LNG: TESLARATI

Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) continued its rise on Monday amidst the release of two positive outlooks from Roth Capital Partners and Baird, both of whom have expressed their optimism on the electric car maker and the demand for its vehicles, especially the Model 3.

Following meetings with several Chinese EV producers and relevant supply chain participants, Roth Capital Partners analyst Craig Irwin upgraded Tesla shares from a “Neutral” rating to a “Buy.” Irwin also gave the electric car maker a $238 per share price target.

Irwin noted that while rising battery costs will likely be a 2019 margin headwind for Tesla, demand for the company’s electric cars in China will likely be stronger than what was previously anticipated. Considering that China’s Model 3 deliveries were expected to have reached 2,324 units in May, Tesla could very well see a “credible” second half of 2019, according to Irwin.

Longtime TSLA bull Ben Kallo from Baird also noted on Monday that he expects positive news from the electric car maker during its Annual Shareholder Meeting on Tuesday, June 11, 2019, at the Computer History Museum located in Mountain View, CA. Kallo maintained his optimistic $340 per share price target for Tesla stock, a 66% upside from TSLA’s closing price last Friday.

The Baird analyst further argued that Model 3 demand had been underestimated, particularly amidst the recent emergence of the “demand problem” thesis from the company’s skeptics. “Weak demand remains at the forefront as a bear argument, and while it appears Model S+X demand has softened, we continue to believe Model 3 demand is underestimated. Positive updates in recent weeks, including leaked emails and reports of strong deliveries, appear to have improved sentiment on demand, which we view positively,” Kallo stated.

Roth Capital and Baird are not the only firms that have taken a positive stance on Tesla recently. Piper Jaffray analyst Alexander Potter also maintained his “Overweight” rating on TSLA stock, as well as his $396 per share price target. In a note to the firm’s clients, Potter noted that among the reasons to doubt his Overweight thesis, Tesla’s “weak demand is among the least convincing.”

Tesla appears to be poised to surprise this second quarter, as suggested by a leaked Elon Musk email which hinted at the company potentially exceeding its record deliveries in Q4 2018, a time when over 90,000 vehicles were delivered to customers. A later email from the CEO to Tesla employees also noted that the company needs to dig deep this second quarter to achieve an “all-time record for Tesla vehicle deliveries and an awesome victory.”

As of writing, Tesla stock is trading +5.70% at $216.11 per share.

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

Tesla appears to be adopting a bolder stance this year at its annual shareholder meeting (LIVE Blog), with the electric car maker showcasing three of its upcoming vehicles — the new Tesla Roadster, the Tesla Semi, and the Tesla Model Y — at the event’s venue. All three vehicles look stunning, particularly as each one is sporting a sleek red finish.

Images of the three vehicles initially made the rounds on social media among the Tesla community, several of whom were shareholders themselves who are attending the event. Particularly interesting was the red Model Y on display, which appears to be making its first public appearance today. Prior to the annual shareholder meeting, Tesla has only unveiled two units of the Model Y: a (potential) white dummy with blacked out windows that made its appearance at the vehicle’s unveiling, and a deep blue metallic prototype that was used for test drives.

Contrary to the white Model Y dummy that was displayed at the all-electric crossover’s unveiling event, the red vehicle displayed at the grounds of the Computer History Museum in Mountain View, CA appears to be a working prototype, as hinted at by the unit’s finished interior. While Tesla could have simply wrapped the blue Model Y with a metallic wrap for the event (similar to what the company did for the matte black Tesla Semi), it is difficult to deny that the all-electric 7-seater looks great in red.

Tesla’s display vehicles this year are notably bolder than the previous year’s. In the 2018 annual shareholder meeting, Tesla opted to showcase a more understated white Tesla Roadster and the silver Tesla Semi. Both electric vehicles were still showstoppers in their own right, but they do feel quite muted compared to Tesla’s blazing displays for this year’s annual meeting.

So why the red? The color choice is quite interesting considering that the shade is widely associated with intense emotions such as determination. Red is also associated with good fortune in China, a country with a massive EV market that Tesla is attempting to breach with Gigafactory 3’s made-in-China Model 3. Of course, Tesla could have also gone for an all-red vehicle display simply because the Roadster, Model Y, and Semi look great in the color (and that’s perfectly okay too).

Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting will begin at 2:30 p.m. Pacific Time at the Computer History Museum located in Mountain View, CA. Similar to Autonomy Day, the upcoming shareholder meeting will be livestreamed. A link for the event’s livestream could be accessed here. Teslarati will also be live-blogging the investor event, to provide a blow-by-blow account of the meeting for readers who are unable to access the video stream.

It appears that some of Tesla’s investors might not be seeing the big picture when it comes to the innate value of the company’s full self-driving technology. This was a point highlighted by Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas in a note on Tuesday, where he argued that Tesla’s capabilities and progress in the autonomous vehicle market might very well be underappreciated.

Taking a stance that is notably different from his bearish note earlier this month, when he insisted that Tesla is no longer seen as a growth story, Jonas’ new note struck a more optimistic tone. “We believe investors underappreciate/undervalue Tesla’s Autonomy business. Many investors to whom we speak do not explicitly include Tesla’s Autonomy business in their valuation of the company,” he stated.

The analyst also listed down other critical areas of Tesla’s business that are “underappreciated” by investors. Among these are Tesla’s vast infrastructure of charging stations, the company’s solar and energy storage products, a potential business of selling EV batteries to other carmakers, and the opportunities presented by the Tesla Semi. Jonas noted that each of these areas has “potential commercial value beyond the manufacturing of Tesla vehicles.”

While Jonas’ change of heart presents an easy target for criticism, it is difficult to argue against the Morgan Stanley analyst’s points about the potential of Tesla’s autonomous driving solutions. Other full self-driving firms such as Waymo and GM Cruise, after all, enjoy healthy valuations from the financial sector. GM Cruise, for example, lags behind Tesla and Waymo in real-world miles, but the unit is nonetheless valued at $19 billion as of May 2019, following a $1.15 billion funding round from investors such a SoftBank and Honda. Jonas, for his part, estimates Tesla’s self-driving technology to be worth around $8.5 billion.

Among the companies that are currently pursuing full self-driving technology, Tesla is arguably the one with the most real-world data. During his presentation at Tesla’s Autonomy Day, Director of AI Andrej Karpathy pointed out that when it comes to training artificial intelligence for autonomous driving, there is simply no substitute for miles that are driven in the real world. This is something that companies such as Waymo and GM Cruise inherently lack, due to their limited number of vehicles on the road.

With the rollout of its custom Hardware 3 computer, Tesla is currently making a serious play for full self-driving. CEO Elon Musk has even noted that Tesla’s Full Self-Driving suite should become “feature complete” by the end of 2019. Musk has also suggested that the Tesla Network’s autonomous Robotaxi service could be ready by next year, pending regulators’ approval. If Tesla can meet these aggressive timetables, then investors in the company would likely find it very difficult to not account for the value of the electric car maker’s full self-driving technology.

As of writing, Tesla stock is trading +1.09% at $215.19 per share.

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

Tesla’s retail investors are aggregating a number of inquiries that will hopefully be addressed by the electric car maker in the upcoming 2019 Annual Shareholder Meeting, which will be held later today. The questions are compiled from verified TSLA investors by Say, a startup whose aim is to develop effective investor communication tools.

Through the online platform, TSLA investors submitted and voted on inquiries that they wish would be discussed and explained by Tesla during the event. So far, the crowdsourced initiative has been garnering a fair amount of support from investors, with over 420 retail shareholders representing around $27 million worth of TSLA stock submitting their inquiries as of writing.

Here are a number of questions that have garnered a good number of votes from retail shareholders.

• What is the status of Tesla insurance for vehicles?
• What aspects of battery production will the integration of Maxwell technology affect and by what factor including cost, energy density, and longevity? Will it also impact batteries used for energy storage?
• Production has been battery constrained for some time now. Can you describe Tesla’s road map to increase cell and pack production as the Model Y, Semi, Pickup, and Roadster 2.0 will dramatically add to Tesla’s battery needs?
• Can Tesla provide an update on the direction of (its) solar business?
• Elon, you’ve said you want Tesla to be the best manufacturer on earth. Can you comment on some of the things manufacturing wise that will be different in Giga3 compared with Fremont and the other Gigafactories?

• Tesla does not advertise which is a good thing (mostly). However, majority of the people are unaware of how affordable, fun and efficient Tesla cars are. Any plans for non-traditional marketing to educate the people on the advantages of owning a Tesla and accelerate adoption?
• Is there any chance the Model Y production schedule will be pushed up? We all know Crossovers and Small SUVs are the highest selling automobiles now, and many other automakers appear to be readying theirs for sale.
• Would Tesla consider opening up the “Tesla Ride-sharing Network” prior to full autonomy being reached? Allowing the public to hail premium rides from Tesla owners through the Tesla App would add an additional source of revenue generation and introduce non-owners with the brand.
• At the end of 2018 Q4 you announced a significant multifaceted service initiative. How far has it come and how much further does it need to go to be where you want it to be?
• When will model 3 owners who paid for FSD get upgraded from HW2.5 to HW3?

Tesla has been tapping into the pulse of its retail shareholders using the Say platform for the past quarters. During last year’s second quarter earnings call, for example, retail investors representing $60 million worth of TSLA shares aggregated over 300 inquiries for the company, and five were personally addressed by CEO Elon Musk during the Q&A session. Say also played a huge part in Tesla’s Q1 2019 earnings call, where investors inquired about updates on projects such as the Maxwell acquisition and Powerpack production.

Tesla’s 2019 Annual Shareholder Meeting is expected to be held on Tuesday, June 11, 2019, at 2:30 p.m. Pacific Time at the Computer History Museum located in Mountain View, CA. Similar to the company’s Autonomy Day, which saw Tesla unveil the capabilities of its custom-designed full self-driving computer, the upcoming shareholder meeting will be livestreamed. The link for the event’s livestream could be accessed here.

The full list of questions from TSLA’s retail investors listed on Say for the Annual Shareholder Meeting could be accessed here.

A storm is brewing in China, and it could end up playing into Tesla’s favor. Amidst the company’s release of Navigate on Autopilot for Chinese markets, government regulations for electric vehicle registrations have also been updated, paving the way for a flood of EVs such as the Model 3 to be sold and delivered at numbers never seen before.

With the near-completion of the factory shell of Gigafactory 3 in May, Tesla has been putting the pedal to the metal in its marketing efforts for the Chinese market. So far, the company has rolled out a compelling loan and leasing program, as well as opened pre-orders for locally-made Model 3, which will be manufactured in Gigafactory 3. On Thursday, Tesla also released Navigate on Autopilot for the Chinese market, allowing its local customers to enjoy the company’s most robust driver-assist feature to date.

In what could very well be a stroke of luck, the China National Reform and Development Commission also released a new policy barring local governments across the nation to enact restrictions on electric vehicle registrations. Prior to this update, Tier 1 cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have adopted strategies such as license plate quotas to control the number of vehicles registrations per year.

Beijing, for example, generally required prospective car buyers to get license plate numbers through a lottery. EV buyers are given a bit more leeway, since they are only required to queue up their license plate applications. Considering that the city has a quota of 60,000 EVs per year under the prior system, EV buyers could end up waiting a long time before they are issued a license plate for their electric cars.

While inconvenient, it should be noted that this wait time is still far more convenient than what is experienced by buyers of internal combustion vehicles in Beijing. Apart from having to participate in a lottery for license plates, buyers of ICE cars are also required to follow “limit days,” where their vehicles are forbidden on roads at certain days of the week.

Under the terms of the new regulations, local governments and enterprises are required to give policy support for electric vehicles in terms of purchase restrictions, and even parking fees, among others. Previous restrictions have also been cancelled. This update could ultimately open a torrent of new electric car purchases in China’s Tier 1 cities, as buyers are now more incentivized to purchase an EV. This, of course, could significantly benefit Tesla.

Tesla is currently saturating the Chinese market with the Model 3, though it should be noted that the company is only partly done with its push into the lucrative Chinese market. With Gigafactory 3’s workers seemingly shifting their efforts to the facility’s interior, Tesla might very well reach its goal of producing Made-in-China Model 3s by the end of the year. If Tesla accomplishes this, then the company’s future in China might very well become even brighter.

Recent drone flybys and images taken from Tesla’s Gigafactory 3 complex in Shanghai, China, reveal that some sections of the massive electric car production facility have entered the initial tooling stage. These updates come amidst the electric car maker’s renewed efforts at opening new job listings for the upcoming factory.

Footage taken by drone operator Wuwa Vision (烏瓦) shows that most of the work in Gigafactory 3 is currently happening in the facility’s interior. Cement trucks could be seen entering and leaving the facility, suggesting that sections of the factory are currently being paved with concrete. Images taken by Tesla enthusiast and DongXii.com founder Marcel Münch, who recently visited Shanghai, also revealed that machinery is already being installed in some sections of the Gigafactory 3 complex.  

A close look at Münch’s pictures of the structure near the main vehicle production facility, for one, reveals Bosch equipment being installed in the building. The DongXii.com founder also mentioned that workers in the site are currently aiming to complete the preparations for Gigafactory 3’s operations sometime in August. This is well in line with the more optimistic speculations for the facility, which suggest that electric car production could begin as early as September.

Tesla, for its part, is showing signs that it is ramping its Chinese workforce. Fresh off a massively successful job fair, the company has announced a new set of job openings for the electric car production facility. Considering that Tesla was overwhelmed by the sheer number of applicants in its previous job fair, there is a good chance that the electric car maker will not have any issues filling in the new positions it recently added for Gigafactory 3.

The rise of Gigafactory 3 has been incredibly rapid. In just a matter of six months, Tesla and China’s workforce were able to transform a large plot of land into an industrial area where a large electric car production facility is taking shape. This pace is incredibly impressive; so much so that the facility has the potential to set a record in China for the fastest car factory buildout.

Gigafactory 3 is a crucial component of Tesla’s operations in China, being the facility that will be responsible for producing affordable variants of the Model 3 and Model Y for the local market. Tesla has opened pre-orders for the Made-in-China Model 3 recently, and despite the vehicle’s higher-than-expected starting price of RMB 328,000 (~$47,400), the electric car maker appears to have received a fair amount of reservations for the Gigafactory 3-produced vehicle nonetheless. Just hours after opening pre-orders for the electric sedan, for example, Tesla’s China website experienced slowdowns, before crashing from the online traffic being directed on the site.

Watch Gigafactory 3’s continued progress in the video below.