LNG: TESLARATI

Rivian is attending Amazon’s re:MARS 2019 event this week, an information and networking conference sponsored by the online retail giant focused on artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, and other related Earth and space technologies, including self-driving.

The latest research, scientific advancements, and industry innovations are shared during four-days of networking, keynotes, and information sessions, and speakers from companies such as Walt Disney Imagineering and NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory are on the schedule. The event takes place from June 4-7 at the Aria Resort & Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada.

The Amazon re:MARS Twitter account posted a tweet announcing Rivian’s appearance, which was then retweeted by CEO RJ Scaringe. “What happens when you combine a thirst for adventure with automotive tech and AI? Meet the world’s first Electric Adventure Vehicle at #reMARS to find out,” it said. The tweet was also tagged with “#alexaauto”, possibly indicating Rivian’s inclusion of Amazon’s Alexa voice assistant in its upcoming R1T truck and R1S SUV. Another electric car maker has already opted for this route – China’s Byton has Alexa integrated into its vehicle operating system.

What happens when you combine a thirst for adventure with automotive tech and AI? Meet the world’s first Electric Adventure Vehicle at #reMARS to find out: https://t.co/41ICnYmPNN #alexaauto @Rivian pic.twitter.com/gRG2kZh3mI

— Amazon re:MARS (@AmazonreMARS) June 2, 2019

re:MARS stands for Machine Learning, Automation, Robotics, and Space, and the event is described on its website as follows:

“re:MARS brings together innovative minds with diverse skill sets who share an inventors spirit, a builders mentality, and a desire to use AI to initiate change and shape the future. The event is designed for business leaders and technical builders (including developers, engineers, data scientists, ML [machine learning] experts, and roboticists) who translate customer problems into real-world technology solutions using AI.”

Given re:MARS’s description, Rivian’s plans for including self-driving in its R1T and R1S make its presence particularly relevant to the focus of the event. The camera and radar hardware on Rivian’s production vehicles will be capable of Level 3 autonomous driving that’s upgradable via over-the-air software updates. The initial vehicles will ship with Level 2 capabilities and use data accumulated from its customers’ driving sent to the cloud to develop its Level 3 transition.

Amazon has also invested heavily into Aurora, a self-driving startup led by ex-Tesla and ex-Google executives, and an information session hosted by the company as part of the re:MARS event. Rivian’s self-driving plans could possibly cross over with Aurora’s autonomy developments as both companies share an Amazon business linkage. The description of the Aurora information session is as follows:

“The Future of Self-Driving Technology: Aurora is improving self-driving technology with the Aurora Driver, the computer system that powers and coordinates signals from its perception system to control vehicles of different makes, models and classes. Hear from Aurora to better understand the role of AI in self-driving technology and the longstanding impacts of self-driving cars for our future.”

A map of re:MARS’s tech showcase location shows Rivian mingled with Alexa & iRobot | Smart Home, and Cybic, an electric bike company using Amazon’s Alexa digital assistant.

Amazon’s $700 million dollar investment into Rivian also likely plays a part in Rivian’s appearance at re:MARS. CEO Jeff Bezos recently referred to the electric car industry as “fascinating” and said he was excited to participate in its developments along with vehicle connectivity. Specifically referring to Rivian, he complimented Scaringe, saying he’s “one of the most missionary entrepreneurs I’ve ever met.”

RJ Scaringe has made reference to Rivian’s vehicles hosting self-guided tours fashioned like those seen in the classic 90s movie Jurassic Park. Given Amazon’s investment in the all-electric startup and the car maker’s subsequent appearance at an Alexa-focused event, perhaps the Rivian AI tour guide won’t be modeled after a classic Hollywood actor and narrator after all, an idea which was admittedly driven by imagination to begin with. “The voice you’re now hearing is Richard Kiley. Heh, we’ve spared no expense!” Richard Hammond, the fictional owner of Jurassic Park, exclaims in the movie while the tour group advanced through the dinosaur exhibits. Alexa, take me to the Tyrannosaurus rex, anyone?

While Rivian’s presence at Amazon’s re:MARS event hasn’t yet produced many details to confirm any speculations, it’s at the very least a nod towards the company’s exciting, technology-driven future.

NASA has announced awards worth $253M for three commercial Moon landers, scheduled to attempt their first lunar missions as early as 2020 or 2021. SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rockets is reportedly scheduled to launch at least two of the three spacecraft.

Known as the Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS), the NASA program was created in 2018 to both take advantage of and expand a small undercurrent of commercial lunar spacecraft development. Including NASA’s latest awards, more than half a dozen companies are now seriously pursuing the production of commercial or partially commercial Moon-bound spacecraft, all with launch debuts sometime in the early 2020s. For the majority of those companies, the mixture of performance and affordability offered by SpaceX’s Falcon 9 is a critical enabler.

A waxing Moon

Although the practical motivations are unclear (if not nonexistent), a moderately organized return to the Moon is undeniably in the political air thanks to the European Space Agency’s (ESA) interest in a “Moon Village” and NASA’s own crewed “Artemis” program. Both are chronically conceptual, underfunded, over-ambitious, and to be preceded by far more realistic public-private partnerships that aim to land maybe 10-100 kg of usable payload on the Moon in the next 2-5 years.

Launched as a Falcon 9 rideshare passenger, a partnership between Israel’s IAI and SpaceIL became the first commercial team to orbit the Moon with its Beresheet spacecraft but fell just shy of a successful landing due to a fairly minor software issue. SpaceIL/IAI have already begun planning a follow-up attempt.

Thanks to SpaceX, Spaceflight, and SpaceIL’s successful demonstration of rideshare launch services as a viable method of sending spacecraft to the Moon, Falcon 9 (and perhaps Falcon Heavy) have been set up as excellent choices for any future commercial Moon landers. Given that 3 or 4 of the 5 landers with known launch vehicles are at least tentatively manifested on Falcon 9s, it’s clear that the industry is also aware of this fact.

Although most of the above companies have more ambitious (and thus larger) next-generation vehicles planned, it’s likely that all of the above launch debuts will be light enough to ride as copassengers on rockets like Falcon 9, Atlas V/Vulcan, or Ariane 5/6. At least for some of the companies aiming for the Moon, technical success could be quickly followed by commercial services that would offer regular launches to the lunar surface. Several companies have hinted at payload costs as low as $1-2M per kilogram delivered, an understandable premium that could actually transform commercial lunar transport services into a viable business.

Whether that market develops, the first burst of commercial landing attempts is set to make 2020 and 2021 an exciting time for both public and private space exploration.

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Elon Musk has mentioned in the past that among Tesla’s upcoming vehicles, he is most excited about the electric car maker’s upcoming pickup truck. Musk has revealed some details about the vehicle little by little over the past months, from its Blade Runner cyberpunk look to its insane tech. During his recent appearance at Tesla owner-enthusiast Ryan McCaffrey‘s Ride the Lightning podcast, the CEO revealed one notable aspect of the vehicle: it’s starting price.

Musk noted that the Tesla pickup truck would have a starting price of $49,000 at most, though he pointed out that the company is looking to offer the vehicle at “well under” $50,000. “You should be able to buy a really great truck for $49k or less,” Musk said.

At a starting price of $49,000 maximum, the Tesla pickup truck will undercut the Rivian R1T, an all-electric truck that has been critically-acclaimed since its unveiling last year. Compared to the Tesla truck, the R1T will carry a significant premium, starting at $69,000. That said, it should be noted that the Rivian R1T is entering the market as a luxury adventure pickup truck, which could also suggest that the Silicon Valley-based electric car maker is going for another demographic with the Tesla Truck.

While Musk admits that the Tesla Truck will likely be polarizing for buyers in the way that its design might be futuristic for some people, he stated that the vehicle would have the functionalities of a truck, and more. Musk noted that Tesla’s goal for its pickup is to be better than a Ford F-150 in terms of functionality and better than a (Porsche) 911 in terms of sports car attributes. “It’s going to be a truck that’s more capable than other trucks,” Musk explained.

The CEO has previously mentioned that the Tesla Truck will not look out of place in the set of the sci-fi Blade Runner franchise, and he has also noted that the vehicle will be loaded to the teeth with tech. In a series of tweets last year, Musk noted that the Tesla pickup would have six seats, 400-500 miles of range per charge, dual motor AWD, a 240-volt connection for heavy-duty tools, and up to 300,000 pounds of towing capacity, to name a few. Nevertheless, considering the vehicle’s starting price, Tesla seems to be looking to release a version of the vehicle that is specifically aimed at customers that need functionality and utility.

As a final note, Elon Musk also confirmed that the teaser image shared by Tesla during the Model Y unveiling is the front of the pickup truck. Let the next round of Tesla Truck renders begin, at least until the electric car maker unveils the vehicle later this year.

Listen to Ryan McCaffrey’s Ride the Lightning podcast episode featuring Elon Musk here.

Elon Musk’s appearance at Tesla owner-enthusiast Ryan McCaffrey’s Ride the Lightning podcast revealed a number of new details about the electric car maker’s upcoming halo vehicle, the next-generation Roadster. While addressing the all-electric supercar, Musk discussed the vehicle’s estimated yearly production numbers, its purpose, and some details about its “SpaceX package.”

Ever the candid interviewee, Musk admitted that the next-generation Roadster is really more like a dessert to the Model S, 3, X, and Y’s main course, in the way that its existence will probably not provide much of an impact to Tesla’s overall mission of accelerating the world’s transition to sustainable energy. Nevertheless, the Roadster still has a lot of merits, in the way that it could establish the superiority of pure electric propulsion compared to the internal combustion engine, bar none.

Musk noted that the Roadster is intended to outperform the best “Ferraris, Lamborghinis, and McLarens” on every dimension, on every level, including the track, thereby erasing the halo effect of gas cars. “We’re going to do things with the new Roadster that are kind of unfair to other cars. (It’s) crushingly good relative to the next best gasoline sports car,” Musk said.

One of the ways that Tesla intends to do this is to utilize the technologies of Musk’s other company, SpaceX, for the all-electric supercar’s optimizations. Dubbed the “SpaceX package,” this particular trim of the next-generation Roadster will feature cold gas thrusters to enable the vehicle to perform in ways that are practically unthought of in the past. Musk noted that these arguably sci-fi modifications to the Roadster are very feasible since all the technology is already there.

“If you have, say 3 Gs of thrust, you can go in any direction. You can go up and still accelerate upwards of 2 Gs,” Musk said.

Such levels of thrust will place the next-generation Roadster’s SpaceX package at a completely different level compared to the ’market’s most insane vehicles. The Dodge Demon, for one, made headlines when it was revealed that it was capable of pulling 1.8 Gs. The Buggati Veyron, one of the fastest cars in the market, pulls 1.55 Gs. Quite notably, the Roadster SpaceX package’s thrust will match that of the space shuttle, which also pulls 3 Gs during launch.

Inasmuch as the next-generation Roadster will be Tesla’s halo car, the CEO noted that the vehicle would likely see a production of only about 10,000 units per year. Considering the vehicle’s somewhat accessible entry-level price point at $200,000 (at least in the supercar segment), this could mean that the supply of next-gen Roadsters would likely be constrained for years to come.

As an added note:

When asked about the next-gen Roadster’s “Augmented Mode” that he announced last year, Musk (jokingly) stated that the vehicle could just have a jack that could connect to a person’s Neuralink, a reference to one of his other ventures. This sounds entirely in the realm of science fiction, of course, but years down the road, who’s to say such a thing will be impossible?

Listen to Ryan McCaffrey’s interview with Elon Musk here.

It’s no secret that the tensions between the US and China are high, but now it appears to be affecting the rapidly-growing country’s EV market. Don’t get me wrong, China’s EV sales still put the US to shame, more than 45,197 all-electric vehicles in sold April alone. But the more notable portion of that news? Pure EV sales fell 4% compared to the stellar 2018 sales (I’m excluding plug-in hybrids on purpose).

There are a couple of reasons for the speed bump in EV sales growth. First, are the massive changes happening to Chinese NEV (new energy vehicles, which includes plug-in hybrids) subsidies. Second, as mentioned above, the macroeconomic effects from US-Chinese relations. The system for Chinese NEV subsidies is incredibly complex, and I’m not going to pretend to know all the system’s ins and outs. But it’s worth pointing out a few differences from more traditional tax rebates or credits. Tesla doesn’t currently earn any subsidies from their sales in China, their future Chinese-built Model 3s would be eligible for subsidies.*

Only cars made in China are eligible for these subsidies. Tesla has never had access to them.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) June 3, 2019

One of the major differences between the US’ federal tax rebate system and Chinese subsidies lies with the redemption process, or lack thereof. Rather than putting the responsibility on consumers, the Chinese government requires all manufacturers to factor in subsidies into sales prices, then request payment from the government. This process is incredibly beneficial to consumers, allowing them to realize the price reduction immediately, but causes many automotive companies troubles. The subsidy request process in China can take up to a year for automakers to be reimbursed, straining their balance sheets and hurting their cash flow.

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This subsidy request process doesn’t cause a huge threat to large established companies, who have strong cash flows from their ICE sales (see, BYD). But for small companies like Tesla and NIO, these sort of subsidy structures can put them at a disadvantage compared to their peers. In fact, NIO’s VP of Quality, Feng Shen, recently told me that he believed that the reduction of subsidies will help NIO in the long term. Tesla’s Musk has echoed this premise with US subsidies (ZEV credits and consumer tax credits)— allowing all companies to compete on a more equal playing field.

While Shen might be right, NIO and Tesla’s sales appear to be taking a hit in part to subsidy reductions. NIO reported only 1,124 sales of the ES8 in April, with a total of 5,113 in the first four months of 2019. However, NIO stated that the ES8 has outsold the Tesla Model X 2:1 in the same four months, indicating ~2,500 sales (foreign-built vehicles aren’t required to report sales figures). While Tesla doesn’t report regional sales figures, NIO’s statements about the ES8’s lead over the Model X hints at the increasing competition in China’s premium all-electric SUV segment. 

It’s nearly impossible to tell if macroeconomic conditions or subsidies are playing a bigger role here, but I’d say its safe to assume its a mix of the two are hurting NIO’s sales (Tesla’s US-built vehicles aren’t eligible for subsidies). I wouldn’t say this slump in EV sales is an indicator of long-term demand in the world’s largest automotive market, but both Tesla and NIO have placed large bets on huge demand. Tesla’s Shanghai Gigafactory is well under construction and the company is expecting huge demand for their lower-cost Model 3, which is priced at RMB 328,000 (~$47,400).

But for NIO, the company is feeling the pressure. Unlike Tesla, China is the company’s sole market and they are burning cash quickly ($390M in Q1). To cut their cash burn NIO has been remarkably reactive, cutting costs by an impressive (obviously not to some) 25% in Q1 and focusing on launching their second (lower-cost) vehicle, the ES6. The company isn’t ready to revise its 2019 guidance (35-40K vehicles) yet, but is cautiously watching the Chinese market.

With the world’s largest auto market hitting a speed bump, the entire industry is on pins and needles, watching and waiting for a recovery. When do you think the Chinese EV market will bounce back? Do you think Tesla and NIO are over-investing in China?

*Update: An earlier version of this article indicated that Tesla’s vehicles were eligible for China’s NEV subsidies. Only NEVs built in China are eligible for these subsidies and Tesla may benefit from them in the future with their Chinese-built Model 3. 

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For the second time in two months, SpaceX technicians have begun to install a Raptor engine on Starhopper, a full-scale Starship testbed theoretically capable of low-velocity, moderate-altitude ‘hops’.

Back in late March, Raptor and Starhopper were joined for the first time, enabling a lengthy series of attempted tests that were followed by two engine ignitions and tethered hops before Raptor was removed for inspection. In the two months since that first round of integrated testing, SpaceX has significantly upgraded Starhopper and its spartan launch facilities, all focused on transforming the odd vehicle from a largely fixed test stand into a giant, mobile Grasshopper.

All the way back in 2012, SpaceX began testing Falcon 9 recovery and reusability concepts with a low-fidelity prototype known as Grasshopper – essentially a minimalist Falcon 9 first stage with ad hoc legs and a single Merlin engine. It supported a series of 8 major test flights – all successful and a source of valuable data – before the vehicle’s 2013 retirement. An upgraded Grasshopper – known instead as Falcon 9 Reusable Development Vehicle (F9R Dev1) – began testing around the same time and continued even higher altitude vertical takeoff/vertical landing (VTVL) tests until its untimely demise in August 2014.

Starhopper is quite similar, although it is also serving as a testbed for a far more varied range of technologies due to the fact that it has been developed before the inaugural launch of its namesake (Starship/Super Heavy). By the time SpaceX started Grasshopper/F9R tests, Falcon 9 had already completed several successful launches. With Starhopper, SpaceX is building and testing its first 9m-diameter ‘flight’ hardware, its first propellant tanks built out of steel, its first flight-capable rocket fueled by methane and oxygen, and its first mobile Raptor testbed, among numerous other things. The challenges are inherently much greater, but SpaceX has the luxury of taking the opposite approach it took towards Falcon 9 and building a launch vehicle entirely around its intended reusability, rather than trying to squeeze a method of reusability around an already-flying rocket.

Saurid Oddities

As noted by NASASpaceflight.com in a June 2nd article, SpaceX seems to be juggling its growing selection of newly-produced and tested Raptor engines in pursuit of Starhopper’s return to flight. According to the publication’s reliable sources,

“Up until recently, [SpaceX] was planning to utilize Raptor SN4 for [Starhopper’s first] untethered hops. However, the company has now decided to utilize this engine only for fit checks, and will instead perform the hops with SN5 – the latest Raptor to come out of SpaceX’s factory in Hawthorne, California.” – NASASpaceflight.com, June 2nd, 2019

This indicates that the Raptor engine delivered to Boca Chica on June 1st and currently in the process of being installed on Starhopper is actually more of a stand-in* for a future Raptor, SN05. The reasons behind this Raptor shuffle elude detection, but it’s possible that the simplest explanation – also posed by NASASpaceflight – is the correct one. By shipping a Raptor that may not be ready for flight tests, SpaceX could likely save anywhere from a few days up to a few weeks by doing everything short of lifting off under the powered of Raptor SN04.

*By all appearances, SN04 is a flight-grade Raptor that has completed assembly and likely been test-fired in McGregor, Texas. Why it may currently be resigned to a “stand-in” role is unknown.

It appears that the Raptor engine is not centered, could it be that they are going straight with the 3 engine test. (Idk honestly, I wonder why this is?) @elonmusk are things about to get epic😆🚀 pic.twitter.com/sne5v7SMhy

— Austin Barnard🚀 (@austinbarnard45) June 1, 2019

Very curiously, upon Raptor SN04’s South Texas arrival, it appears that SpaceX technicians have indeed rapidly installed the engine on Starhopper, but in a position that is decidedly off-center. Pictured above, the photo could have simply caught the engine while technicians were moving it to its actual installation spot, but it could also indicate that SpaceX is speeding towards Starhopper’s first triple-Raptor test flights.

Starhopper delays?

In line with the last-second switch from Raptor SN04 to Raptor SN05 as the engine-to-be for untethered hops, SpaceX has pushed the start of that test series from approximately May 31st to June 11th. More likely than not, the ~11-day delay is meant to allow time for Raptor SN05’s McGregor, Texas acceptance testing, given that – per CEO Elon Musk – the engine wasn’t even finished as of May 22nd.

On the other hand, with Raptor SN05 now scheduled to support Starhopper hop tests as early as mid-June, it begs the question of whether SpaceX is instead working towards expedited triple-Raptor testing. For unknown reasons, neither Raptor SN03 or SN04 are apparently ready to support flight operations, although both have been thoroughly hot-fired in McGregor. Perhaps each engine is a distinct prototype with a different level of experimental readiness, or perhaps SpaceX is just testing certain engines (like SN03) more extensively than others (SN05).

Regardless, SpaceX now seems to have 3-4 intact, functional Raptor engines (excluding SN01; destroyed during stress testing), 2-3 of which are actively testing or being worked on a day’s drive north of Boca Chica. SN02 – having successfully supported a brief duo of ignition tests with Starhopper – could still be intact and test-ready. SN03 is an unknown quantity, but SN04 is clearly in excellent shape and is probably close to flight-readiness if it isn’t already. This is to say that SpaceX likely already has three Raptors on hand that are capable of supporting multi-engine Starhopper testing, whether or not such a test regime would actually be valuable.

Musk has noted that both orbit-capable Starship prototypes will be far closer to finished products and will thus fly with “at least 3 engines” (3 sea level engines, as it would turn out) or even “all 6” (3 sea level, 3 vacuum-optimized). In the meantime, Starhopper stands with an off-centered Raptor, awaiting the arrival of a different Raptor to kick off a second hop test program. If nothing else, SpaceX’s Starship/Super Heavy development program is operating in a spectacularly hardware-rich fashion, lending itself to the breakneck-pace of iteration and improvement SpaceX is famous for.

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