Elon Musk could make a “gazillion bucks” in China if Tesla sets up Gigafactory 3’s production systems right. “I guarantee it,” Munro said during an appearance at Autoline After Hours. Munro later remarked that a Standard Model 3 produced in Gigafactory 3 could generate 25% gross margins for Tesla.

Tesla is poised to start producing the Model 3 at Gigafactory 3 later this year. (Credit: Vincent Yu/Twitter)

If there are any valid concerns about Tesla’s Gigafactory 3 operations, it would be on the electric car maker’s capability to set up the facility on time for its target initial vehicle production date, not on the market’s demand for the vehicle. Contrary to what analysts such as Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas have noted (Jonas recently pointed out during an investor call that Tesla is no longer a growth story, and that it is more of a “distressed credit and restructuring story”), it appears that there is still much growth left for the company. It’s just not happening in the United States at present. Between the statements of the Morgan Stanley analyst, who likely looks at the company’s short-term numbers, and Michael Dunne, who is immersed in China’s automotive sector by trade, one would likely be inclined to believe the latter.

Just as Tesla stock experienced a steep drop due to a perfect storm of lower-than-expected Q1 deliveries, negative analyst sentiments, misinformation, and sheer bad luck (such as the company’s delivery troubles in China during the first quarter), the electric car maker might be poised to experience yet another perfect storm with the impending completion of Gigafactory 3. With the Chinese government rooting for its success, and with customers in the country still perceiving the company and its vehicles in a positive light, the electric car maker’s made-in-China Model 3 push might prove once more that it is never wise to underestimate Tesla, and Elon Musk for that matter.

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

Tesla’s impending made-in-China Model 3 assault should scare critics


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Tesla attracts large crowds of applicants for Gigafactory 3 in special job fair

Simon Alvarez

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Posted on May 30, 2019


Tesla recently held a special job fair in Lingang China, to hire the first wave of frontline employees of Gigafactory 3. The job fair, which was aimed at hiring employees for 25 different positions under six departments, was a huge success, with Tesla receiving a massive number of applications from interested job-seekers.

Posts from Chinese social media showed that Tesla seemed to have received far too many applications for its open job listings. The electric car maker initially scheduled the special Gigafactory 3 job fair to conclude at 4 p.m. local time, but due to the number of job-seekers, Tesla ended up accepting applications until three hours after the expected deadline, at 7 p.m. local time.

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Reports from electric car enthusiasts in China have noted that Tesla is recently experiencing what appears to be a smear campaign in Chinese social media, similar to what the company is experiencing in the United States. Despite this, Tesla’s name and brand appear to be intact among China’s job-seekers, as indicated by the massive turnout of the company’s special job fair.

The initial posts that were opened for Gigafactory 3 suggest that the company is about to start setting up the factory for Model 3 production later this year. This was hinted at by the departments that Tesla was filling in with the job fair, which includes the stamping workshop, welding shop, paint shop, and vehicle assembly. Job listings for posts such as squad leaders and equipment repair technicians further add to the idea that the company is poised to start fitting Gigafactory 3 with electric car manufacturing equipment soon.

This week has seen Tesla introduce a string of clever teasers in China, each one being designed to raise awareness and excitement for the impending arrival of the locally-made Model 3, which will be produced in Gigafactory 3. Following a cryptic teaser on Monday, a price guessing game on Tuesday, and the announcement of Model 3 pre-orders on Wednesday, Tesla has rolled out yet another social media teaser on Thursday, which seems to be an encore to Tuesday’s guessing game.

Tesla’s Gigafactory 3 has risen in Shanghai at an unprecedented pace. When Elon Musk attended the event’s groundbreaking ceremony last January, the entire Gigafactory 3 site was but a muddy field, attracting mockery from the company’s critics. By mid-March, construction workers inaugurated the electric car production facility’s first pillar. Thanks to 24/7 work and the capability of China’s workforce to operate in an almost surgical manner, a nearly complete factory shell now stands in the Gigafactory 3 site, just two and a half months after the first pillar was set up.

Tesla attracts large crowds of applicants for Gigafactory 3 in special job fair


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