LNG: TESLARATI

Tesla brought out its next-generation Roadster to the 2019 Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition (CVPR) conference taking place in Long Beach, California.

A video posted online by a conference attendee provided a full walkaround of the all-electric ‘halo car‘ as it was surrounded by excited onlookers taking turns capturing photographs of the futuristic steering wheel, high-tech console, and other innovative features.

CVPR is an annual event put on by the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) and the Computer Vision Foundation (CVF) for pattern recognition, computer vision, machine learning, robotics, and artificial intelligence researchers to present advances made in their fields. Various presentations, tutorials, workshops, demos, exhibitions, and social events promoting relevant topics are made available to attendees. This is the 32nd year for CVPR, taking place June 16-20 at the Long Beach Convention Center.

Tesla’s next-gen Roadster makes an appearance at CVPR 2019. | Image: LordOfBilkent/YouTube

Tesla’s next-gen Roadster makes an appearance at CVPR 2019. | Image: LordOfBilkent/YouTube

Along with Tesla’s Full Self-Driving capabilities, the next-generation Roadster may have some other features that would be of particular interest to CVPR attendees. CEO Elon Musk revealed last year that the tri-motor ‘supercar killer’ would be equipped with a feature an augmented mode that would enhance a driver’s abilities when operating the vehicle. “Definitely. Will also have Augmented Mode that will massively enhance human driving ability. Like a flying metal suit, but in car form,” he teased on Twitter in response to a question on whether the Roadster would have Autopilot. Augmented and mixed reality are computer vision problems at their core.

Furthering speculation surrounding Augmented Mode was Tesla’s former Senior Manager, Design, Andrew Kim. Prior to working at Tesla, Kim worked for Microsoft, where he helped develop the HoloLens headset, a holographic computer that allows users to see and interact with holograms within an environment. Kim’s LinkedIn profile also noted that he was “leading experiences” in Tesla’s Model S, X, 3, Semi, Roadster 2, and Model Y, as well as “confidential future products and experiences.”

Elon Musk is notoriously associated with Marvel’s famous Tony Stark character, making the heads-up display connection between Roadster and the one featured in the Iron Man suit a highly anticipated prediction. Software and technical marvels aside, the next-generation Roadster will perform to the tune of 0-60 mph in 1.9 seconds, the standing quarter-mile time in 8.9 seconds, and capable of achieving 620 miles of range thanks to a 200 kWh battery. Musk has also described a SpaceX package with cold-gas thrusters on several occasions which would push the performance of the electric car even further.

Test drives for the new Roadster are estimated to start at the end of this year. See the full walkaround video from Roadster’s appearance at CVPR 2019 below:

Welcome to the latest edition of DeepSpace! Each week, Teslarati space reporter Eric Ralph hand-crafts this newsletter to give you a breakdown of what’s happening in the space industry and what you need to know. To receive this newsletter (and others) directly and join our member-only Slack group, give us a 3-month trial for just $5.

Although the company quietly teased the concept for the first time several months ago, Firefly has released a detailed update on its Orbital Transfer Vehicle (OTV), an ambitious spacecraft meant to complement its Alpha and Beta launch vehicles. If Firefly can deliver on the independent spacecraft’s technical promises, the combination of Alpha (~$15M) and OTV could help usher in a new era of small, high-performance satellites launched on small, high-performance rockets.

In fact, Rocket Lab – currently the world’s only truly commercial smallsat launch provider – has already demonstrated the power of this new paradigm, albeit on a smaller scale. After just one failed attempt, the first successful orbital launch of the company’s Electron rocket also marked the surprise debut of a tiny third stage used to circularize the payload’s orbit. After five successful uses in orbit, Rocket Lab has taken its third stage a step further, adding redundant avionics, solar arrays, and more to effectively create an independent spacecraft/satellite bus called Photon. By all appearances, Firefly’s OTV is much larger than Photon but is functionally quite similar. By taking advantage of Alpha’s significant performance benefits compared to Electron, Firefly has designed a third stage/spacecraft capable of delivering hundreds of kilograms to geostationary orbit, the Moon, and (perhaps) beyond.

Changing the delta V game

• Generally speaking, OTV is quite small. According to Firefly’s Payload User’s Guide, the spacecraft will weigh just 130 kg (285 lb) dry and will carry perhaps 30-70 kg of xenon fuel for its electric ion thrusters. This is a critical differentiator relative to Rocket Lab’s Photon and kick stage, which rely on the inefficient (but simple and reliable) Curie chemical rocket engine.
  • According to Firefly, Alpha is designed to launch a max of 1000 kg (2200 lb) to a 200 km (125 mi) low Earth orbit (LEO). Given OTV’s ~200 kg wet mass, Alpha + OTV offer some incredible capabilities relative to the rocket’s size and design.
  • Powerful electric thrusters undeniably add a lot of complexity to any spacecraft that chooses to use them but that pain is often deemed worth it for the benefits they can offer. Most notably, ion propulsion is extremely efficient.

This graph demonstrates the potential performance benefits of Alpha + OTV relative to Alpha on its own. (Firefly)

Reading between the lines, the US Air Force has effectively confirmed that GPS III Space Vehicle 03 (SV03) – the third GPS III satellite built by Lockheed Martin – is ready for launch aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, scheduled no earlier than December 2019.

In December 2018, SpaceX successfully launched the first GPS III spacecraft aboard an expendable Falcon 9 Block 5 rocket, kicking off a launch campaign – shared between SpaceX and ULA – that will likely last until 2023 or 2024. Thus far, ULA has won a single GPS III launch contract, scheduled for July 2019, while SpaceX has won three (with options for two more). Thanks to competition forcefully reintroduced by a 2014 SpaceX lawsuit, the USAF – and thus US taxpayers – are likely saving a minimum of $50M per GPS III launch.

In late 2018, SpaceX’s closer followers were surprised to discover that brand new Falcon 9 Block 5 booster B1054 – the first to be officially certified for a critical operational military launch – was to be expended, making no attempt to land. This was confusing for several reasons.

“If Falcon 9 [was to be] expended solely because of mission performance requirements, despite the oddly low payload mass (~3800 kg) and comparatively low-energy orbit (~20,000 km), the only possible explanation for no attempted recovery would be the need for Falcon 9’s upper stage to circularize the orbit after a long coast. However, the mission parameters the USAF shopped around for would have placed the GPS III satellite into an elliptical orbit of 1000 km by 20,181 km, an orbit that would almost without a doubt leave Falcon 9 with enough propellant for a drone ship recovery.”
— Teslarati.com, December 2018

As it turns out, there was, in fact, nothing unique about the elliptical, medium-energy orbit GPS III SV01 was placed in. According to external analysis of the Falcon 9 upper stage’s final deorbit activities, SpaceX had “plenty of extra performance available”, objectively indicating that that excess performance was intentionally removed from booster B1054 at the cost of its ability to land. The (unconfirmed) reason for this is quite simple: the US Air Force chose extreme – perhaps even excessive – caution to account for the minute chance that myriad failures might happen mid-launch.

To sacrifice, or not to sacrifice

According to a USAF statement made in mid-May, GPS III Space Vehicle 03 (SV03) has been officially classed as “available for launch”, jargon that means the satellite is fully assembled and has successfully completed extensive pre-launch testing. For SpaceX’s inaugural GPS III launch (SV01), a pathfinder that carried unique wait and likely took additional processing time, SpaceX and the USAF took roughly five months to go from shipping the satellite to Florida to going vertical atop Falcon 9. More likely than not, GPS III SV03 has already begun to be prepared for transport from California to Florida, meaning that SV03 is roughly 1-2 months ahead of the schedule SV01 followed ahead of its Falcon 9 launch debut.

So: the GPS III satellite is ready for launch. The next critical milestones will be the satellite’s transport to Florida and SpaceX’s completion of the mission’s USAF-grade Falcon 9. B1054’s technically unnecessary sacrifice thus raises a question for SpaceX’s next GPS III launch, currently scheduled no earlier than December 2018: will another fresh Falcon 9 Block 5 booster be sacrificed to the gods of Obsessively Cautious Margins?

The optimist in me wants to say, “Of course!” With GPS III SV01, SpaceX perfectly demonstrated Falcon 9’s performance and permitted the USAF the luxury of expending a brand new Falcon 9 booster to satisfy the customer’s desire for extremely cautious margins. The Falcon 9 upper stage’s luxuriously expensive (in terms of delta V) deorbit burns – performed after a several-hour cost in orbit – served as another definitive demonstration of the rocket’s intentionally underutilized performance. Having demonstrated a flawless launch with margins on margins, it seems reasonable that the US Air Force would permit SpaceX the freedom to recover Falcon 9 B105x after launching GPS III SV03.

On the other hand, the USAF and Department of Defense are not exactly known for their rational, evidence-based strategies of decision-making and procurement. As such, it’s safe to say that – without official info from SpaceX or the USAF – the answer to the question of whether SpaceX will need to continue expending valuable boosters for GPS launches is entirely up in the air – call it a 50-50 split.

In the meantime, GPS III SV03’s Falcon 9 booster is likely several months away from shipping off to SpaceX’s McGregor, Texas facilities for static fire testing. Up next for SpaceX is a critical Falcon Heavy launch that could secure the rocket’s certification for US military launches, become the first USAF mission to utilize flight-proven SpaceX boosters, and pave the way for the USAF to develop a dedicated certification process for launching on commercially-developed reusable rockets.

Check out Teslarati’s newsletters for prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket launch and recovery processes

Tesla Semi competitor Nikola Motors has opened its new headquarters in Phoenix, Arizona, according to CEO Trevor Milton. The facility will house the company’s design, research and development teams.

“Nikola HQ is awesome. Just opened last week,” Milton announced via Twitter alongside a photo of what appears to be a lobby inside the building. Most of the company’s product line was pictured, to include the Nikola One and Nikola Tre hydrogen-electric semi trucks, the all-electric Nikola NZT off-road vehicle, and the Nikola WAV sit-down electric watercraft. Only the Nikola Two, the day cab variant of their hydrogen-electric semi truck unveiled in April with the WAV and NZT, was missing from the image. Milton also suggested that tours of the headquarters may be open to the public as soon as August.

Earlier this year, Nikola released details surrounding a deal made with Saint Holdings, LLC for 400 acres in Pinal County, Arizona where the company will build its manufacturing facility. The location is inside Heritage, an 11,438-acre prime development area, within the Inland Port Arizona portion of the site, itself comprising 3,000 acres and dubbed a “manufacturing mega site.” Nikola’s presence in the area is expected to bring an estimated $1 billion in economic stimulus to the region by 2024.

Nikola HQ is awesome. Just opened last week. pic.twitter.com/30GJfKkIbu

— Trevor Milton (@nikolatrevor) June 17, 2019

Nikola’s latest product unveilings took place in Scottsdale at Nikola World 2019, a two-day event featuring a presentation, breakout sessions, track demos, and vehicle tours. In the weeks since, Milton and his team have continued to promote their products and mission via trade show appearances and interviews. One of the notable topics discussed during that time was Nikola’s commitment to hydrogen as a fuel source while acknowledging the advantages of fully-electric trucking systems for short-haul tasks.

“Around long-haul, you have more advantage on the hydrogen side because it’s lighter. It’s all about freight weight, or how much it costs to move a freight-ton per mile. There’s advantages to both infrastructures, but we’re mainly focused on the hydrogen side. We just offer battery-electric so we can tell people we’ll shoot you straight. There are areas where hydrogen does not make sense,” Milton said during an interview with Trucks.com. “The battery alone in an electric truck is going to cost $200,000. We’re shooting for an internal cost of $150,000 for our entire Nikola truck. Our truck also weighs less than the batteries in an electric truck. Now, electric is going to kick our butt in short-haul because it’s a really good solution, but electric trucks are not one size fits all.”

We will soon be open to public. Probably in August.

— Trevor Milton (@nikolatrevor) June 17, 2019

As part of Nikola’s commitment to hydrogen power, the trucking startup also announced a $14 million dollar fuel cell lab investment at the end of March this year, with several hundred dollars planned overall. The laboratory represents a critical component in the company’s plan to provide high-quality, high-efficiency fuel cell technology at a pace quick enough to meet the needs of the trucking industry as it drives towards an alternative-power future. Nikola plans to centralize the development, validation, and testing of its entire fuel cell system in one place, reducing the time required to meet its mission milestones.

Nikola will break ground on its main manufacturing facility later this year in Coolidge. Initial production is estimated to be 35,000 semi trucks annually and grow to an eventual 50,000 built per year. In the interim, Fitzgerald Glider Kits is producing the Class 8 long haulers with full production planned for 2022-2023.

Porsche Cars North America president and CEO Klaus Zellmer recently shared his insights about what he perceives to be the upcoming widespread adoption of electric cars. In an op-ed published on USA Today, Zellmer argued that the demand for electric vehicles is definite at this point, and it will only be a matter of time before the United States’ roads are filled with EVs.

While the Porsche CEO continues to prepare for the arrival of the Taycan, he nonetheless gave credit to Tesla for making “inroads” in the push for battery-electric vehicles. Zellmer argued that Tesla has all but proven that there is “significant demand” for electric cars, particularly those which combine sustainability with performance and design.

“Last year, the Model 3 outsold any other premium sedan in the US. We know that American consumers embrace new technology, especially if it delivers a new experience. And once a technology catches on, consumers respond well to expanded choice as competitors enter the field. Just look at how many models of SUV you can buy today, or the proliferation of smartphones since Apple introduced the iPhone in 2007,” he wrote.

Apart from the demand for electric vehicles being all but certain, the Porsche CEO added that the expansion of EV charging infrastructure is starting to hit its stride, as shown by the efforts of companies like Electrify America, ChargePoint, and EVgo. Zellmer also argued that electric cars are cleaner than they have ever been, thanks to a grid that is steadily becoming greener.

Nevertheless, perhaps the most notable sign for the Porsche CEO was the demand the German carmaker is seeing for its first modern all-electric vehicle, the Taycan. According to Zellmer, there is enough interest in the Taycan to fully account for Porsche’s production of the vehicle through late 2020.

“We already have enough interest to account for all the Taycans we expect to deliver in the US in the first year, through late 2020. That’s powerful, given that the final production model has yet to be unveiled. And the market potential is so strong that we just announced we will switch our best-selling model, the Macan compact SUV, to all-electric in the next few years,” he wrote.

A particularly interesting tidbit given by Zellner in his op-ed involves some details about the demographic that the Taycan has been attracting. The CEO mentioned that fewer than half of the Taycan’s reservation holders are current Porsche owners, but from those who are, the biggest single group own a Porsche 911, the company’s flagship vehicle.

“The fact that someone can love the sound and feel of an exhilarating flat-six gas engine and also be attracted to the silent power of a performance EV says volumes about the capacity of the US market for this new power train,” Zellmer stated.

Porsche is currently preparing for the launch of the Taycan, which is expected to be held this coming September. The final details of the vehicle are yet to be released by the company, though reports have emerged stating that the car will come in three variants: a base rear-wheel-drive Taycan that’s equipped with an 80 kWh battery pack, a mid-range Taycan 4S that’s fitted with a 96 kWh battery, and a top-of-the-line Taycan Turbo, which will also feature a 96 kWh battery. Recent reports have also hinted at possible upcoming variants for the vehicle, such as the Taycan Turbo S and a lighter, RWD Taycan GTS that will likely be optimized for track driving.

The full text of Porsche Cars North America CEO and president Klaus Zellmer insights on electric car adoption, Tesla, and the Taycan could be accessed here.

A recent interview with GM CEO Mary Barra from Axios has provided some of the executive’s insights about full self-driving solutions, competition from Tesla, and the Detroit-based company’s strategy for the deployment of its autonomous driving tech. Barra proved conservative, emphasizing that GM will not deploy its full self-driving suite until it is safer than a human driver.

The emergence of full self-driving technologies is all but inevitable at this point, with companies such as Waymo and electric car makers such as Tesla actively pursuing the development and refinement of autonomous driving solutions. Among the industry’s players, Tesla appears to have the momentum, as the company has the largest amount of real-world driving data gathered from hundreds of thousands of vehicles currently on the road. Augmented by the rollout of Tesla’s custom self-driving computer, Elon Musk has been optimistic with the company’s full self-driving rollout plans. Musk has stated that the company’s FSD suite will be “feature complete” by the end of 2019, and that it will have around a million vehicles capable of being used as autonomous “robotaxis” next year.

When asked by the publication about the competition from Tesla and if it is essential for a company to be the first to deploy an autonomous driving system, the GM CEO response was cautious. “We want to be safe. And so that’s what’s motivating us. We understand this is life-changing technology,” Barra said, later adding that “there are so many different ways that we can improve our customers’ lives by having this technology, not only from a safety, but from a productivity (standpoint), what they can do. But what they do, we want to make sure they do safely.”

Barra’s rather conservative statements in her recent interview feature a rather different tone than her previous forecasts for GM’s full self-driving solutions. Speaking at the Dealbook conference last November, Barra stated that GM was on schedule to deploy its full self-driving technology in 2019. “We’re on track, with our rate of learning, to be able to do that next year,” she said. During her segment, Barra noted that GM had a strategy to show that its vehicles are safer than human drivers. She also mentioned that GM Cruise’s autonomous cars were already capable of running safely at around 30 mph, though the service was limited to a small area.

GM eventually softened its stance on its 2019 target release. In a statement to The Detroit News in April, GM noted that Cruise’s driverless taxi service would be “gated by safety” when it goes get deployed. A report from The Information published this June also suggested that in April, GM Cruise’s full self-driving technology experienced a massive failure in the presence of Honda Motor CEO Takahiro Hachigo, a major investor in the company. During the demo, the vehicle’s autonomous driving system reportedly stopped, forcing the car’s backup driver to take control. The vehicle then refused to reactivate, forcing the Honda CEO to wait until he was picked up by an operational GM Cruise autonomous car.

Amidst these reports, Barra did not commit to a launch date for the company’s driverless vehicle service. Nevertheless, in her Axios interview, Barra stated that she does not regret the company’s aggressive 2019 target. “It’s a rallying cry. And I think it’s been motivational,” she said.

While GM Cruise might have less real-world miles compared to Tesla and Waymo, the self-driving unit of the Detroit-based carmaker has attracted a notable number of investors nonetheless. In its latest fundraising round alone, GM Cruise was valued at $19 billion on its own. That’s quite impressive, considering the company’s progress with its technology so far. Tesla, on the other hand, is valued at $39 billion as of writing, and that covers the company’s electric vehicle and energy storage business, as well as its full self-driving technology. This was addressed in a previous note from Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas, who noted that TSLA investors are “undervaluing” the company’s autonomous driving systems. “We believe investors underappreciate/undervalue Tesla’s Autonomy business. Many investors to whom we speak do not explicitly include Tesla’s Autonomy business in their valuation of the company,” Jonas said.

SpaceX has silently announced that Falcon 9 won a contract for a South Korean military communications satellite, currently scheduled to launch from the company’s Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) LC-40 pad no earlier than November 2019.

Subcontracted from Lockheed Martin to Airbus Defense and Space in 2016, the satellite – known as Anasis II (formerly KMilSatCom 1) – is based on a common bus built by Airbus and could weigh anywhere from 3500 to 6000 kilograms (7500-13,200 lb). Falcon 9 will be tasked with launching Anasis II to geostationary transfer orbit (GTO), after which the satellite will use its own onboard propulsion to circularize the orbit and begin operations. Although the Korean contract brings SpaceX one step closer to its goal of 18-21 launches (excluding Starlink) in 2019, it also raises the question: what mystery missions are missing from public launch manifests?

Manifest Mystery

As previously discussed in both Teslarati articles and newsletters, comments from SpaceX executives in February and May 2019 reiterate the company’s expectation of 18-21 launches in 2019, excluding Starlink. Hofeller’s “more than 21 launches” admittedly came more than two months before a catastrophic Crew Dragon failure threw the spacecraft’s launch manifest into limbo.

Three months later, SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell reiterated the idea that SpaceX could beat its 2018 launch record (21 launches) or at least get close. Curiously, she specifically noted that SpaceX’s purported 18-21 launch manifest excluded Starlink missions, of which SpaceX has already launched one. In short, SpaceX has completed 7 launches in 2019 (6 if Starlink v0.9 is excluded). The company’s public manifest – unofficially cobbled together by fans – shows 9 more launches scheduled for a total of 15 non-Starlink launches in 2019.

To meet Shotwell’s expected 18-21 non-Starlink launches, anywhere from 3 to 6 missions are apparently missing from publicly-managed launch manifests. It’s unclear if SpaceX actually has enough launch-ready customers to achieve those ambitious targets. Additionally, SpaceX is currently on track to complete 8 launches total (1 Starlink) in the first half of 2019. In 2017 and 2018 (two years without interruption), SpaceX consistently launched an equivalent number (or more) missions in the first half of the year when compared to the second half, and both years have maxed out at 9 launches in H2.

SpaceX will have to beat that H2 record to reach 18 launches in 2019 even if Starlink missions are counted. Meanwhile, SpaceX says that as many as 1-5 additional Starlink launches are scheduled for 2019, bringing the total number of missions as high as 20-27 in differing best-case scenarios. Practically speaking, between SpaceX’s Pad 39A and LC-40 launch facilities, the company could easily maintain a biweekly or even weekly cadence (13-26 launches in H2 2019). The real constraint, however, is hardware availability – i.e. whether SpaceX has the rocket pieces and flight-ready satellite(s) it needs to launch a given mission.

Can SpaceX do it?

This is an extremely hard question to answer, as all details that really matter are of the organizational, company-secrets sort that SpaceX just doesn’t publicize. From a technical and practical perspective, the answer is a reasonable confident “yes.” If Falcon Heavy Flight 3 (STP-2) is completed successfully, SpaceX will have an impressive fleet of at least 8 flight-proven Falcon 9-class boosters. Even assuming that no progress is made beyond the current Block 5 turnaround average of ~110 days (~3.5 months), SpaceX’s current fleet should be able to immediately support four launches and an additional 8-12 before the end of 2019.

The primary limit, then, would be SpaceX’s ability to produce Falcon 9 upper stages and fairings, as well as the stamina and quality of the company’s managers and employees. Even then, the question of SpaceX’s 3-6 mystery launches will remain unanswered until either the customer or launch provider choose to open up. For now, we wait…

Check out Teslarati’s newsletters for prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket launch and recovery processes