LNG: TESLARATI

Local amateur photographer and spaceflight fan Michael Tapes has graciously shared a new aerial view of SpaceX’s Florida Starship facility, where dozens of workers can be seen buzzing around what is hoped to become the first orbital-class prototype of the massive spaceship and upper stage.

Tapes’ aerial footage offers a unique look at the layout of SpaceX’s Florida site as of July 9th, illustrating just how active and expansive it is. Some workers can be seen building something (perhaps preparing a new worksite) under a large, white tent, while another group surveys two large Starship segments and a third works to prepare new stainless steel ring sections. Of note, those two large Starship segments appear to be bereft of any obvious activity, perhaps a consequence of a fire that caused about $100,000 in damage the day prior (July 8th).

In fact, the shipping container that took what looks like the entirety of fire-related damage is visible on the west side of the SpaceX facility’s main hangar. Workers could be seen heading inside the extremely scorched container, likely removing debris, cleaning up the site of the incident, and preparing to scrap the damaged container itself.

Thankfully, nobody was injured by the fire and ~$100K of damage is certainly an inconvenience but is definitely nothing more for a multibillion-dollar company like SpaceX. Given that dozens of vehicles are visible in the parking lot, it’s safe to say that tons of work is ongoing under the roofs of the site’s many covered buildings, potentially designing Starship/Super Heavy, working on the rocket’s first orbital-class thrust structures, building new steel ring segments, and much more. With any luck, work on orbital Starship assembly and integration has already resumed following the small July 8th fire.

Star(ship) Wars

Speaking of that work, prior to the last week or so of progress on SpaceX South Texas’ own orbital Starship prototype, both Florida and Texas appeared to be more or less tied with two large Starship segments each and various other 9m-diameter subsections spread around their respective facilities. Impressively, Boca Chica has been marked by a flurry of recent work as multiple in-process steel rings were stacked on top of the Texas Starship’s propulsion and tankage section.

In just the last two weeks of June, workers thus pushed through the brutal South Texas heat and humidity to stack three new sections of fuselage, literally doubling the height of Boca Chica’s (hopefully) orbital-class Starship prototype in a dozen or so days. The ship’s conical nose section continues to be polished, while some sort of additional work is likely going on inside, away from public view. It’s hard to get a good overhead view but it’s safe to assume that – in the large barrel sections both in Florida and Texas – technicians are working to install (or at least prepare for) stainless steel tank domes, one of the last major finishing touches for spacecraft’s tank sections.

A huge amount of work remains for both sites but the visible progress as new ship segments are stacked and welded together is undeniably cathartic and satisfying. Working 10-12 hour shifts exposed to the Texas and Florida summer sun, heat, and wildlife is in no uncertain terms bound to be a hellish experience, but at least the hard work is so obviously producing results.

The most exciting kind of grass-watching

Back in Florida, several additional Starship barrel sections are in various stages of work, at least two of which appear to be nearly ready for stacking atop the propellant tank section already being assembled. Meanwhile, propellant tank domes were spotted in different stages of fabrication inside the Florida facility’s main hangar-cum-production-line, awaiting their turn to leave the building and prepare for installation on Starship East.

All said and done, once those visible segments are installed, Starship East will (at least by appearances) be neck and neck with its Texas sibling once more. In reality, there is likely no actual race between the two sites and they are reportedly sharing any critical discoveries and lessons-learned. Nevertheless, humans are notoriously competitive and one can only begin to imagine the (hopefully friendly) rivalry forming between the geographically distinct teams.

At the same time, SpaceX’s Florida team has several home-field advantages, so to speak, owing to their proximity to the several hundred SpaceXers working at the company’s Florida launch facilities and recovery fleet. Additionally, Florida’s Starship facility is just a few dozen miles away from SpaceX’s Kennedy Space Center Pad 39A, the most likely site of Starship’s (and Super Heavy’s) first suborbital and orbital launch attempts.

At the end of the day, a little friendly internal competition and – more so – a literal Starship A/B test are bound to be a huge benefit for SpaceX’s next-gen launch vehicle program, significantly increasing the speed at which the company can make mistakes, solve problems, and get Starship ready for orbit.

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SpaceX CEO Elon Musk announced via Twitter that Starhopper’s first untethered hover tests – flying as high as ~20 meters (65 ft) – could be attempted as early as Tuesday, July 16th.

SpaceX engineers and technicians have been working around the clock the last several months to prepare Starhopper for flight and – even more importantly – prepare the company’s next-gen Raptor engine to ensure it is reliable enough to risk losing the Hopper in flight. Neither task is a small challenge, with both pushing SpaceX’s workforce into new and (partially) unfamiliar territory, ranging from Starhopper’s use of steel propellant tanks to Raptor’s adoption of liquid methane and oxygen instead of the kerosene/oxygen or hydrazine SpaceX’s workforce is familiar with

Back in April 2019, SpaceX – having installed Raptor SN02 roughly two weeks prior – static fired Starhopper for the first time ever, simultaneously lifting the massive craft a few inches off the ground as it strained against its tethers. Three and a half months later, SpaceX engineers appear to have finally solved a mechanical resonance (vibration) issue that plagued all Raptors that came before SN06, forcing aborts, limiting test length, and even destroying or damaging engines beyond repair.

As previously discussed on Teslarati, Starhopper’s first true flight tests have been a long time coming. 9m (30 ft) in diameter and perhaps 25m (80 ft) tall, Starhopper is an extremely unusual and visually bizarre test article, effectively acting like a (vaguely) mobile Raptor test stand and a full-fidelity way for SpaceX’s aluminum-focused welding and fabrication crews to gain experience building a moderately functional stainless steel rocket.

Last month, there was some hope that Raptor SN05 would be capable of supporting Starhopper’s first hover tests as early as mid-to-late June, but it’s understood that the vibrational issue described above by Musk damaged the engine during one of its final acceptance tests, delaying Starhopper testing by several weeks. Had that resonance issue been solved months ago, it’s probable that Raptor SN02 could have taken Starhopper directly from its first static fires to untethered flight operations in April.

According to CEO Elon Musk, SpaceX’s Raptor manufacturing team is rapidly moving from a development-focused line to something more like mass-production. Once the design has been more thoroughly pinned down, the production ramp could max out with up to two Raptor engines completed daily, averaging out to an annual production rate of an incredible ~500 engines.

Additionally, Musk tacitly acknowledged that SpaceX’s recent development Raptors likely cost around $2M apiece, but the final mass-production cost could drop as low as $200,000 per engine, almost unfathomable for such a high-performance, cutting-edge engine.

For the time being, SpaceX will be focused on wringing out any subtler design flaws and general bugs in Raptor as the engines are gradually produced and tested at increasing volumes. This includes hop/hover tests like those Starhopper is scheduled to attempt next Tuesday, as well as even wilder ~20-km suborbital flight tests that could come once one or both of SpaceX’s “orbital” Starship prototypes are fully integrated.

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After a brisk week of no fewer than three lengthy static fire tests, SpaceX has effectively confirmed that a critical vibration-related fault was solved, delivering the company’s latest completed Raptor engine to Boca Chica, Texas earlier today.

SpaceX technicians are now in the process of installing the engine – believed to be Raptor SN06 – on Starhopper, a low-fidelity prototype meant to act as a sort of flying testbed for Starship technologies and a mobile test stand for Raptor test fires. According to SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, if Raptor SN06 is installed, successfully checks out, and supports Starhopper’s first untethered hover test within the next 3-7 days, he will deliver an updated presentation on SpaceX’s Starhip/Super Heavy launch vehicle and (hopefully) the company’s plans for the Moon and Mars around the end of July.

This Raptor is the third to be installed on Starhopper. The first engine (SN02) was installed in March 2019 and became the first Raptor to ignite as part of a vehicle meant to eventually fly. During a duo of more or less successful test fires, Starhopper strained against its tethers, lifting a few inches off the ground. Although it did technically mark Starhopper’s inaugural hop, Raptor SN02 also suffered damage during the tests that demanded its removal.

As recently noted by observant fans after Musk revealed that SpaceX had been dealing with a “600 Hz” vibration issue, the horn-like noise during shutdown actually happens to be in the 600 Hz range, with an additional spike at 300 Hz a likely sign of an issue with acoustic and/or mechanical resonance. With SN06, SpaceX engineers and test/production technicians have managed to rapidly implement a fix for that undesirable resonance, powering through several successful static fires with durations as high as 80+ seconds, approaching the propellant storage limits of SpaceX’s McGregor test facilities.

Raptor SN04?

Shortly after its static fire tests in Boca Chica, Raptor SN02 was removed. According to a source familiar with the test process, the engine was brought up to McGregor, TX and repaired before SpaceX technicians – urged by CEO Elon Musk – effectively ran the engine until it failed catastrophically. Some two months after its removal (early June), a new Raptor engine – this time believed to be Raptor SN04, effectively an inert test article – was installed on Starhopper for a handful of days.

SN04 was exclusively used to check fitment and verify Raptor’s thrust vector control (TVC) gumball capabilities – quite successfully, by all appearances. A few days after installation, it was removed and shipped elsewhere. Subsequently, Raptor SN05 was tested in McGregor with the hopes that it would be able to support the first Starhopper hover tests, but the vibration issue described by Musk caused damage or at least killed confidence that the engine (a single point of failure on Starhopper) was reliable enough to support hover tests.

Raptor SN06 thus entered our story, arriving at McGregor around July 4th. SpaceX’s world-class team of engineers and technicians demonstrated their famous speed and agility, firing up SN06 less than 24 hours after its arrival. This initial test showed nothing out of order and was followed by no less than 3-4 30-80-second static fire tests, all of which were more or less successful. Per Musk, things were looking good as of July 8th, and Raptor’s July 11th arrival at Boca Chica is a foolproof confirmation that the engine is healthy and ready for the Raptor family’s first true flight.

Stay tuned for coverage of SpaceX’s imminent Starhopper static fire and hover test campaign.

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On July 2nd, Twitter user Sideralmente (@astroperinaldo) spotted a sooty Falcon 9 Block 5 booster arriving at SpaceX’s Pad 39A hangar facilities, currently operating as a sort of defacto refurbishment hub.

Likely a prelude to a near-term launch, SpaceX has several missions scheduled over the next few months. More likely than not, all of them will fly on flight-proven Falcon 9 boosters, now so common that launching new boosters has started to feel exceedingly rare and unusual. July 2nd’s booster spotting is also a rare (albeit slightly less rare) treat, given the general lack of access (aside from a bus tour) members of the public have to Kennedy Space Center’s operational facilities and the total lack of access they have to Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, home of SpaceX’s most active launch pad (LC-40).

CRS-18

Up next for SpaceX is Cargo Dragon CRS-18, the spacecraft’s second International Space Station (ISS) resupply mission this year. At least over the last 2-3 years, SpaceX and NASA have been fairly consistent with Cargo Dragon launches in the winter, late-spring/early-summer, and late-fall (Q1, Q2/Q3, Q4) for an average of three launches annually. 2018/2019 is no different: CRS-16 launched in early-December 2018 and CRS-17 in early-May 2019, while CRS-18 is scheduled to launch NET 7:35 pm ET, July 21st and CRS-19 is targeted for early-December 2019.

Meanwhile, CRS-18 is also expected to be the first time a NASA mission launches on a flight-proven Falcon 9 Block 5 booster, potentially paving the way for NASA’s first launch on a twice-flown Block 5 booster with CRS-19 – hopefully later this year. Of course, that subsequent milestone will depend on a successful launch and landing during CRS-18. Falcon 9 booster B1056 – previously tasked with launching CRS-17 on May 4th, 2019 – is assigned to the mission and has been speedily refurbished for its next mission. Assuming the static fire goes well and there are no anomalies over the next 11 days, B1056 will launch twice in 78 days, a close second to B1048, B1052, and B1053 – all tied for first place at 74 days.

AMOS-17

Following CRS-18, SpaceX’s next launch is expected to occur soon after, launching Spacecom’s AMOS-17 communications satellite on a Falcon 9 (likely flight-proven) no earlier than early-August, although the tail-end of July is also a possibility. This mission will be extremely symbolic, owing to the fact that AMOS-17 is effectively an insurance-funded replacement for AMOS-6, destroyed on September 1st, 2016 when Falcon 9 suffered a catastrophic failure.

Thankfully, since that failure nearly three years ago, Falcon 9 has performed admirably, suffering no publicly-known failures or partial failures during its primary mission, although SpaceX has suffered two failed booster landing attempts over the same period.

It’s possible that the mystery booster spotted above is meant for AMOS-17, although that’s far from certain. Based on an image showing the core number, it is almost certainly B104X, while the second digit could easily be a 7 or a 9. If the booster in question is B1047, the odds are much better that it’s wrapping up refurbishment and waiting at 39A for CRS-18 to launch before heading to LC-40.

Starlink?

On the other hand, if the booster in question is B1049, it can be all but guaranteed that AMOS-17 will not launch on it, the reason being that – quite literally burned by its last experience with Falcon 9 – Spacecom probably doesn’t want to be the first SpaceX customer to launch on a thrice-flown booster. At the same time, SpaceX is probably exceptionally conscious of the need to ensure mission success and has no interest in adding risk to the AMOS-17 mission profile, no matter how minor.

B1049 launched for the third time in support of SpaceX’s first dedicated Starlink launch on May 23rd, known internally as Starlink v0.9. At this point in time, B1046.3 is believed to be assigned to Crew Dragon’s in-flight abort (IFA) test, expected no earlier than Q4 2019. B1048.3’s status is unknown since the rocket successfully completed its third launch in February 2019. With B1049’s newfound history as the first SpaceX booster to launch on a completely internal mission, it would make a lot of sense for SpaceX to reuse B1049 for the next Starlink mission.

Simultaneously, SpaceX could demonstrate the first launch of a thrice-flown Falcon 9 booster without pushing that risk onto customers, opening up B1048 and future thrice-flown boosters for near-term commercial missions. A step further, this would set SpaceX up perfectly to use internal Starlink missions as full-fidelity demonstrations of booster reuse milestones, going from the four launches to five, six, seven, and beyond.

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