LNG: TESLARATI

SpaceX has completed its last California Falcon 9 launch of 2019 and the company’s official pictures of the mission are unexpectedly spectacular considering the near-zero visibility incurred by coastal fog.

Lifting off on June 12th, Falcon 9 successfully delivered the Canadian Space Agency’s Radarsat Constellation Mission (RCM) – likely weighing ~5000 kg (11,000 lb) – to a 600 km (370 mi) sun-synchronous orbit (SSO). Made up of three separate Earth observation satellites, RCM has a combined value greater than $1 billion and has thus become the single most expensive payload – perhaps by as much as a factor of two – SpaceX has ever launched. Although disappointing, RCM made for a spectacular temporary finale to SpaceX’s West Coast launch activity, likely the company’s last Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) mission for at least 6-9 months.

Due to an unknown combination of construction delays, regulatory hurdles, and a general lack of pressing need, SpaceX completed its West Coast landing zone (LZ-4) around the middle of 2018, at which point the bulk of the company’s Vandenberg launch manifest had already been completed. 2017 saw six SpaceX Vandenberg launches, while 2018 featured five, combining to represent a respectable ~29% of the company’s launches over the two-year period.

Pictured above, LZ-4 was used for the first time in October 2018, shortly after Falcon 9 B1048.2 sent the Argentinian SAOCOM 1A Earth observation satellite on its way to orbit. Curiously, SpaceX’s LZ-4 land use permit specifically stated that the company would need to avoid land-landings during harbor seal pupping season (reportedly March through June) to avoid disturbing the ecosystem.

This contradicts SpaceX’s June 12th use of LZ-4 after B1051’s successful RCM launch, potentially indicating that the company chose to risk fines instead of dusting off its under-utilized West Coast drone ship Just Read The Instructions (JRTI), last used in January. In all fairness, if SpaceX – as appears to be the case – has no more launches planned in 2019, a one-off seal-scare is hopefully harmless.

In 2019, SpaceX Vandenberg’s share of launches will drop to 10-15% and may fall even further. Beyond Iridium NEXT-8 (January) and RCM (June), no other SpaceX missions are publicly manifested in 2019 with launches on the West Coast, although tight-lipped US military or Starlink missions could potentially crop up later this year. 2020 is unlikely to be any better with just three launches (all fairly uncertain and liable to slip considerably). As of June 2019, SpaceX’s 2021 manifest looks far more promising and could involve no less than six launches from California.

Further down the road, US military contracts – assuming SpaceX is one of two main providers chosen – should offer a decent IV drip (~1-2 annual launches) for the rest of the decade.

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Rivian recently announced its upcoming attendance at Outdoor Retailer’s Summer Market in Denver, Colorado, continuing their embrace of the outdoor adventure community and the company’s “electric outdoor adventure” narrative.

“Our team is headed back to @OutdoorRetailer next week—this time with the #R1T. Look forward to seeing old friends and meeting new ones. Check http://OutdoorRetailer.com for information on how to attend this industry-only event,” the startup’s official Twitter account revealed.

The Outdoor Retailer event is the largest outdoor industry trade show in North America and is primarily focused on business-to-business networking. Three shows are organized by the brand each year – the Summer Market, the Winter Market, and the Snow Show. This year’s Summer Market takes place June 18-20 at the Colorado Convention Center.

Rivian will be joined by other retailers at the outdoor sports show showcasing innovative and unique gear, apparel, and accessories to include adventure travel, backpacking, camping, hiking, climbing, skiing, and snowboarding, among others. The theme of the event and products offered by other attendees are well matched to Rivian’s own tech and branding. The car maker has frequently displayed an impressive tent attachment on the back of the R1T truck, and several features on the vehicle are specifically aimed at carrying gear for camping, hiking, and other similar outdoor activities. For instance, the R1T has a unique tunnel through the middle of the vehicle that can carry things like snow boards, and there are adjustable cargo racks that easily attach/detach from the roof or on top of the truck bed.

Rivian’s attendance at the Summer Market comes on the heels of their appearance at Amazon’s re:MARS tech expo in Las Vegas. The all-electric car maker also attended the New York International Auto Show and the Overlander Expo West in Flagstaff, Arizona this year.

At each event, new details about the company’s upcoming R1T pickup truck and R1S SUV were revealed, including a portable kitchen built for the R1T gear tunnel and their vehicles’ integration with Amazon’s Alexa digital assistant for voice commands. Rivian sent two team members on a Memorial Day trip to Sedona, Arizona to promote the R1T, kitchen set, and tent attachment via the company’s social media accounts; however, no further details have yet been provided on the Alexa functionality.

In addition to expo appearances, Rivian may have a test drive tour in the works. An attendee of the New York International Auto Show spoke with the company’s team, including CEO RJ Scaringe, and claimed the possibility of a roadshow was discussed that would give potential customers a chance to experience the R1T and R1S while driving. A job posting for a “Test Driver” on Rivian’s website also seemed to confirm this plan, the description for which included “ride and drive demos of Rivian vehicles (Marketing Events, Customer Trade Shows),” among other responsibilities.

As interest in Rivian’s vehicles continues to grow, especially the R1T, Tesla also has its own pickup truck in the works that’s set to be unveiled this summer. It remains to be seen whether the two companies’ vehicles will attract the same customer base – Tesla CEO Elon Musk has often referenced a cyberpunk styling that may not appeal to a wide audience. There is a definite question of price competitiveness, though. Musk recently revealed Tesla’s truck will be priced at $49k or less, while Rivian’s R1T is said to start at $69,000. Rivian’s vehicles are set to be delivered sometime next year, and no timeline has yet been set for the Tesla pickup truck.

Update: SpaceX has successfully wrapped up the Radarsat Constellation Mission, likely its last launch from Vandenberg Air Force Base for six to nine months. Supporting its second mission, Falcon 9 booster B1051 completed a flawless launch and landing, returning to SpaceX’s pad-adjacent LZ-4 landing zone after a gentle, (relatively) low-velocity reentry at ~1.6 km/s (3700 mph).

Despite more than seven months of delays, the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) can finally rest now that all three Radarsat Constellation spacecraft are safely in orbit, completing what is arguably the most arduous leg of most spacecraft journeys. Valued at more than $1 billion, SpaceX has also successfully launched its most expensive payload by a large margin, adding to Falcon 9’s increasingly impressive record of reliability.

SpaceX is just hours away from its sixth Falcon 9 launch of 2019, likely the company’s last Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) mission for the rest of the year (and possibly longer).

Flight proven Falcon 9 booster B1051.1 has been assigned to the launch and will attempt to return to SpaceX’s LZ-4 landing zone after sending Canada’s Radarsat Constellation Mission (RCM) on its way to orbit. Likely weighing approximately 5000 kg (11,000 lb), RCM is comprised of a trio of Earth observation spacecraft with large surface-scanning radars as their primary payloads. At a cost of more than $1 billion, RCM will be the most expensive payload SpaceX has ever attempted to launch. Falcon 9 has a 13-minute window for launch but liftoff is scheduled to occur at 7:17 am PDT (14:17 UTC) on Wednesday, June 12th.

As it stands, Falcon 9’s RCM launch will last just over one hour from start to finish. B1051 will separate from Falcon 9’s upper stage, fairing, and payload and perform a return-to-launch-site (RTLS) recovery, landing at SpaceX’s LZ-4 pad less than eight minutes after liftoff.

LZ-4 sits barely a quarter of a mile away from SLC-4E, the SpaceX-leased pad that B1051.1 will lift off from. Sadly, B1051 is unlikely to remain at SLC-4 after its (hopefully successful) landing at LZ-4 due to the fact that SpaceX has no public missions scheduled to launch from VAFB until Q1 2020 at the earliest. In fact, SpaceX is reportedly planning major organizational changes – set to begin soon after this launch is complete. As such, RCM could be SpaceX’s last launch from California for at least the next six months, a period of downtime that could easily grow to a year or more if tenuous 2020 launch dates suffer payload-side delays.

SpaceX currently has three launches scheduled from its Vandenberg pad in 2020, although one, two, or even all three could easily slip into 2021 based on the limited information available about the payloads in question. In 2021, SpaceX has a fairly busy VAFB manifest of at least six possible launches – possibly more if 2020 missions slip.

Regardless, RCM will be a good temporary send-off to SpaceX’s launch activity in California. Press photographers – unaffiliated with SpaceX – will have the first opportunity ever to remotely capture images of a Falcon 9 booster landing in daylight. Additionally, weather permitting, Vandenberg Air Force Base makes for an exceptionally beautiful venue for rocket launches thanks to the vistas and setting offered by Northern California and the Pacific Ocean.

Current forecasts suggest that the traditional fog layer will begin to clear at 7am local time, around the same time that SpaceX’s RCM webcast will kick off. With any luck, the photographers’ remote cameras will be greeted by a clear Pacific morning come liftoff.

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In a recent interview, Nikola Motor CEO Trevor Milton noted that while electric trucks like the Tesla Semi will likely dominate short-haul jobs in the future, hydrogen is still the key for tomorrow’s long-haul routes. Speaking with trucking-themed publication Trucks.com, Milton provided some insights on his vision for Nikola’s trucks, his company’s electric vehicles, and why hydrogen makes sense as a sustainable source for propulsion.

Nikola Motor is still a small company, and it is attempting to breach a market that is populated by giants such as Volvo and Daimler. To make this endeavor a success, Milton noted that he needs to “build the iPhone of trucking,” which involves an ecosystem that does not just involve a vehicle, but its fueling infrastructure as well.

“Apple would not be Apple if the iPhone was just a phone. We don’t just provide you with the truck. It was about building the best back end a phone has ever had. And that’s what we do with Nikola… We provide you with all the fuel for the first million miles. When you sign on for Nikola we put in a hydrogen station with all your fuel covered, without any cost variation, for seven years. No one else will do that,” Milton said.

Nikola is yet to deploy its trucks to the market, and other disruptive companies like Tesla have unveiled trucks of their own. Tesla, for its part, designed the Semi as a fully-electric truck, just like its other vehicles. Amidst the rising competition in the green trucking segment, Nikola has also expressed its interest in offering battery-only versions of its vehicles. Milton explained this strategy in his recent interview, admitting that for some tasks, battery-electric trucks simply make sense.

“Around long-haul, you have more advantage on the hydrogen side because it’s lighter. It’s all about freight weight, or how much it costs to move a freight-ton per mile. There’s advantages to both infrastructures, but we’re mainly focused on the hydrogen side. We just offer battery-electric so we can tell people we’ll shoot you straight. There are areas where hydrogen does not make sense,” he said.

Nevertheless, the Nikola CEO maintained his stance on hydrogen, arguing that batteries still have disadvantages in terms of weight and cost. Milton also mentioned the ethical issues surrounding lithium mining; an issue that has been closely related to the emerging electric car industry, though he did state that batteries are a “really good solution” for short-haul tasks.

“The battery alone in an electric truck is going to cost $200,000. We’re shooting for an internal cost of $150,000 for our entire Nikola truck. Our truck also weighs less than the batteries in an electric truck. Now, electric is going to kick our butt in short-haul because it’s a really good solution, but electric trucks are not one size fits all. Right now, they’re digging up mines with child labor to pull lithium out to make batteries, and I’m tired of it. The only things that you can use and reuse indefinitely are water and hydrogen. It is the only resource that will not go away. That’s why we picked the hydrogen route.

“Our hydrogen trucks also take a big battery, so I can’t point the finger at anyone else. I have the same problem everybody else has, and I’m trying to get rid of it. The electric powertrain is the powertrain of the future. How we store the energy for it has got to change. We’ve got to figure out a way, whether it’s through ultra-capacitors or whatever it may be, where you can store all that energy without disrupting these scarce resources. Then the price will come down low enough that we can finally win,” Milton stated.

Battery technology continues to improve with the continued adoption of electric propulsion. Tesla, for its part, is working on removing cobalt from its batteries altogether, allowing the company to address the humanitarian issues surrounding cobalt mines in areas such as the Republic of Congo. During the recently held annual shareholder meeting, Tesla CEO Elon Musk even hinted at Tesla potentially entering the mining business, as a means to acquire the necessary materials for its products’ batteries.

Since April 2018, SpaceX has successfully raised more than $1.24 billion through the sale of equity, likely sold to investors by extrapolating the company’s current record of success to include the potential of its next two products, Starlink and Starship.

Thanks to SpaceX’s successful streak of fundraising, the company is now valued at $33.3 billion according to sources that spoke with CNBC reporter Michael Sheetz. The same source indicated that demand for SpaceX equity remains strong as the company seeks to continue extremely expensive development and production programs. Most notably, SpaceX is simultaneously building two full-scale orbital Starship prototypes at separate facilities in Texas and Florida, readying an earlier Starhopper testbed for serious test flights, and is in the midst of ramping up its Starlink satellite production to levels unprecedented in the history of spaceflight.

Put simply, with SpaceX’s Starship and Starlink programs simultaneously entering into capital-intensive phases of development and production, the company has a huge amount of work on its plate. Most of that work involves testing prototypes with technologies that are frequently unprecedented, as well as refining those designs into something final and worthy of serious production. In the case of Starship, a great deal of integrated testing and design finalization lies ahead before SpaceX can even think about starting serial production of its ~50m (160 ft) tall steel Starships or ~60m (200 ft) Super Heavy boosters.

Although large-scale aerospace development programs already tend to be very expensive, SpaceX (led by CEO Elon Musk) has structured its Starship/Super Heavy development program to be extremely hardware-rich. This is another way to say that prototypes are constantly being built, designs are ever-changing, and hardware is constantly being severely damaged (or even destroyed) during fast-paced testing. SpaceX (and Musk) have often been famous for preferring development programs that move fast and break things, delivering knowledge and optimizing designs through lessons learned (often the hard way). SpaceX also values “scrappiness” in its programs, although that sadly ends up coming at the cost of employee pay (below industry standards) and benefits (scarce bonuses, no 401K-matching, extreme hours, minimal work-life balance).

Put it all together and the results of SpaceX-style development programs have frequently defied cemented industry expectations and beliefs. SpaceX has built – from scratch – entire launch vehicles (Falcon 9 V1.0) and spacecraft (Cargo Dragon) 5-10 times cheaper than NASA believed possible. SpaceX has successfully developed a commercially viable style of reusable rockets and took just ~30 months to go from its first attempted landing to a successful booster recovery and less than 15 months after that to reuse its first booster on a commercial, orbital-class launch. Competitors that vehemently denied that SpaceX would succeed are now 5-10 years behind with disinterested responses to the reusable titan that is Falcon 9/Falcon Heavy.

Still, while SpaceX’s record of commercial and technical spaceflight success is second-to-none since the Apollo Program and the early days of the Space Shuttle, even its extraordinarily cost-effective development style requires major funding in the face of ambitions as grand as Starship and Starlink.

Starlink races ahead

On May 23rd, SpaceX completed an extraordinarily ambitious Starlink launch debut, placing sixty “v0.9” spacecraft into low Earth orbit (LEO). Weighing no less than 16.5 tons (~36,000 lb), SpaceX’s first dedicated Starlink mission also became the heaviest payload the company has ever launched by at least ~30%. Aside from the spectacular statistics associated with the mission, SpaceX also debuted an exotic and largely unprecedented satellite form factor, stacking each flat, rectangular ~230 kg (510 lb) spacecraft like a deck of cards. With Starlink, SpaceX has also flown the first krypton-powered ion thrusters, replacing the traditional xenon to cut as much as $100,000 (or even more) from the cost of each satellite.

“We continue to track the progress of the Starlink satellites during early orbit operations. At this point, all 60 satellites have deployed their solar arrays successfully, generated positive power and communicated with our ground stations. Most are already using their onboard propulsion system to reach their operational altitude and have made initial contact using broadband phased array antennas. SpaceX continues to monitor the constellation for any satellites that may need to be safely deorbited. All the satellites have maneuvering capability and are programmed to avoid each other and other objects in orbit by a wide margin.” — SpaceX, May 31st

~20 days after launch, all 60 satellites are in contact with SpaceX ground controllers and all but 3-4 have managed to successfully begin raising their orbits from ~450 km to 550 km (280-340 mi). Roughly two dozen have already passed 500 km and most should reach their final orbits within 1-2 weeks.

By far the most significant news, however, was CEO Elon Musk’s confidence that SpaceX already has “sufficient capital to build an operational constellation”, likely referring to a constellation of 750-1500 spacecraft capable of either covering the entire US or offering “decent global coverage”. Of note, Musk made this comment days before SpaceX – via SEC filings – effectively announced that it has already raised more than $1B in 2019. A large portion – if not all – of that funding is thus likely bound for Starlink as the program’s shockingly small team of ~400 prepares to aggressively ramp up production.

According to both COO Gwynne Shotwell, Musk, and SpaceX, the company hopes to conduct an additional 1-5 launches of 60 Starlink satellites this year, potentially leaving SpaceX with a constellation of more than 400 satellites – with a total bandwidth of 7 terabits per second (tbps) – after just eight months of launches. Equally significant, SpaceX’s official Starlink.com website states that SpaceX wants to offer real internet service to an unspecified number of US and Canada consumers after just six launches. In other words, SpaceX could deliver the first (possibly alpha or beta) taste of consumer Starlink internet service by the end of 2019.

If SpaceX can deploy the constellation soon and Starlink reaches its cost, performance, and longevity targets, it’s safe to say that SpaceX’s private investors are going to be extraordinarily happy with their financial decision.

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Rivian’s appearance at Amazon’s re:MARS tech conference in Las Vegas last week has unveiled a new connection between the two companies via Alexa, the online mega retailer’s digital assistant. Rivian’s all-electric R1T pickup truck was shown integrated with Alexa’s smart home functionality to allow voice commands for its electronic features.

In a video published by the official re:MARS Twitter account, Rivian team member Christian Hubbell is seen demonstrating a voice command on the R1T.

“Alexa, open the hood,” he dictates into a remote device, explaining “what it’s gonna do is invoke our smart home function. It’s gonna open the front hood, and then we’re gonna be able to put [in] any groceries, packs, gear, you name it.” While Hubbell is describing the Alexa command function, the R1T hood is seen opening in the background, as instructed.

Amazon’s re:MARS 2019 event is an information and networking conference focused on artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, and other related Earth and space technologies, including self-driving. This is the event’s first year and took place June 4-7 at the Aria Resort & Casino in Las Vegas.

Rivian’s attendance at re:MARS was announced by the event’s official Twitter account, and ‘#alexaauto’ was tagged in the message, indicating the startup’s vehicles might be integrated with Alexa technology. This indication now seems to be a definite possibility based on the video demo. “What happens when you combine a thirst for adventure with automotive tech and AI? Meet the world’s first Electric Adventure Vehicle at #reMARS to find out,” the announcement tweet said while featuring the R1T on a road trip to Sedona and utilizing the truck’s recently unveiled kitchen module.

At this time, it’s unclear what Rivian’s integration with Amazon’s digital assistant will be aside from voice command functionality. The R1T truck was demonstrated at the LA and New York International Auto Shows to have numerous electronic features that would be candidates for the Alexa feature. In addition to the hood/frunk open and close function, the pickup truck’s tailgate has 180 degree mobility, the suspension can be raised and lowered as needed, and the glass roof is electrochromatic for changing colors in response to outside weather and light conditions, all operated electronically. Both the R1T and the R1S SUV are slated for production and delivery late next year.

Overall, although details are still limited regarding Rivian’s final tech offerings in its production R1T truck and R1S SUV, the opportunities and potential features are promising. In the case of Amazon, who led a $700 million dollar investment into the electric car maker in February, Rivian’s re:MARS demos and any future technology sharing would seem to be a mutually beneficial endeavor for the two companies. Perhaps more sharing is in the works with other Amazon investments such as Aurora, a self-driving startup, whose goal is to support a range of manufacturers and transportation networks with its independent software. Rivian’s vehicles will have Level 2 autonomous driving hardware installed, upgradable to Level 3 via over-the-air updates once available.

After a few late-stage schedule tweaks, SpaceX’s third Falcon Heavy launch – set to deliver 24 spacecraft to a variety of orbits – is ready to usher the US Air Force into a new age of commercial rocket refuse as early as 11:30 pm ET (03:30 UTC), June 24th.

Split among the USAF, Department of Defense (DoD) research labs, NASA, NOAA, and a few US universities, STP-2’s 24 satellites will launch aboard SpaceX’s second Falcon Heavy Block 5 rocket. Both side boosters are flight-proven, having supported Falcon Heavy Block 5’s launch debut on April 11th, just 54 days ago. If all goes as planned, STP-2 will simultaneously give the USAF the data it needs to fully certify Falcon Heavy for all military launches and set the US military up to certify flight-proven commercial rockets for future launch contracts.

Signalling just how important the company feels this mission is, a dedicated STP-2 website created by SpaceX offers an excellent explanation of all aspects of the mission, from the technical to the strategic.

“The STP-2 mission will be among the most challenging launches in SpaceX history with four separate upper-stage engine burns, three separate deployment orbits, a final propulsive passivation maneuver and a total mission duration of over six hours. In addition, the U.S. Air Force plans to reuse side boosters from the Arabsat 6A Falcon Heavy launch, recovered after a return to launch site [RTLS] landing, making it the first reused Falcon Heavy ever flown for the U.S. Air Force.

Following the ~June 1st arrival of Falcon Heavy center core B1057, all STP-2 launch hardware is now on site at SpaceX’s Pad 39A launch complex and nearby payload processing facilities. Although we will have to wait for official photo confirmation, SpaceX is likely in the late stages of integrating Falcon Heavy’s three boosters and upper stage, while some combination of DoD and SpaceX technicians are presumably in the middle of preparing all 24 STP-2 satellites for launch.

Falcon Heavy Flight 3’s next visible milestone will probably be the integrated rocket’s roll-out to Pad 39A for a routine static fire test, likely to occur 3-7 days prior to June 24th.

Record-breaking reusability

Incredibly, despite the schedule overhead likely added by this mission’s crucial pathfinder nature, the current June 24th launch date would permit side boosters B1052 and B1053 to simultaneously break SpaceX’s current booster turnaround record. Set in mid-2018 by B1045 on SpaceX’s last non-Block 5 launch, the record turnaround (time between launches) of 72 days would be beaten at 68 days for STP-2, barring any additional delays.

Whether STP-2’s side boosters literally beat SpaceX’s 72-day reusability record is immaterial to the actual significance of this milestone. If SpaceX can beat its old record as part of what is arguably its most complex launch ever, it’s safe to say that Block 5 reusability – particularly for gently-used boosters – is already a spectacular success. It also suggests that SpaceX technicians and launch engineers are becoming extremely familiar and comfortable with Falcon Heavy launch operations, to the extent that two boosters used on two Falcon Heavy launches could break SpaceX’s most significant reusability record.

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