Tesla’s Q1 2020 production and delivery estimates: What Wall St is expecting


Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is preparing to release its delivery numbers for the first quarter of 2020 later this week. Analysts listed by FactSet have solidified their estimates as to how many electric vehicles the company has delivered during the first three months of the year.

Rob Maurer of the Tesla Daily Podcast described the numerous predictions Wall Street analysts, financial publications, and others hold for Tesla’s first quarter. Noting the expected drop in numbers compared to the fourth quarter of 2019 because of the COVID-19 pandemic, several sources have listed their projected delivery figures to be above the 75,000 to 80,000 range that Credit Suisse released yesterday. Credit Suisse’s revised estimates came amidst an over 5% spike in TSLA stock on Tuesday’s trading.

FactSet has indicated that Wall Street expects Tesla to report deliveries of 91,694 vehicles for Q1 2020. This figure would show an 18% drop in deliveries considering the roughly 112,000 vehicles that Tesla delivered in the fourth quarter of 2019. However, year-over-year growth would still indicate a significant 46% rise in deliveries despite the closing of both the Fremont factory on March 24 and Giga Shanghai earlier this year.

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FactSet’s estimates for Tesla’s Q1 2020 results are:

  • 91,964 Deliveries
  • $6.19B Revenue
  • $0.08 Non-GAAP EPS
  • -$0.089 GAAP EPS
  • -$478M Free Cash Flow

These are the numbers for Tesla’s Q4 2019:

  • 112,000 Deliveries
  • $6.368B Revenue
  • $2.14 Non-GAAP EPS
  • $0.58 GAAP EPS
  • $$1.013B Free Cash Flow

Maurer notes that FactSet’s estimates may not include updated analyst expectations that are adjusted for the potential effects of the coronavirus pandemic. This event has slowed Tesla’s delivery rate and virtually effected every automaker in the world for the past month. Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley, for one, has stated that many analysts have vocally told him they expect Tesla’s Q1 deliveries to be around 80,000, according to NASDAQ.

As for the Tesla Daily Podcast host, he noted that the effects of the C-19 pandemic may be felt more in the second quarter. “I think the bigger hit is going to come in Q2. I think people taking delivery in Q1 probably already had finances lined up. They probably had this decision made for a while. Tesla is probably not able to sell as many vehicles from inventory at the end of the quarter, but I don’t think that is going to be some massive hit,” he said.

The coronavirus has been felt by every single automaker across the globe, and Tesla is no exception. Interestingly enough, Tesla is expected to still hold a somewhat impressive quarter despite the loss of production in China and the United States due to the virus. Part of this may be be due to the company’s initiatives such as “contactless deliveries” and other safety measures that ensure customers are not put into harm’s way when taking delivery of their new cars.

Tesla’s delivery figures are expected to be released later this week.

Watch the Tesla Daily Podcast‘s breakdown of Wall Street’s estimates for Tesla’s Q1 2020 delivery and production numbers below.

Disclosure: I have no ownership in shares of TSLA and have no plans to initiate any positions within 72 hours.

Tesla’s Q1 2020 production and delivery estimates: What Wall St is expecting

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Tesla’s Supercharger V3 ramp in Europe is about to hit Ludicrous Mode


It appears that Tesla’s Supercharger V3 ramp in Europe is accelerating, with a shipment of new stalls from Giga New York set to arrive in the region within the coming weeks. These Supercharger stalls may very well be used by Tesla to build some of the region’s first permanent V3 installations. 

Back in January, Tesla CEO Elon Musk stated that the deployment of the Supercharger V3 stalls would be ramping this year, not just in the United States but in foreign territories as well. This announcement was augmented by reports from the Tesla community depicting sites across Europe where Supercharger V3 stalls will reportedly be established. 

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Reports from Tesla ship tracker @VedaPrime have revealed that Maersk Ohio is carrying 16 V3 Superchargers from Gigafactory Buffalo to Rotterdam, a municipality in the Netherlands. The ship is expected to arrive at the European country in early April, though the installation of the V3 Superchargers may experience delays due to the onset of the coronavirus. 

Interestingly enough, the supercharge.info has listed a total of 62 Supercharger V3 stalls planned for construction across sites in Apeldoorn, Rijwijk and Uden. With this in mind, it appears that the 16 stalls coming in Maersk Ohio may very well be for one of the country’s planned Supercharger V3 sites. 

It’s just not the Netherlands, either. German media site TE Magazin has reported that 40 V3 Supercharger stations are planned for a site in Hilden, located in western Germany near Düsseldorf. The location currently has V2 Superchargers installed, but it is expected to eventually hold 40 V3 Superchargers as well. 

France, Norway, Italy, and Denmark are no different. Reports from the electric vehicle community in these countries have also revealed sites that are intended for Tesla’s V3 Supercharger ramp. In France, for example, a site in Saint-Laurent-sur-Manoire is expected to have eight Supercharger V3 stalls, and in Norway’s Liertoppen location, 12 V3 stalls were planned for mid-March. Denmark’s Ikast site is expected to have 16 stalls, and Italy’s Forli location has 20 V3 Superchargers planned. 

Tesla’s V3 Supercharger ramp is pertinent for the company’s expansion worldwide. As the company ramps the production and deliveries of its high volume vehicles like the Model Y and Model 3, the need for more electric vehicle charging stations also rises. Tesla’s Supercharger V3, which are able to charge at 250 kW without splitting power in between stalls, could cater to numerous vehicles every day, with charging stops being as short as 15 minutes. 

A key aspect of mainstream EV ownership centers on a reliable fast-charging network. Tesla has so far made a lot of headway in this area, though the company needs to expand its network more as its fleet grows. With this in mind, Tesla’s upcoming V3 Supercharger ramp in Europe bodes very well for the company, as well as its growing customer base in the region. 

Tesla’s Supercharger V3 ramp in Europe is about to hit Ludicrous Mode

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Tesla Model Y teardown first impression by Sandy Munro


The Tesla Model Y Performance has officially arrived at Munro and Associates office in Auburn Hills, Michigan, as automotive industry veteran Sandy Munro and his team begin their full teardown of the new all-electric crossover. Munro specified the teardown would consist of a complete disassembly of the vehicle starting from the inside of the car.

The teardown will allow Munro in his team to thoroughly assess Tesla’s newest vehicle by examining the quality of the car from its parts to its build quality. Additionally, Munro clarified that his team would be extremely focused on four main components of the vehicle. These include the lithium-ion batteries, electric vehicle motors, inverter/converter system, and the wire harness.

Munro’s red Model Y was delivered from California to the Munro office on March 30, 2020. Munro offered his first impressions of the vehicle on the following day by complementing the build quality of the crossover. “In the past, we’ve thrown rocks at what Tesla came out with, but I can tell you right from here…this [car] looks in pretty good shape.”

Munro did take his gap gauge to the crossover and noticed an extreme improvement in the vehicle’s build quality compared to the Model 3. Upon inspection, the front driver and front passenger doors were identical from all angles that Munro measured.

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There was a slight discrepancy of just a single millimeter between the two door’s “sills,” or where the bottom of the door meets the frame of the car, but Munro notes the difference would only be visible to some of the most trained eyes. This led to the automotive veteran complimenting Tesla on the vast improvement in the fit and finish between the Model 3 and Model Y.

The gaps located above the Model Y’s lamps were also flawless and indicated a perfect four-millimeter space on each side, allowing Munro to give credit once again.

There were a few gaps that Munro advises Tesla to work on, but he was quite happy that he received an early version of the vehicle because it would allow the Silicon Valley-based carmaker to make improvements as time went on. “I’m sure that [Tesla] will start tuning things in, just as I was certain that the Model 3 would start tuning things in. Again, all in all, not bad,” he said. “For an early-stage product, this is pretty good.”

The rest of the teardown process of the Model Y will consist of multiple live stream events from the Munro headquarters. On Wednesday, April 1, MunroLive will officially kick off its first live stream with a complete analysis of the vehicle, as he will complete a further breakdown of the Model Y from its fit and finish to its thermal system.

On April 14, a live stream of a rapid disassembly of the vehicle will begin at 8 A.M. EST. “Our team will work around the clock until the Model Y is completely disassembled. The team will dig into the intricacies of the batteries, HV electronics, thermal systems, and user interface,” MunroLive.com notes.

The complete teardown will be available for viewing at MunroLive.com. The already completed portions of the teardown, including a description of the teardown process and the first impressions, can be viewed here, or on the Munro Live YouTube channel. Munro’s breakdown of the gap gauge measurements is available below. 

Tesla Model Y teardown first impression by Sandy Munro

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SpaceX CEO Elon Musk’s latest Starship photos reveal surprise landing legs [confirmed]


Update: In a Twitter response to Teslarati’s report, Musk confirmed that SpaceX has already installed six telescoping landing legs on the Starship SN3 prototype.

CEO Elon Musk published new photos of a Starship prototype shortly after it was moved to SpaceX’s South Texas launch pad, revealing the surprise inclusion of already-installed landing legs and hinting at the growing maturity of the rocket’s design.

Published on March 30th and likely taken late on March 29th, Musk’s latest Starship photos offer the best look yet at the massive vehicle’s engine section, where Raptor engines may soon be installed for historic static fire and hop test attempts. First captured in photos taken by local photographer and resident Mary (bocachicagal) on March 28th, speculation about what appeared to be six odd legs immediately kicked off on spaceflight forums. Due to limited publicly-available perspectives and the appendages’ locations inside Starship’s cavernous engine section, there was some limited ambiguity as to whether the steel pieces were truly legs or something closer to general structural support.

Thankfully, Musk’s new photos all but confirmed the former theory, revealing a sextet of hinged legs with a curious stubby appearance and what appears to be a rather simple and elegant design. Most importantly, the unexpected presence of landing legs – while likely cheap to implement – suggests that SpaceX is growing increasingly confident in each subsequent Starship prototype, an encouraging sign for imminent static fire and hop test plans.

Shortly after technicians transported Starship SN3 to the launch pad, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk revealed that landing legs – barely visible here – were already installed on the rocket. (NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)
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In fact, SpaceX filed a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) on March 30th — the biggest confirmation yet that the company is seriously working to prepare Starship SN3 for a Raptor engine static fire test as early as April 1st. Backup dates on the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th are included, leaving a decent amount of breathing room for SpaceX’s Texas team to (hopefully) successfully complete the rocket’s proof test in the next few days.

Possibly preceded by a water pressure test to check for leaks and verify general structural integrity, Starship SN3’s proof test will see the rocket’s methane and oxygen tanks fully filled with cryogenic liquid nitrogen. The tank pressure would then be increased to around 6-8 bar (90-115 psi) to ensure that Starship can handle the thermal and pressure stresses it will experience during launches. Given SpaceX’s recent history, including a partially unintentional Starship Mk1 tank failure in November 2019, the intentional destruction of two Starship test tanks in January 2020, and Starship SN1’s unintentional February 2020 failure, success is still far from guaranteed for Starship SN3.

Starship SN3’s legs and engine section are pictured on March 28th as technicians lift it onto SpaceX’s Boca Chica, Texas launch mount. (NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk’s March 30th photos captured four of Starship SN3’s six surprise landing legs, visible as the shiny, squarish appendages in the right-hand image. (Elon Musk/SpaceX)

Nevertheless, SpaceX seems more confident in Starship SN3 than it was in Starships Mk1 and SN1 – the only other full-scale prototypes to have reached the testing phase. It’s possible that including leg prototypes were cheap and easy enough to be worth installing regardless of SpaceX’s broader confidence in Starship SN3 as a whole. However, it would still be a clear waste of time and resources to install all six landing legs if the internal consensus was to expect a failure in the early phases of SN3 testing.

SpaceX, in other words, seems to believe that Starship SN3 will pass its imminent tank proof test without any major issues. Additionally, the company must be confident in the outcome of the Starship SN3 Raptor static fire(s) expected to immediately follow any successful proof test. SpaceX has successfully demonstrated Raptor several times on flight hardware with the help of the Starhopper development vehicle, but a full-scale Starship is arguably a different animal.

SpaceX is just a day or so away from Starship SN3’s critical tank proof test. (NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)

Regardless, it’s now clearer than ever that SpaceX is confident enough to put a few eggs in the Starship SN3 basket. With landing legs installed, the massive rocket prototype could be ready for a Starhopper-style 150m (500 ft) hop test just a week or so from now. For now, though, Starship SN3 needs to pass a tank proof test, perform a wet dress rehearsal (WDR) with real propellant, and complete one or several Raptor static fires before a flight test will be in its cards. Stay tuned!

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk’s latest Starship photos reveal surprise landing legs [confirmed]

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Tesla delivers next batch of ventilators to NYC hospital amid coronavirus shortages


Tesla and CEO Elon Musk delivered more ventilators to the team at New York City Elmhurst hospital in the Queens borough.

The team at the hospital thanked Tesla for its generosity during the extreme time of need. “Special thanks to @Tesla for a donation of 40 ventilators to our team at NYC Health + Hospitals/Elmhurst #inQueens. These will be essential in the fight against the #coronavirus,” the NYC Health + Hospitals Twitter account said.

Musk responded with a grateful response, thankful that his company could help during the time of extreme need. He also indicated that more ventilators would be available in the case that the hospital needed them.

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Amidst the COVID-19 pandemic, New York City hospitals have been among the most populated medical facilities in the United States as they attempt to treat thousands of people who could be infected with the virus. New York has become known as the epicenter of the virus in the U.S.

The sizeable donation of 40 ventilators from Tesla will be able to assist hundreds of patients in breathing, as COVID-19 is primarily a virus that attacks a victim’s lungs and respiratory system. The virus can begin to disrupt breathing patterns, and some patients who have contracted the virus have pre-existing conditions like asthma need the ventilators to continue to breathe comfortably. Musk has made every effort to disperse these machines to those in need.

New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio stated that Musk would donate “hundreds” of ventilators in total, indicating that this delivery of 40 to Elmhurst is the first of many to the State and City of New York.

One of Musk’s most logical requests concerning the delivery of the ventilators is that the hospitals and healthcare facilities that are inquiring about the machines must need them. Some facilities have ordered or requested an excess of medical supplies such as N95 safety masks. The excessive ordering of these products has caused a shortage in some hospitals. Unfortunately, many of the masks and ventilators that are not available for use are sitting in storage facilities.

This situation led to Musk solidifying his stance on the severity of the virus, but clarifying the panic and overreaction from the public has caused the problem to be much more severe than it needs to be. “Yes. Just as with groceries, the panic is also causing hoarding of ventilators, preventing them from reaching the hospitals where they are needed,” Musk said.

Tesla and Musk have also donated 1,200 ventilator units to the city of Los Angeles after China had an excess of machines. In addition to buying machines and giving them to cities in need, Musk has offered worldwide shipping of ventilators to any Tesla delivery region worldwide. “Only requirement is that the vents are needed immediately for patients, not stored in a warehouse,” the Tesla CEO said.

Tesla delivers next batch of ventilators to NYC hospital amid coronavirus shortages

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SpaceX planning docs reveal Starship’s April Fools› Day testing plans


Planning emails published by Cameron County, Texas officials have revealed a more detailed picture of SpaceX’s April Fools’ Day Starship testing plans.

Published soon after SpaceX CEO Elon Musk confirmed that six landing legs have already been installed on Starship SN3, county documents noted that SpaceX has two Starship tests planned on April 1st. The second test is contingent upon the successful completion of the first, which is scheduled to begin as early as 4pm CDT (21:00 UTC).

SpaceX has built up Starship SN3 – the third full-scale prototype to make it to testing – from a handful a separate steel rings into a ~30m (100 ft) tall, 9m (30 ft) wide rocket. Technically, the hardware SpaceX transported from its Boca Chica, Texas factory to an adjacent launch pad on March 29th is just the bottom ~60% of Starship SN3, but it’s undoubtedly the most important part of the ship. The SN3 tank and engine section now installed on a launch mount represents the business half (give or take) of Starship, itself just the upper stage and spacecraft of SpaceX’s next-generation, fully-reusable rocket.

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Previous full-scale Starship testing – attempted with the Mk1 and SN1 prototypes on November 2019 and February 2020, respectively – have not gone according to plan. However, for each recent Starship testing failure, SpaceX has subsequently completed one or several ‘proof’ tests with smaller tanks, proving that improved construction methods are technically up to the tasks required of them. Most notably, SpaceX completed two Starship tank pressure tests in January 2020, consecutively reaching ~7.5 and ~8.5 bar (110 and 125 psi) – the latter representing a full 40% safety margin on top of the 6 bar minimum Starship needs for orbital flight.

Most recently, SpaceX completed its third Starship test tank campaign in mid-March, proving less than two weeks later that the design fault that destroyed Starship SN1 had already been rectified. Now, Starship SN3 sits at the same test site, representing the hopeful culmination of the many lessons SpaceX has learned from its prolific testing over the last five months.

SpaceX installed Starship SN3 on the launch mount on March 29th and continues to inspect the rocket and complete final checkouts. (NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)

Now, Starship SN3’s first series of ground tests are scheduled to begin as early as 4pm CDT, just half an hour or so from the time this article was published. According to documents shared by Cameron County, SpaceX’s plan is to begin with a room-temperature gas test, likely pressurizing Starship SN3 with nitrogen to check for leaks. By testing with gas (instead of water), completing the initial test would leave Starship free to immediately proceed to a more ambitious test. This is precisely SpaceX’s plan: if Starship passes the nitrogen gas test, Starship SN3 could begin a cryogenic liquid nitrogen proof test just three hours later, kicking off no earlier than 8pm CDT (01:00 UTC, April 2).

Featuring a brand new 4K camera, local resident and SpaceX fan LabPadre’s live stream should offer some exceptional, uninterrupted views if or when SpaceX kicks off Starship SN3’s first tests later today.

SpaceX planning docs reveal Starship’s April Fools› Day testing plans

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Tesla Model Y car covers go the extra mile to protect from indoor and outdoor elements


Tesla has added both indoor and outdoor car covers for its new Model Y all-electric crossover. The two covers, available on the company’s online shop, are made of different materials to ensure the maintenance and protection of the Model Y’s paint in different climates and settings.

The $230 Indoor Model Y car cover sports a clean, silky black satin finish. It fits snugly over the Model Y’s numerous curves and contours, creating a tailor-made fit over the all-electric crossover to protect it from possible damage within an owners garage. Its breathable material also keeps the vehicle protected from the possibility of it overheating during at-home charging, a measure that will protect the vehicle’s battery in the long term.

The description of the Indoor cover is as follows according to the Tesla Shop:

“Stretch satin fits your Tesla like a glove, hugging its contours and protecting the paint finish from dings, scratches, and dust that are imminent with indoor storage. Convenient charge port openings allow for connection to an outlet, and ventilated mesh allow for air flow while charging.”

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Meanwhile, the $300 Outdoor Model Y car cover provides extensive protection to the vehicle in the unpredictable outdoor elements. This grey colored version of the cover made of a Thermoplastic Polyurethane shell covers two layers of woven polyester for added protection. The combination of these three layers adds significant defense to both the paint and bodywork of the Model Y, keeping owners at ease in even the harshest of weather conditions.

While the three outer layers of the cover are sturdy and durable, the inner portion of the cover lined by a soft material allows for easy and smooth installation that will not damage the vehicle’s paint during the application process.

Tesla describes the Outdoor cover on its online shop.

“Shield your Tesla from the harshest of elements with this Outdoor Car Cover. With a middle layer of Thermoplastic Polyurethane and two outer layers of woven polyester, the cover allows for breathability while providing the best water resistance available today. Convenient charge port openings allow for connection to an outlet, and ventilated mesh allow for air flow while charging.”

Both of the Tesla covers include a bag for easy and compact storage when not in use.

With the Model Y just recently being released to the public after the vehicle began its first deliveries in mid-March, Tesla wasted no time releasing additional accessories for the Model Y. These included a brand new passive entry key fob, and these indoor and outdoor suitable car covers.

Tesla Model Y car covers go the extra mile to protect from indoor and outdoor elements

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Rivian electric ambulance wins April Fools after local Fire Dept trolls the unsuspecting


April 1 is a day notorious for lighthearted and satirical jokes that Tesla CEO Elon Musk has taken advantage of in the past. This year, the Normal, Il Fire Department decided to get a bit creative with its April Fools’ joke, posting a photoshopped image of Rivian’s Amazon delivery vans for a supposed “R1A Ambulance.” The vehicle will reportedly be deployed in the area, which happens to be the home of the electric truck maker’s production facility.

The Normal Fire Department tweeted a picture of the fictional emergency vehicle to its Twitter account on April 1. While photoshopped, the fictional vehicle looked compelling, complete with official insignias and a concept for its interior. Normal’s Fire Department noted on a post on its official Facebook page that “The Rivian R1A Ambulance will be built on a similar frame and body as the Amazon.com Prime delivery fleet that will be built at the Normal, Illinois automotive plant.” 

In addition to the tweet showing the exterior of the Rivian-built emergency vehicle, the Normal Fire Department added pictures of the interior of the emergency van in a Facebook post. These pictures rounded out the perfectly timed and tastefully detailed joke, giving the impression that the Normal FD would be transitioning to a fleet of electric ambulances.

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As the unsuspecting fell prey to its April Fools’ prank, the Normal Fire Department eventually explained that its “Rivian R1A” post was in fact a joke. “Normally, we don’t have to put out a ‘April Fools’ because our ideas are pretty far fetched, but apparently our electric ambulance was gaining some media attention so wanted to make sure everyone knew that it is absolutely, 100% NOT REAL. Thanks for playing along, @Rivian,” the department’s Twitter wrote in a later post.

During this challenging time, it’s good to come together and find humor and compassion, especially while many of us are stuck at home. The lighthearted nature of the Normal FD’s April Fools’ joke solidifies the fact that many of us can continue to find points in a new environment where positivity is hard to come by. April Fools is a time to lighten our spirits, and the Normal Fire Department certainly deserves kudos as they’ve put a smile on many faces with this well-timed joke.

Credit: Facebook | Normal Fire Department

As for Rivian, the electric truck maker recently released an update on the construction of its production facility located in Normal, Illinois. The update was filmed just before the company temporarily shut down facilities to “help slow the spread of COVID-19,” more commonly known as the coronavirus.

Rivian labeled its video as a “Progress Report,” where numerous workers inside the plant detail what the company is currently doing to get the two-and-a-half-million square foot facility prepared to begin building all-electric pickups and SUVs starting in early 2021. Rivian will initially build around 20,000 to 40,000 R1T and R1S vehicles at the plant starting next year.

A worker navigating the site recognizes the facility as a “construction project that is soon to be a car plant.” While the coronavirus has halted the work at the plant temporarily, Rivian did not indicate that the pause in construction would push back delivery dates for any of its vehicles. The facility was formerly a manufacturing plant owned by Japanese carmaker Mitsubishi that was purchased for $16 million in January 2017.

Watch Rivian’s update of its production plant in Normal, Illinois, below.

Rivian electric ambulance wins April Fools after local Fire Dept trolls the unsuspecting

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Tesla China is sending out a ‹mysterious› letter, hinting at potential Model 3 update


A recent post from Tesla China’s official Weibo account appears to be teasing an upcoming major announcement, with the electric car maker sending out a “mysterious” letter to its community. Based on Tesla China’s upload, it appears that something significant will be revealed or announced tomorrow. 

The Weibo post is comprised of a dark poster that features an envelope with the words “Tesla” on it. At the top of the image was a rather cryptic set of sentences, which roughly translated to “Live your life like you mean it. No playing tricks. To all the enthusiasm from the heart.” This is a pretty interesting set of statements, though the assurance that the announcement won’t be a joke may be a reference to April 1 being April Fools’ Day in the United States. 

Tesla, especially its CEO Elon Musk, is known to post playful announcements on the first of April. Musk, for one, caused much furor in Wall St. after posting an April Fools’ picture of himself passed out against a Model 3 after Tesla supposedly went “bankwupt.”

(Credit: Tesla China/Weibo)
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Tesla, as a company, has not been shy with its April Fools’ jokes either. One year the company posted a video on its official YouTube channel introducing “Ticket Avoidance Mode.” Tesla enthusiasts still have a soft spot for that particular prank video to this day. 

Tesla’s recent post on Weibo also advised the company’s social media followers that the mysterious message will be revealed tomorrow. Roughly translated, the words at the bottom of the image reads “A mysterious letter from Tesla is being sent out…. Please stay online to receive it. We will see you tomorrow.”

The contents of Tesla’s cryptic letter hold several possibilities. Considering the social media campaign that the electric car maker rolled out for it, there seems to be a fair chance that the letter will hold an important announcement about the company, its operations, or its current lineup of products. Several Weibo users seem to be in the latter’s camp, with some speculating that the letter may reveal the date for the release of the Made-in-China Model 3’s Long Range version. 

So far, Tesla’s Gigafactory Shanghai has been producing the Standard Range Plus versions of the Model 3 sedan. The vehicle is positioned well in the Chinese market, being priced aggressively at RMB299,050 (about $42,000) with basic Autopilot. But since the Standard Range Plus version is a bang-for-your-buck EV in China, Tesla’s potential in the local market will be even larger with the addition of more variants. 

Hints at another Model 3 version came in February when Tesla filed for an approval for a new version of the vehicle. Tesla did not list the specific trim of the Model 3 that it was filing for, but its weight suggested that it may very well be the Long range RWD version. This vehicle was formally approved by Chinese regulators early in March. 

Considering the hints shared by Tesla China in its recent Weibo post, it appears that the electric car maker has something up its sleeve. If speculations prove right, then Gigafactory Shanghai may very well end up expanding its vehicle lineup soon.

H/T @Tesla__Mania for the English translations used in this piece.

Tesla China is sending out a ‹mysterious› letter, hinting at potential Model 3 update

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SpaceX’s second astronaut launch a step closer after NASA announcement


SpaceX’s second astronaut launch is a a step closer to flight after NASA and JAXA announced the third and fourth astronauts assigned to ride Crew Dragon to the International Space Station (ISS) on its first operational mission.

On the cusp of March 30th and 31st, the Japanese Space Agency (JAXA) made the first Crew Dragon-related announcement of the day, revealing the assignment of astronaut Soichi Noguchi to SpaceX’s Crew-1 launch. Hinging entirely on the success of SpaceX’s imminent Demo-2 astronaut launch debut, a critical demonstration mission scheduled to launch no earlier than mid-to-late May 2020, Crew Dragon’s Crew-1 mission will be the spacecraft’s first operational mission ferrying humans to and from the space station. NASA followed up JAXA’s announced hours later, revealing that astronaut Shannon Walker would be the fourth and final crew member aboard Crew Dragon’s Crew-1 launch.

Including Boeing’s Starliner and SpaceX’s Crew Dragon crewed demonstration missions, known as the Crewed Flight Test and Demonstration Mission 2 (Demo-2 or DM-2), respectively, NASA has purchased six astronaut launches from both providers. In theory, one Starliner and Crew Dragon launch per year – spaced out six or so months apart – should be enough to meet NASA’s space station transportation needs, meaning that the space agency’s 12 contracts should last until 2025 or 2026. Boeing’s Starliner appears to be delayed indefinitely after multiple near-catastrophic failures on its first Orbital Flight Test (OFT) but if SpaceX’s Demo-2 mission goes as planned, Crew Dragon could be set to enter operational duty as early as Q4 2020.

NASA and JAXA have officially assigned a full complement of crew to SpaceX’s second Crew Dragon astronaut launch. (NASA)
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SpaceX’s Crew-1 mission manifest now includes NASA astronauts Mike Hopkins, Victor Glover, and Shannon Walker, as well as JAXA astronaut Soichi Noguchi and will likely carry an additional 100-200 kg (200-400 lb) of cargo to the International Space Station (ISS). While all eyes are reasonably on Crew Dragon’s Demo-2 mission, right now, the spacecraft’s Crew-1 through -5 missions are where SpaceX has the opportunity to gain extensive experience launching humans on an operational, semi-routine basis.

Making up at least half of the backbone of NASA’s new domestic astronaut launch capabilities, Crew Dragon and Falcon 9 will hopefully prove themselves to be as reliable and dependable as they and their predecessors have been over the years. Cargo Dragon, SpaceX’s first orbital-class spacecraft and the first private vehicle to visit the ISS, has successfully resupplied the space station and safely returned to Earth each of the 20 times the spacecraft reached orbit. Unsurprisingly, SpaceX ran into intermittent technical issues over those numerous flights, but all of those anomalies were solved on the fly and never prevented mission success or spacecraft recovery.

SpaceX’s Cargo Dragon spacecraft is just a week or so away from completing its last ISS resupply mission. (NASA)

Falcon 9’s first in-flight failure destroyed the CRS-7 Cargo Dragon spacecraft in June 2015 and cut the mission short before it could reach orbit, but the failure was entirely unrelated to Dragon. Falcon 9’s second catastrophic failure occurred less than 15 months later, also a fault of a small but explosive rocket design flaw. From January 2017 to March 2020, however, Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets have completed 58 consecutively successful launches. With that streak of success, by certain measures, Falcon has become the most reliable operational rocket family in the world, tied with ULA’s famously reliable Atlas V and slightly better than Arianespace’s Ariane 5.

In short, while Cargo Dragon can’t hold a candle to the sheer scale of Russia’s Soyuz and Progress spacecraft flight histories, Falcon 9 is one of the two most reliable launch vehicles in operation and Crew Dragon will stand on the back of one of the most reliable spacecraft ever built in recent history. With (perhaps more than a little) luck, Boeing’s Starliner spacecraft – launched atop Atlas V, the other most reliable operational rocket – will hopefully be able to develop its own record of reliability in the next several years, but it will never be able to compete with the Cargo Dragon heritage Crew Dragon directly benefits from.

Boeing’s Starliner and SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft stand vertical at their respective launch pads in December 2019 and January 2020. Crew Dragon has now performed two successful full-up launches to Starliner’s lone partial failure. (Richard Angle)

Boeing’s next Starliner mission is up in the air after the spacecraft’s almost disastrous orbital launch debut. Most likely, NASA will require a second uncrewed flight test, this time including the space station rendezvous, docking, and departure attempt Boeing had to cancel after Starliner’s major software failure. A second OFT would likely be ready for flight no earlier than Q3 or Q4 2020, depending on NASA’s investigation findings and requirements. If NASA remains confident and things go perfectly during the likely OFT2 mission, Starliner’s Crew Flight Test (CFT) could maybe launch by the end of 2020.

Crew Dragon’s Demo-2 astronaut launch debut is aiming for what NASA says is a mid-to-late May launch, although the mission is more likely to fly in the late-May to mid-June time frame. If Demo-2 launches on schedule (H1 2020) and is as flawless as Crew Dragon’s uncrewed Demo-1 launch debut, SpaceX could be ready to launch its second astronaut mission (Crew-1) as early as Q4 2020, possibly around the start of the quarter. With so much contingent on near-term reviews and tests, schedules beyond Demo-2 are unsurprisingly fluid.

SpaceX’s second astronaut launch a step closer after NASA announcement

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